Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Why the Sell-off May Not be Very Meaningful

Serge Berger is the head trader and investment strategist for The Steady Trader
. Sign up for his free weekly newsletter . Friday morning greeted us with lower
equity futures, and the S&P 500 closed the day down 2.53% bringing its two-day
sell-off to 3.7%. The weak August jobs report led more investors to again
embrace the "risk off" trade as they sold equities and piled into gold,
silver and bonds. August job growth was zero making it the weakest performance
for non-farm payrolls in almost a year. The rally in the 10-year U.S. Treasury
note pushed its yield below 2%, to 1.99%, and just a smidge off its all-time low
of 1.97% set last month. The S&P 500 found support right at the key 61.8%
Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from Aug. 26 to Aug. 31 (month-end
rally). While the index is holding on by a thread here, it is also noteworthy
that the MACD has not yet reached overbought territory and our 1,240-1,260 area
on the upside hasn't been met yet. By the way, that area corresponds with a
retest of the 50-day simple moving average from underneath, which is something
the S&P 500 has almost always done after breaking multi-year uptrend moves such
as it did in early August.

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