Quick what's the one stock you feel comfortable owning right now? If you
said Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ), you're not alone. Among large-cap stocks, there
aren't many that offer the combination of Apple's massive balance sheet,
strong organic growth and promise of future catalysts in the form of hot new
products in the pipeline. It's no surprise, then, that the stock has
outperformed both the S&P 500 and the broader tech sector since the market
started going south at the beginning of May. While Apple garners all the
headlines, it isn't the only tech stock to outshine its large-cap peers in
recent months. A look at the numbers shows meaningful outperformance for seven
of the eight largest tech stocks since the April 29 top: Looking at this, one
would think that the tech sector as a whole has been a safe haven through the
market downturn. In fact, that's been anything but the case. Beneath the $50
billion market-cap cut-off, the numbers are not nearly as positive. In fact, 14
out of the next 20 largest U.S.-domiciled tech stocks have failed to keep up
with the S&P 500 since the market started to roll over. Granted, some of these
companies are stock-specific stories that would have underperformed in any
market. Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ ), Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM ) and
Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO ) are names that jump out from the list. Still, the table
below shows that it isn't necessarily accurate to talk about "technology's
outperformance." So what's driving the outperformance of the largest tech
stocks? The simple answer is, of course, fundamentals. In terms of their
earnings, balance sheets and market positions, these companies are much better
equipped to deal with macroeconomic headwinds than most stocks in the financial
or cyclical sectors. How long stocks like Apple, Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN ), and
Google (NASDAQ: GOOG ) remain immune to a slowing economy is up for debate, but
for now it has paid handsomely to stick with what's working. There's more to
this story than just fundamentals, however. If an equity-only fund manager needs
a hiding place, he or she doesn't have the option to buy gold or Treasuries.
The logical safe haven is large-cap, cash-rich companies with stories that have
a demonstrated ability to keep growing despite the slow economy. More to the
point, there's no "career risk" to holding Apple in your portfolio right
now. In short, these stocks have become a safe haven for dedicated-equity
managers that have nowhere else to hide. The result is that the large-cap tech
trade has become very crowded. In the short term, that doesn't matter as long
as the markets remain weak, this trade can keep working. But once the market
stabilizes and managers move back to the "risk-on" trade, these
outperforming stocks likely will represent a source of funds. The bottom line:
Ride this wave of remarkable outperformance for the largest tech stocks as far
as it will go. But recognize it for what it is, and be ready to look elsewhere
for opportunities once the VIX makes it back to the mid-20s.
Friday, September 23, 2011
Should You Buy the Dow — Walt Disney
Today, well look at Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS ). You know its a diversified
entertaiment conglomerate, but how diversified is it? The companys Media
Networks segment includes TV production and networks (including ABC and ESPN);
46 owned radio stations; and Disney-branded Internet Web site businesses, as
well as Club Penguin. The Parks and Resorts segment owns and operates well, you
know. It also includes Disney Vacation Club, Disney Cruise Line and ESPN Zone
facilities. The Studio Entertainment makes movies, music and live stage plays.
The Consumer Products segment licenses Disney characters, and visual and
literary properties to manufacturers, retailers, show promoters and publishers;
and publishes books and magazines. The key driving factor regarding Disney is
the economy. However, because the company is so diversified, certain segments do
worse than others in hard times, and others are able to hold their own. On the
movie side, the purchases of Pixar and Marvel Studios really drive company
revenues. These two premium studios execute flawlessly none of their films have
ever lost money and, in fact, recently have been outrageously profitable. Stock
analysts looking out five years on Disney see annualized earnings growth at 15%.
At a stock price of $32, on FY 2011 earnings of $2.49, the stock presently
trades at a P/E of 13. Time Warner (NYSE: TWX ) and Viacom (NYSE: VIA ) are the
closest competitors, with P/Es of 13 and 25, respectively, so Disney is on the
low end of the valuation scale. Disneys financials are stellar. The company
carries $3.5 billion in cash and $9.2 billion in debt. Trailing 12-month cash
flow was $3.7 billion. The company also had 4.5 times the amount of free cash
flow necessary to pay its 1.2% dividend. Disney makes a lot of money and
reinvests that cash right back into its gigantic business (movies cost a lot of
money). No insider purchases have been made in a long time, which is
discouraging but not a deal-breaker. Conclusion If we put an 15 P/E on Disney,
then, on projected 2015 earnings of $4.43 per share, and factor in 1.2%
compounded dividend yield reinvested, we get a price target of $72. Thats an
amazing total return of 120% from here, suggesting Disney falls into the
category of both a value and a growth stock. Disney is a big buy to me. I
believe Disney is a buy for regular accounts. I believe Disney is a buy for
retirement accounts. Lawrence Meyers does not own shares of any company
mentioned.
entertaiment conglomerate, but how diversified is it? The companys Media
Networks segment includes TV production and networks (including ABC and ESPN);
46 owned radio stations; and Disney-branded Internet Web site businesses, as
well as Club Penguin. The Parks and Resorts segment owns and operates well, you
know. It also includes Disney Vacation Club, Disney Cruise Line and ESPN Zone
facilities. The Studio Entertainment makes movies, music and live stage plays.
The Consumer Products segment licenses Disney characters, and visual and
literary properties to manufacturers, retailers, show promoters and publishers;
and publishes books and magazines. The key driving factor regarding Disney is
the economy. However, because the company is so diversified, certain segments do
worse than others in hard times, and others are able to hold their own. On the
movie side, the purchases of Pixar and Marvel Studios really drive company
revenues. These two premium studios execute flawlessly none of their films have
ever lost money and, in fact, recently have been outrageously profitable. Stock
analysts looking out five years on Disney see annualized earnings growth at 15%.
At a stock price of $32, on FY 2011 earnings of $2.49, the stock presently
trades at a P/E of 13. Time Warner (NYSE: TWX ) and Viacom (NYSE: VIA ) are the
closest competitors, with P/Es of 13 and 25, respectively, so Disney is on the
low end of the valuation scale. Disneys financials are stellar. The company
carries $3.5 billion in cash and $9.2 billion in debt. Trailing 12-month cash
flow was $3.7 billion. The company also had 4.5 times the amount of free cash
flow necessary to pay its 1.2% dividend. Disney makes a lot of money and
reinvests that cash right back into its gigantic business (movies cost a lot of
money). No insider purchases have been made in a long time, which is
discouraging but not a deal-breaker. Conclusion If we put an 15 P/E on Disney,
then, on projected 2015 earnings of $4.43 per share, and factor in 1.2%
compounded dividend yield reinvested, we get a price target of $72. Thats an
amazing total return of 120% from here, suggesting Disney falls into the
category of both a value and a growth stock. Disney is a big buy to me. I
believe Disney is a buy for regular accounts. I believe Disney is a buy for
retirement accounts. Lawrence Meyers does not own shares of any company
mentioned.
Gold Price Lost $174.60 or -10.7% and the Silver Price Lost $10.73 or -35.7% This Week
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DG365FD46564GFH654FU898 Gold Price Close Today : 1,637.50 Gold Price Close 16-Sep : 1,812.10 Change : -174.60 or -10.7% Silver Price Close Today : 30.05 Silver Price Close 16-Sep : 40.78 Change : -10.73 or -35.7% Platinum Price Close Today : 1,613.20 Platinum Price Close 16-Sep : 1,813.90 Change : -200.70 or -12.4% Palladium Price Close Today : 640.75 Palladium Price Close 16-Sep : 731.20 Change : -90.45 or -14.1% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.49 Gold Silver Ratio 16-Sep : 44.44 Change : 10.06 or 1.23% Dow Industrial : 10,733.83 Dow Industrial 16-Sep: 11,509.09 Change : -775.26 or -7.2% US Dollar Index : 78.38 US Dollar Index 16-Sep : 76.24 Change : 2.14 or 2.7% Franklin Sanders will not be writing commentary today, he will return on Monday the 26th of September.
Zynga IPO: The Game Just Got Harder
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tdp2664 InvestorPlace Wasn't Zynga supposed to be a slam-dunk IPO? It sure seemed like it when the company filed its S-1 back in early July. But of course, since then the equities markets have experienced extreme volatility. As a result, Zynga has delayed its offering. But Zynga might have more to worry about. According to its latest filing, the company has experienced a slowdown in the business. In the second quarter, Zynga attracted 59 million average daily users, which compares to 62 million in the prior quarter. As a result, bookings dropped by about 4% — this never has happened for Zynga. The problem? The company has had a dry spell with its games. Let's face it: Zynga's audience can be extremely fickle. And it is getting more expensive to develop social games. In the latest quarter, Zynga hiked expenses as profits plunged from $16.8 million to $1.4 million. During the past year, the headcount has gone from 1,483 to 2,451. Zynga also is feeling strong competitive pressures, especially from Electronic Arts ( NASDAQ : ERTS ). Once considered a has-been, the company has made some savvy acquisitions, such as for Playfish and PopCap. Electronic Arts also has been leveraging its extensive gaming franchises. For example, it launched “The Sims Social” title just three months ago and it already is the No. 2 game on Facebook, with 53 million monthly active users. Zynga still is a great company and is growing at a rapid clip, so the company still should be able to pull off its IPO. As seen with the shares of LinkedIn (NYSE: LNKD ), investors still are hungry for social plays. But Zynga might have to get more realistic about its valuation. And during the next couple years, it is likely Zynga’s growth rate will continue to trail off as more competition enters the market. Tom Taulli is the author of "All About Short Selling" and "All About Commodities." You can also find him at Twitter account @ttaulli. He does not own a position in any of the stocks named here.
‘Operation Twist’ Snaps
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tdp2664 InvestorPlace This week's global selling panic that was triggered but the Fed's worrisome comments, major bank credit downgrades, continued fears of an imminent Greek default and just generally everybody and their dog running for the exit at the same time. Many Fed watchers are shocked at the adverse reaction to the Fed's $400 billion "Operation Twist," where it purposely flattens the yield curve via bond swaps, which normally would cause money to flee low yielding investments into stocks. However, the fact the Fed said after its Federal Open Market Committee meeting that there are "significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets" effectively caused Asian and European investors to sell everything, including gold and other commodities. As a result, in the aftermath of the selling capitulation, there could be an incredible buying opportunity at hand. Long-term Treasury yields are at record lows and the 30-year Treasury bond just had its biggest rally since 2008, resulting in plunging yields and the commensurate price increases of Treasury securities. Operation Twist essentially is expanding the Fed's "0% interest rate policy” farther out the yield curve. The three-month Treasury bill now yields 0%, the six-month Treasury bill 0.03%, the one-year Treasury note 0.1%, the two-year Treasury note 0.2%, the three-year Treasury note 0.34% and the five-year Treasury bond 0.79%. Eventually, I predict that the Fed will push the five-year Treasury bond yield to 0.5% or less after Operation Twist is over. Interestingly, the Fed also announced a new plan to purchase mortgage-backed securities to help the banking industry, which still needs help — see Bank of America (NYSE: BAC ). In a way, the Fed essentially is forcing investors to buy stocks, since the S&P 500's dividend yield is significantly higher than most bond yields. One of my favorite economists, Ed Yardeni, said Thursday that "Pretzels should be twisted, not monetary policy." Clearly, the Fed's actions appear increasingly desperate. The 7-to-3 split FOMC vote does not help to instill confidence either. On Tuesday, Yardeni pointed out that, relative to bond yields, the S&P 500 should be trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 51.2 versus 11.3. So that essentially means the S&P 500 has to climb 400% to be fairly valued relative to bonds. Only a "crisis of confidence” — very similar to when Jimmy Carter was president — can explain why stock valuations are so out of whack relative to bonds. The only thing that is certain is that the S&P 500 has a higher average dividend yield than long-term Treasury bonds, so I expect there will be more bargain hunting by institutional investors. Companies continue to issue new bonds at ultra-low interest rates to buy back their stock, which in turn boosts their earnings per share. So in a way, the stock market has an increasingly firm foundation despite all the gloom and doom. I wouldn't be surprised to see a big rally next week as companies scramble to buy back their stock by the end of the quarter to help boost their earnings per share before the upcoming third-quarter earnings announcement season — just like the stock market staged a similar rally in late June as the second quarter drew to a close. It appears what we're seeing in the market this week is a classic overreaction. The Fed's statements, coupled with renewed fears about a Greek debt default, have made plenty of skittish investors even more nervous, but the bottom line is this could be an incredible buying opportunity for long-term investors.
10 Dying (or Dead) Brands Netflix Hopes to Learn From
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tdp2664 InvestorPlace Netflix ( NASDAQ : NFLX ) CEO Reed Hastings all but admitted the old Netflix model is slowly decaying. Netflix stock was slammed on news it lost 1 million disgruntled subscribers after launching a dual-pricing model, then the Netflix founder dashed off a now infamous apology that was more self-justification than a mea culpa. In that missive, Reed Hastings actually had a very important statement we should all focus on: “Most companies that are great at something — like AOL dialup or Borders bookstores — do not become great at new things people want (streaming for us) because they are afraid to hurt their initial business. Eventually these companies realize their error of not focusing enough on the new thing, and then the company fights desperately and hopelessly to recover. Companies rarely die from moving too fast, and they frequently die from moving too slowly.” Say what you want about Netflix stock, its CEO and the rather ham-handed split of DVD and streaming businesses. At least NFLX acknowledges that DVDs are not long for this world and that Netflix can't continue in its current form forever. That's a hard lesson many companies don't learn. So while everyone is giving Reed Hastings and NFLX a poor review right now, consider the alternative: Netflix could be in the same boat as these once-popular consumer businesses that are now in very dire straits: America Online: Yes, AOL (NYSE: AOL ) still is around. Yes, it has next to zero debt, and creditors are what drive a company to bankruptcy. But Hastings was right to call it out in his memo to customers. This once-powerful Internet company is now the poster child for struggling tech companies that haven't adapted. As InvestorPlace author and former AOLer Jonathan Berr reported recently , AOL's subscription business generated $201.3 million, or 37% of AOL's $542.2 million in Q2. Yet the company finished the second quarter with a loss of more than $11 million because dial-up revenue slumped 23%. Just imagine what will happen as this inevitable trend continues. With a mess of an org chart after the Huffington Post buyout and layoffs this spring and disgruntled Tech Crunch blogger Michael Arrington airing the company's dirty laundry in public … well, you wonder how long AOL can carry on. Yahoo: In a very similar boat is Yahoo ( NASDAQ : YHOO ), which recently has stolen the spotlight from AOL thanks to the ugly ouster of Carol Bartz . The company's once-impressive search capabilities are now just a storefront for Microsoft ‘s ( NASDAQ : MSFT ) Bing as the pair try to fend of the monster that is Google (NASDAQ: GOOG ). In regards to display advertising and content, Yahoo is doing better than AOL — but revenue is tracking off about 15% in fiscal 2011 compared with the previous year. And that's on top of a slight decline from 2009 to 2010. A change in leadership might rally the troops or spark interest in a private equity buyout, but it doesn't stop the bleeding at Yahoo. As portal sites for legacy email addresses wane and Facebook and smartphone apps become the new way to get news, Yahoo will continue to suffer. Nokia: It's a testament to how fast technology changes that a company that is in many respects dominant right now still can be panicking and expecting certain doom. If you've never read the infamous "burning platform" memo from Nokia (NYSE: NOK ) CEO Stephen Elop, I highly recommend doing so in its entirety. In a nutshell, the company leader admits Nokia has nothing close to Android or Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) iPhone gadgets and has a stark choice — stand on its current platform of fading dominance as it burns to the waterline, or jump into the cold ocean waters and hope the company can swim somewhere before it freezes to death. Think that's hyperbole? Well consider this: Nokia had an approximate 32% market share of the 1.43 billion mobile handsets shipped in 2010. That is simply stunning. Its share of the North American market? Just 4%. Presuming the rest of the world will soon want what U.S. smartphone users want and will follow this trend, the writing is on the wall.
Be Calm, Hold Your Silver and Gold Positions
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DG365FD46564GFH654FU898 Gold Price Close Today : 1,637.70 Gold Price Close 16-Sep : 1,812.10 Change : -174.40 or -9.6% Silver Price Close Today : 3006 Silver Price Close 16-Sep : 4078.1 Change : -1072.10 or -26.3% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.48 Gold Silver Ratio 16-Sep : 44.43 Change : 10.05 or 22.6% Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01836 Silver Gold Ratio 16-Sep : 0.02250 Change : -0.00415 or -18.4% Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 135.96 Dow in Gold Dollars 16-Sep : $ 131.29 Change : $ 4.67 or 3.6% Dow in Gold Ounces : 6.577 Dow in Gold Ounces 16-Sep : 6.351 Change : 0.23 or 3.6% Dow in Silver Ounces : 358.33 Dow in Silver Ounces 16-Sep : 282.22 Change : 76.12 or 27.0% Dow Industrial : 10,771.48 Dow Industrial 16-Sep : 11,509.09 Change : -737.61 or -6.4% S&P 500 : 1,136.00 S&P 500 16-Sep : 1,216.01 Change : -80.01 or -6.6% US Dollar Index : 78.356 US Dollar Index 16-Sep : 76.623 Change : 1.73 or 2.3% Platinum Price Close Today : 1,610.40 Platinum Price Close 16-Sep : 1,805.90 Change : -195.50 or -10.8% Palladium Price Close Today : 641.10 Palladium Price Close 16-Sep : 732.90 Change : -91.80 or -12.5% When I saw today’s prices, I rushed back to send y’all a commentary. Since I claim to be nothing more than a natural born fool from Tennessee, I might not have anything to say worth hearing. Might just add more fog to an already foggy situation, but here goes. No way to tell what final straw will break a market’s back. Markets are human phenomena, and who knows what causes crowds to panic? Stocks, silver, and gold were all set to drop and the US dollar to rise. Something pushed them over the edge. Bloomberg News, which always tells the truth (when it’s convenient), said today US stocks fell for their biggest weekly loss since 2008. In four days stocks lost $1.1 trillion in value. Wednesday and Thursday alone the Dow lost 5.9%. Cause they assigned to this effect was the Fed’s warning Wednesday that risks to the economy have increased. Right, and fire is hot, too. Clearly, the public perceives that nobody in authority on the North American or European continents has a clue what to do. Today the Dow dead-cat-bounced to 10,771.48, up 37.65 points or 0.35%, hardly amounting to a rounding error. S&P500 rose 0.61% or 6.87 to 1,136. Today’s 10,638 low took the Dow back to its August low, setting it up for a fall THRU that low on Monday. Point and Figure chart gives a target of 9,600 [sic]. Big break. Follow thru Monday will confirm whether it will fall much further, but I don’t know how you could draw any other conclusion. Stocks — as much fun as pouring vinegar on a broken tooth. Thursday the US DOLLAR INDEX broke through 78 resistance and rose 118.5 basis points to 78.489. Today it rose pennies to 78.50, but the trend is confirmed. Dollar index has now (1) broken through its upper trading channel line, (2) traded through its 200 day moving average, now 76.10), and (3) broken above 78, a height not seen since last February. Man’d be a fool to stand in the way of this. Dollar is rallying, and may reach 81.50 OR EVEN MUCH HIGHER. That throws a headwind into the paths of silver and gold. This will keep up until falling stocks and screams of deflation scare Ben the Bernancubus so badly that he pumps out more dollars. What y’all must not do is lose your head while everybody else is panicking. Don’t become confused, mistaking short term moves for long term changes. NOTHING HAS CHANGED. SYSTEM IS UNALTERED. The Keynesian fools (takes a fool to know one) in government and central banking will keep on applying the same failed “cures” and keep on avoiding any real medicine. Thus after a correction, silver and gold will come roaring back. Euro bounced a little today, up 0.23% to close at 1.3491 on its way to 1.2000 [sic]. Watch and see if it doesn’t. If the yen can remain above 130c (Y76.9 = $1) it will prove a breakout and move even higher. Danger with looking at past performance is that your mind inevitably forces that pattern onto today’s movements, so that you expect things to follow the past exactly. Doesn’t work that way: it only gives us a general comparison. With that waning, let’s look at how GOLD and SILVER PRICES acted back in 2008. Remember that the mortgage bubble popped then, precipitating a banking crisis in the US, like that today in European banks with sovereign debt. GOLD topped 18 March 2008 at $1,003.20, then ** The GOLD PRICE fell to a correction low 1 May at $848.90 ** Climbed to a correction high of $977.70 on 15 July, ** broke down at about $900 on 4 August, and ** waterfalled to $786 (down 14.5%) by 18 August ** went lower, then rose to $900 on 22 September, and ** fell to a final bottom at $704.90 on 13 November, down 30% from the March peak. ** from the August break to the November low 97 days passed. The SILVER PRICE topped 5 March 2008 at 2068.50c, then **fell to a 1 May correction low at 1612c ** rose to 14 July at 1917.5c, then dropped gently and ** broke on 6 August at 1650c into a waterfall ** plunging to 1049c (down 36.4% in that break) on 11 Sept, ** dropped more, then rose to 1345.8c on 26 September, and ** fell to double bottoms 28 Oct and 13 Nov. at 880c, down 57.5% from the March peak. ** From the August break to the November low, 98 days elapsed. SILVER and GOLD will not repeat these exact numbers, but should follow that same general pattern. Tops in 2011 came in May, and events have not played out exactly the same. This time gold’s first correction recovery high (top of B wave) ran much higher than the previous $1,577 peak, but once again silver’s recovery has not been nearly as vigorous as gold’s. Okay, smart guy, if all this is so, why didn’t you tell us before? Because I couldn’t be sure metals were following the same pattern until they broke this week. More than that, scared money was running into gold, driving it up all summer. Big question to deal with now is whether this is a relatively minor correction, or whether it will correct the entire move from the 2008 lows to the 2011 highs. Not so fast, Jack! Gold’s $1,637.70 closing price today was only about 15% lower than its peak — not a major correction yet. Today’s silver close, 3006c, is 38.1% lower than its 4858 peak last day of April. Not huge for silver. Yet this waterfall makes me expect lower prices still. Based on 2008′s performance, a bottom can be expected sometime in December, if silver and gold are following that 2008 track. Most of all, 2008 offered us a gigantic opportunity to swap gold for for silver when the ratio reached 83.5. Applying that 2008 correction of the gold/silver ratio from 46.677 to 83.5 or 179% of the low, the ratio this time around would reach 57.24. Whoa! Today’s ratio was 54.481, taking it higher faster than expected. That reminds me that this correction ought not to take as long as 2008′s because the market is in a later, more violent and speedier stage of development. So we will want to trade gold for silver very shortly. Watch it every day. That break through 45 in the ratio over the last 2 days will send it rocketing upward. Today’s market in gold was raw, bloody carnage. Comex gold dropped $101.70 (5.8%) to $1,637.70, on top of losing $66.40 yesterday, a total of 9.5% in two days. Low today came at $1,629.50. Targets are the 150 day moving average, which has contained every decline in the last year. It’s now at $1,573. Another target is the 200 dma at $1,522.65. The 150 dma nests with lateral support about $1,575. If gold falls through $1,478, it could drop to $1,432.50, down about 25% from its $1,920 high. The SILVER PRICE lost 674c today or 17.7%. I don’t recall seeing any drop that large in since 1980. That was added to a 9.7% loss yesterday, or 27.4% in the past two days. Silver has broken to a new lower low in the correction from its end-April high. May intraday low was 3230c. Low today was 2999c, and Comex close came at 3006c. What about targets? Silver has dropped through its 300 day moving average (now 3143c), which hasn’t happened since 2008. Lateral support stands at 2630c, the February 2011 low, then at a congestion area about 1950c – 2000c. A 57.5% correction repeating 2008′s performance would take silver to 2064.7c. The area from 3127c to 2630c offers considerable support. Point and Figure target is 1600c. Again I warn y’all not to lose your heads. Be calm, hold your silver and gold positions, alertly watch for the opportunity to swap gold for silver and to buy more gold and silver at panic prices. Lift your eyes up to the horizon, look at the long term, not at the bumpy road right in front of your hood, otherwise you’ll run off the road into an oak tree. It’s been a hard week. Y’all go home, kiss your wife or husband and your children, and think about this: “Behold, it is good and comely for one to eat and to drink and to enjoy the good of all his labor that he takes under the sun all the days of his life, which God giveth him: for it is his portion. “Live joyfully with the wife whom thou lovest all the days of thy vanity . . . For that is thy portion in this life, and in thy labour which thou takest under the sun.” Y’all enjoy your weekend! Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt — – Gold and silver must be bought. – Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com © 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold’s primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver’s primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks’ primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write “Stay out of stocks” readers inevitably ask, “Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?” No, I don’t. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don’t intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.
After Solyndra, Sun May Set on All Solar Stocks
There has been a lot of fuss recently about the Solyndra debacle. About a year
ago, President Barack Obama toured the solar energy company and touted its
photovoltaic systems as a perfect example of so-called "cleantech" growth
that would create high-tech, high-paying jobs. Unfortunately and despite a $535
million loan guarantee from the Department of Energy Solyndra filed for
bankruptcy this month, terminating all 1,100 workers. To make matters worse, the
FBI recently raided offices, and now Congressional hearings are revealing very
sloppy spending in the wake of Uncle Sam's endorsement. We can debate the
Solyndra failure as a talking point for the 2012 election another time. What
investors really should be concerned with is the dark clouds gathering over the
entire solar sector. Just take a look at the performance at some of the biggest
names in the solar sector: Evergreen Solar (PINK: ESLRQ ) plummeted to about a
dollar in late 2010 as it tried to restructure its debt. Now it trades for about
a nickel after a 1-for-6 split in January and has been relegated to the pink
sheets. That recent flop would be bad enough, but when you consider that shares
traded for an adjusted price of $12 or so at this time in 2009, the losses look
even uglier. Evergreen filed for bankruptcy in August to try and scrape together
the $485 million it owes creditors and soon will disappear forever. First Solar
(NASDAQ: FSLR ) is the "leader" among pure-play solar stocks in the U.S.,
with a market capitalization of almost $6 billion. FSLR stock is down 48% since
Jan. 1, 2011. The leader by most measures in the industry, First Solar saw its
profits slashed by more than half from $159 million to $61 million – as
Europe's debt woes resulted in subsidies being slashed. Adding insult to
injury, Axiom Capitals Gordon Johnson slashed his price target for the stock
from $75 to $35. That's another 50% decline from here, and barely a tenth of
First Solar's peak share price of $317 in 2008. Sunpower (NASDAQ: SPWRA ) is
next in line among the larger domestic solar players. Its stock has performed
"better" than First Solar in 2011, down about 30% in 2011. However, since
its peak valuation in 2007 over $130, the stock has flopped almost 95% to under
$9 a share as of this writing. Why? Volatile revenue and profit performance
makes for a risky bet and the fact that SPWRA is cruising towards a
third-straight quarterly loss has investors leery. What's more, long-term debt
of more than $500 million and total liabilities pushing $1 billion mean
there's not a lot of room for error considering the company's $900 million
market cap. There are serious hurdles to growth, considering the very expensive
nature of solar panel manufacturing facilities on top of current debt loads.
Those are three specific stories of three well-known U.S. solar companies
proving Solyndra's implosion didn't take place in a vacuum.
ago, President Barack Obama toured the solar energy company and touted its
photovoltaic systems as a perfect example of so-called "cleantech" growth
that would create high-tech, high-paying jobs. Unfortunately and despite a $535
million loan guarantee from the Department of Energy Solyndra filed for
bankruptcy this month, terminating all 1,100 workers. To make matters worse, the
FBI recently raided offices, and now Congressional hearings are revealing very
sloppy spending in the wake of Uncle Sam's endorsement. We can debate the
Solyndra failure as a talking point for the 2012 election another time. What
investors really should be concerned with is the dark clouds gathering over the
entire solar sector. Just take a look at the performance at some of the biggest
names in the solar sector: Evergreen Solar (PINK: ESLRQ ) plummeted to about a
dollar in late 2010 as it tried to restructure its debt. Now it trades for about
a nickel after a 1-for-6 split in January and has been relegated to the pink
sheets. That recent flop would be bad enough, but when you consider that shares
traded for an adjusted price of $12 or so at this time in 2009, the losses look
even uglier. Evergreen filed for bankruptcy in August to try and scrape together
the $485 million it owes creditors and soon will disappear forever. First Solar
(NASDAQ: FSLR ) is the "leader" among pure-play solar stocks in the U.S.,
with a market capitalization of almost $6 billion. FSLR stock is down 48% since
Jan. 1, 2011. The leader by most measures in the industry, First Solar saw its
profits slashed by more than half from $159 million to $61 million – as
Europe's debt woes resulted in subsidies being slashed. Adding insult to
injury, Axiom Capitals Gordon Johnson slashed his price target for the stock
from $75 to $35. That's another 50% decline from here, and barely a tenth of
First Solar's peak share price of $317 in 2008. Sunpower (NASDAQ: SPWRA ) is
next in line among the larger domestic solar players. Its stock has performed
"better" than First Solar in 2011, down about 30% in 2011. However, since
its peak valuation in 2007 over $130, the stock has flopped almost 95% to under
$9 a share as of this writing. Why? Volatile revenue and profit performance
makes for a risky bet and the fact that SPWRA is cruising towards a
third-straight quarterly loss has investors leery. What's more, long-term debt
of more than $500 million and total liabilities pushing $1 billion mean
there's not a lot of room for error considering the company's $900 million
market cap. There are serious hurdles to growth, considering the very expensive
nature of solar panel manufacturing facilities on top of current debt loads.
Those are three specific stories of three well-known U.S. solar companies
proving Solyndra's implosion didn't take place in a vacuum.
Duke Realty Is a Cluttered REIT House
Atlanta-based financial services company Primerica (NYSE: PRI ), announced
Sept. 19 that it was moving its international headquarters in 2013 to a
344,476-square-foot building within Duke Realty 's (NYSE: DRE ) Legacy office
development. When completed, the development will possess close to 1 million
square feet of leasable office space. While it's indeed good news for the
REIT, it's not enough to get me to change my opinion about its stock. Quite
simply, there are better options available. Second-Quarter Results Duke has a
wonderful four-page investor update at its website discussing its business as of
the end of June 2011. Using the four-pager as a template, I'm going to compare
Duke to some of its peers. For instance, its diluted funds from operations in Q2
were 29 cents per share with a 17-cent dividend, which is a 58.6% payout.
Mack-Cali Realty (NYSE: CLI ), a similarly sized office REIT, had diluted FFO of
69 cents per share in the second quarter, paying out 65% or 45 cents per share.
As it stands today, their annual yields are identical. Also closely matched are
its occupancy rates. Duke's is 89.3% and Mack-Cali's is 88.1%. Where
there's a difference is in their capital structures. Mack-Cali has a
debt-to-capital ratio of 43.2% compared to 52.6% for Duke Realty. In addition,
Mack-Cali's fixed charge coverage ratio is 3.07 to 1.82 for Duke Realty. While
neither debt situation is outlandish, I tend to prefer companies with less. At
the end of the day, Mack-Cali is able to cover its debt obligations from
earnings better than Duke Realty is. Operating Margins Highwoods Properties
(NYSE: HIW ) recently acquired 2 million square feet of Class A office space
that will generate $27 million in net operating income in the next 12 months
from its $300 million investment. As a result, it raised its FFO guidance for
the year to between $2.52 and $2.60 per share. At its current price of $30.49,
it's trading at 12 times FFO. Duke's current multiple is 10 times FFO.
However, Highwoods multiple is more than justified by its operating margin. In
the second quarter, its FFO were $45.8 million from $117.1 million in revenue
for a 39% operating margin, while Duke Realty's FFO were $73.7 million from
$363.4 million in revenue for a 20.3% operating margin. Highwoods' operating
margin was 1,870 basis points higher in the latest quarter, and youd find the
difference isn't a one-time occurrence. I wrote about Highwoods in May 2009. I
found it to be an interesting company then, and I still do. Diversification
It's one of the most commonly discussed financial concepts. Duke Realty is
moving away from diversification in its asset strategy, preferring to allocate
more of its future capital to industrial properties and medical offices rather
than Class A office buildings. Currently, the majority of its rental income
splits evenly between general office and industrial space. Its new target is 60%
industrial, 25% general office and 15% medical office. It's not necessarily a
bad move considering the state of the office market but it does make me wonder
if there isn't a better, more diversified alternative. The SPDR Dow Jones
Global Real Estate ETF (NYSE: RWO ) gives you 213 real estate companies from
around the world including all three of the companies mentioned in this article
for a low annual expense ratio of 0.5% and a current dividend yield of 7.7%.
Frankly, unless you're absolutely in love with Duke Realty, it makes far more
sense investing in the ETF, which virtually eliminates your unsystematic or
company risk while at the same time obtaining a good source of income. Bottom
Line With so many people owning homes, I often wonder why people want to invest
in real estate companies in the first place. However, if your heart is set on
real estate, there are better alternatives available. As of this writing, Will
Ashworth did not own a position in any of the stocks named here.
Sept. 19 that it was moving its international headquarters in 2013 to a
344,476-square-foot building within Duke Realty 's (NYSE: DRE ) Legacy office
development. When completed, the development will possess close to 1 million
square feet of leasable office space. While it's indeed good news for the
REIT, it's not enough to get me to change my opinion about its stock. Quite
simply, there are better options available. Second-Quarter Results Duke has a
wonderful four-page investor update at its website discussing its business as of
the end of June 2011. Using the four-pager as a template, I'm going to compare
Duke to some of its peers. For instance, its diluted funds from operations in Q2
were 29 cents per share with a 17-cent dividend, which is a 58.6% payout.
Mack-Cali Realty (NYSE: CLI ), a similarly sized office REIT, had diluted FFO of
69 cents per share in the second quarter, paying out 65% or 45 cents per share.
As it stands today, their annual yields are identical. Also closely matched are
its occupancy rates. Duke's is 89.3% and Mack-Cali's is 88.1%. Where
there's a difference is in their capital structures. Mack-Cali has a
debt-to-capital ratio of 43.2% compared to 52.6% for Duke Realty. In addition,
Mack-Cali's fixed charge coverage ratio is 3.07 to 1.82 for Duke Realty. While
neither debt situation is outlandish, I tend to prefer companies with less. At
the end of the day, Mack-Cali is able to cover its debt obligations from
earnings better than Duke Realty is. Operating Margins Highwoods Properties
(NYSE: HIW ) recently acquired 2 million square feet of Class A office space
that will generate $27 million in net operating income in the next 12 months
from its $300 million investment. As a result, it raised its FFO guidance for
the year to between $2.52 and $2.60 per share. At its current price of $30.49,
it's trading at 12 times FFO. Duke's current multiple is 10 times FFO.
However, Highwoods multiple is more than justified by its operating margin. In
the second quarter, its FFO were $45.8 million from $117.1 million in revenue
for a 39% operating margin, while Duke Realty's FFO were $73.7 million from
$363.4 million in revenue for a 20.3% operating margin. Highwoods' operating
margin was 1,870 basis points higher in the latest quarter, and youd find the
difference isn't a one-time occurrence. I wrote about Highwoods in May 2009. I
found it to be an interesting company then, and I still do. Diversification
It's one of the most commonly discussed financial concepts. Duke Realty is
moving away from diversification in its asset strategy, preferring to allocate
more of its future capital to industrial properties and medical offices rather
than Class A office buildings. Currently, the majority of its rental income
splits evenly between general office and industrial space. Its new target is 60%
industrial, 25% general office and 15% medical office. It's not necessarily a
bad move considering the state of the office market but it does make me wonder
if there isn't a better, more diversified alternative. The SPDR Dow Jones
Global Real Estate ETF (NYSE: RWO ) gives you 213 real estate companies from
around the world including all three of the companies mentioned in this article
for a low annual expense ratio of 0.5% and a current dividend yield of 7.7%.
Frankly, unless you're absolutely in love with Duke Realty, it makes far more
sense investing in the ETF, which virtually eliminates your unsystematic or
company risk while at the same time obtaining a good source of income. Bottom
Line With so many people owning homes, I often wonder why people want to invest
in real estate companies in the first place. However, if your heart is set on
real estate, there are better alternatives available. As of this writing, Will
Ashworth did not own a position in any of the stocks named here.
Be Calm, Hold Your Silver and Gold Positions
Gold Price Close Today : 1,637.70 Gold Price Close 16-Sep : 1,812.10 Change :
-174.40 or -9.6% Silver Price Close Today : 3006 Silver Price Close 16-Sep :
4078.1 Change : -1072.10 or -26.3% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.48 Gold Silver
Ratio 16-Sep : 44.43 Change : 10.05 or 22.6% Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01836 Silver
Gold Ratio 16-Sep : 0.02250 Change : -0.00415 or -18.4% Dow in Gold Dollars : $
135.96 Dow in Gold Dollars 16-Sep : $ 131.29 Change : $ 4.67 or 3.6% Dow in Gold
Ounces : 6.577 Dow in Gold Ounces 16-Sep : 6.351 Change : 0.23 or 3.6% Dow in
Silver Ounces : 358.33 Dow in Silver Ounces 16-Sep : 282.22 Change : 76.12 or
27.0% Dow Industrial : 10,771.48 Dow Industrial 16-Sep : 11,509.09 Change :
-737.61 or -6.4% S&P 500 : 1,136.00 S&P 500 16-Sep : 1,216.01 Change : -80.01 or
-6.6% US Dollar Index : 78.356 US Dollar Index 16-Sep : 76.623 Change : 1.73 or
2.3% Platinum Price Close Today : 1,610.40 Platinum Price Close 16-Sep :
1,805.90 Change : -195.50 or -10.8% Palladium Price Close Today : 641.10
Palladium Price Close 16-Sep : 732.90 Change : -91.80 or -12.5% When I saw
today's prices, I rushed back to send y'all a commentary. Since I claim to be
nothing more than a natural born fool from Tennessee, I might not have anything
to say worth hearing. Might just add more fog to an already foggy situation, but
here goes. No way to tell what final straw will break a market's back. Markets
are human phenomena, and who knows what causes crowds to panic? Stocks, silver,
and gold were all set to drop and the US dollar to rise. Something pushed them
over the edge. Bloomberg News, which always tells the truth (when it's
convenient), said today US stocks fell for their biggest weekly loss since 2008.
In four days stocks lost $1.1 trillion in value. Wednesday and Thursday alone
the Dow lost 5.9%. Cause they assigned to this effect was the Fed's warning
Wednesday that risks to the economy have increased. Right, and fire is hot, too.
Clearly, the public perceives that nobody in authority on the North American or
European continents has a clue what to do. Today the Dow dead-cat-bounced to
10,771.48, up 37.65 points or 0.35%, hardly amounting to a rounding error.
S&P500 rose 0.61% or 6.87 to 1,136. Today's 10,638 low took the Dow back to its
August low, setting it up for a fall THRU that low on Monday. Point and Figure
chart gives a target of 9,600 [sic]. Big break. Follow thru Monday will confirm
whether it will fall much further, but I don't know how you could draw any other
conclusion. Stocks -- as much fun as pouring vinegar on a broken tooth. Thursday
the US DOLLAR INDEX broke through 78 resistance and rose 118.5 basis points to
78.489. Today it rose pennies to 78.50, but the trend is confirmed. Dollar index
has now (1) broken through its upper trading channel line, (2) traded through
its 200 day moving average, now 76.10), and (3) broken above 78, a height not
seen since last February. Man'd be a fool to stand in the way of this. Dollar is
rallying, and may reach 81.50 OR EVEN MUCH HIGHER. That throws a headwind into
the paths of silver and gold. This will keep up until falling stocks and screams
of deflation scare Ben the Bernancubus so badly that he pumps out more dollars.
What y'all must not do is lose your head while everybody else is panicking.
Don't become confused, mistaking short term moves for long term changes. NOTHING
HAS CHANGED. SYSTEM IS UNALTERED. The Keynesian fools (takes a fool to know one)
in government and central banking will keep on applying the same failed "cures"
and keep on avoiding any real medicine. Thus after a correction, silver and gold
will come roaring back. Euro bounced a little today, up 0.23% to close at 1.3491
on its way to 1.2000 [sic]. Watch and see if it doesn't. If the yen can remain
above 130c (Y76.9 = $1) it will prove a breakout and move even higher. Danger
with looking at past performance is that your mind inevitably forces that
pattern onto today's movements, so that you expect things to follow the past
exactly. Doesn't work that way: it only gives us a general comparison. With that
waning, let's look at how GOLD and SILVER PRICES acted back in 2008. Remember
that the mortgage bubble popped then, precipitating a banking crisis in the US,
like that today in European banks with sovereign debt. GOLD topped 18 March 2008
at $1,003.20, then ** The GOLD PRICE fell to a correction low 1 May at $848.90
** Climbed to a correction high of $977.70 on 15 July, ** broke down at about
$900 on 4 August, and ** waterfalled to $786 (down 14.5%) by 18 August ** went
lower, then rose to $900 on 22 September, and ** fell to a final bottom at
$704.90 on 13 November, down 30% from the March peak. ** from the August break
to the November low 97 days passed. The SILVER PRICE topped 5 March 2008 at
2068.50c, then **fell to a 1 May correction low at 1612c ** rose to 14 July at
1917.5c, then dropped gently and ** broke on 6 August at 1650c into a waterfall
** plunging to 1049c (down 36.4% in that break) on 11 Sept, ** dropped more,
then rose to 1345.8c on 26 September, and ** fell to double bottoms 28 Oct and
13 Nov. at 880c, down 57.5% from the March peak. ** From the August break to the
November low, 98 days elapsed. SILVER and GOLD will not repeat these exact
numbers, but should follow that same general pattern. Tops in 2011 came in May,
and events have not played out exactly the same. This time gold's first
correction recovery high (top of B wave) ran much higher than the previous
$1,577 peak, but once again silver's recovery has not been nearly as vigorous as
gold's. Okay, smart guy, if all this is so, why didn't you tell us before?
Because I couldn't be sure metals were following the same pattern until they
broke this week. More than that, scared money was running into gold, driving it
up all summer. Big question to deal with now is whether this is a relatively
minor correction, or whether it will correct the entire move from the 2008 lows
to the 2011 highs. Not so fast, Jack! Gold's $1,637.70 closing price today was
only about 15% lower than its peak -- not a major correction yet. Today's silver
close, 3006c, is 38.1% lower than its 4858 peak last day of April. Not huge for
silver. Yet this waterfall makes me expect lower prices still. Based on 2008's
performance, a bottom can be expected sometime in December, if silver and gold
are following that 2008 track. Most of all, 2008 offered us a gigantic
opportunity to swap gold for for silver when the ratio reached 83.5. Applying
that 2008 correction of the gold/silver ratio from 46.677 to 83.5 or 179% of the
low, the ratio this time around would reach 57.24. Whoa! Today's ratio was
54.481, taking it higher faster than expected. That reminds me that this
correction ought not to take as long as 2008's because the market is in a later,
more violent and speedier stage of development. So we will want to trade gold
for silver very shortly. Watch it every day. That break through 45 in the ratio
over the last 2 days will send it rocketing upward. Today's market in gold was
raw, bloody carnage. Comex gold dropped $101.70 (5.8%) to $1,637.70, on top of
losing $66.40 yesterday, a total of 9.5% in two days. Low today came at
$1,629.50. Targets are the 150 day moving average, which has contained every
decline in the last year. It's now at $1,573. Another target is the 200 dma at
$1,522.65. The 150 dma nests with lateral support about $1,575. If gold falls
through $1,478, it could drop to $1,432.50, down about 25% from its $1,920 high.
The SILVER PRICE lost 674c today or 17.7%. I don't recall seeing any drop that
large in since 1980. That was added to a 9.7% loss yesterday, or 27.4% in the
past two days. Silver has broken to a new lower low in the correction from its
end-April high. May intraday low was 3230c. Low today was 2999c, and Comex close
came at 3006c. What about targets? Silver has dropped through its 300 day moving
average (now 3143c), which hasn't happened since 2008. Lateral support stands at
2630c, the February 2011 low, then at a congestion area about 1950c - 2000c. A
57.5% correction repeating 2008's performance would take silver to 2064.7c. The
area from 3127c to 2630c offers considerable support. Point and Figure target is
1600c. Again I warn y'all not to lose your heads. Be calm, hold your silver and
gold positions, alertly watch for the opportunity to swap gold for silver and to
buy more gold and silver at panic prices. Lift your eyes up to the horizon, look
at the long term, not at the bumpy road right in front of your hood, otherwise
you'll run off the road into an oak tree. It's been a hard week. Y'all go home,
kiss your wife or husband and your children, and think about this: "Behold, it
is good and comely for one to eat and to drink and to enjoy the good of all his
labor that he takes under the sun all the days of his life, which God giveth
him: for it is his portion. "Live joyfully with the wife whom thou lovest all
the days of thy vanity . . . For that is thy portion in this life, and in thy
labour which thou takest under the sun." Y'all enjoy your weekend! Argentum et
aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders,
The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com © 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be
republished in any form, including electronically, without our express
permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a
very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary
trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1
gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under
2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary
trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write
"Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining
stocks, too?" No, I don't. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT
use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that
or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term
investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing
service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange
Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or
another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me
paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading
futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not
for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or
with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your
own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.
-174.40 or -9.6% Silver Price Close Today : 3006 Silver Price Close 16-Sep :
4078.1 Change : -1072.10 or -26.3% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.48 Gold Silver
Ratio 16-Sep : 44.43 Change : 10.05 or 22.6% Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01836 Silver
Gold Ratio 16-Sep : 0.02250 Change : -0.00415 or -18.4% Dow in Gold Dollars : $
135.96 Dow in Gold Dollars 16-Sep : $ 131.29 Change : $ 4.67 or 3.6% Dow in Gold
Ounces : 6.577 Dow in Gold Ounces 16-Sep : 6.351 Change : 0.23 or 3.6% Dow in
Silver Ounces : 358.33 Dow in Silver Ounces 16-Sep : 282.22 Change : 76.12 or
27.0% Dow Industrial : 10,771.48 Dow Industrial 16-Sep : 11,509.09 Change :
-737.61 or -6.4% S&P 500 : 1,136.00 S&P 500 16-Sep : 1,216.01 Change : -80.01 or
-6.6% US Dollar Index : 78.356 US Dollar Index 16-Sep : 76.623 Change : 1.73 or
2.3% Platinum Price Close Today : 1,610.40 Platinum Price Close 16-Sep :
1,805.90 Change : -195.50 or -10.8% Palladium Price Close Today : 641.10
Palladium Price Close 16-Sep : 732.90 Change : -91.80 or -12.5% When I saw
today's prices, I rushed back to send y'all a commentary. Since I claim to be
nothing more than a natural born fool from Tennessee, I might not have anything
to say worth hearing. Might just add more fog to an already foggy situation, but
here goes. No way to tell what final straw will break a market's back. Markets
are human phenomena, and who knows what causes crowds to panic? Stocks, silver,
and gold were all set to drop and the US dollar to rise. Something pushed them
over the edge. Bloomberg News, which always tells the truth (when it's
convenient), said today US stocks fell for their biggest weekly loss since 2008.
In four days stocks lost $1.1 trillion in value. Wednesday and Thursday alone
the Dow lost 5.9%. Cause they assigned to this effect was the Fed's warning
Wednesday that risks to the economy have increased. Right, and fire is hot, too.
Clearly, the public perceives that nobody in authority on the North American or
European continents has a clue what to do. Today the Dow dead-cat-bounced to
10,771.48, up 37.65 points or 0.35%, hardly amounting to a rounding error.
S&P500 rose 0.61% or 6.87 to 1,136. Today's 10,638 low took the Dow back to its
August low, setting it up for a fall THRU that low on Monday. Point and Figure
chart gives a target of 9,600 [sic]. Big break. Follow thru Monday will confirm
whether it will fall much further, but I don't know how you could draw any other
conclusion. Stocks -- as much fun as pouring vinegar on a broken tooth. Thursday
the US DOLLAR INDEX broke through 78 resistance and rose 118.5 basis points to
78.489. Today it rose pennies to 78.50, but the trend is confirmed. Dollar index
has now (1) broken through its upper trading channel line, (2) traded through
its 200 day moving average, now 76.10), and (3) broken above 78, a height not
seen since last February. Man'd be a fool to stand in the way of this. Dollar is
rallying, and may reach 81.50 OR EVEN MUCH HIGHER. That throws a headwind into
the paths of silver and gold. This will keep up until falling stocks and screams
of deflation scare Ben the Bernancubus so badly that he pumps out more dollars.
What y'all must not do is lose your head while everybody else is panicking.
Don't become confused, mistaking short term moves for long term changes. NOTHING
HAS CHANGED. SYSTEM IS UNALTERED. The Keynesian fools (takes a fool to know one)
in government and central banking will keep on applying the same failed "cures"
and keep on avoiding any real medicine. Thus after a correction, silver and gold
will come roaring back. Euro bounced a little today, up 0.23% to close at 1.3491
on its way to 1.2000 [sic]. Watch and see if it doesn't. If the yen can remain
above 130c (Y76.9 = $1) it will prove a breakout and move even higher. Danger
with looking at past performance is that your mind inevitably forces that
pattern onto today's movements, so that you expect things to follow the past
exactly. Doesn't work that way: it only gives us a general comparison. With that
waning, let's look at how GOLD and SILVER PRICES acted back in 2008. Remember
that the mortgage bubble popped then, precipitating a banking crisis in the US,
like that today in European banks with sovereign debt. GOLD topped 18 March 2008
at $1,003.20, then ** The GOLD PRICE fell to a correction low 1 May at $848.90
** Climbed to a correction high of $977.70 on 15 July, ** broke down at about
$900 on 4 August, and ** waterfalled to $786 (down 14.5%) by 18 August ** went
lower, then rose to $900 on 22 September, and ** fell to a final bottom at
$704.90 on 13 November, down 30% from the March peak. ** from the August break
to the November low 97 days passed. The SILVER PRICE topped 5 March 2008 at
2068.50c, then **fell to a 1 May correction low at 1612c ** rose to 14 July at
1917.5c, then dropped gently and ** broke on 6 August at 1650c into a waterfall
** plunging to 1049c (down 36.4% in that break) on 11 Sept, ** dropped more,
then rose to 1345.8c on 26 September, and ** fell to double bottoms 28 Oct and
13 Nov. at 880c, down 57.5% from the March peak. ** From the August break to the
November low, 98 days elapsed. SILVER and GOLD will not repeat these exact
numbers, but should follow that same general pattern. Tops in 2011 came in May,
and events have not played out exactly the same. This time gold's first
correction recovery high (top of B wave) ran much higher than the previous
$1,577 peak, but once again silver's recovery has not been nearly as vigorous as
gold's. Okay, smart guy, if all this is so, why didn't you tell us before?
Because I couldn't be sure metals were following the same pattern until they
broke this week. More than that, scared money was running into gold, driving it
up all summer. Big question to deal with now is whether this is a relatively
minor correction, or whether it will correct the entire move from the 2008 lows
to the 2011 highs. Not so fast, Jack! Gold's $1,637.70 closing price today was
only about 15% lower than its peak -- not a major correction yet. Today's silver
close, 3006c, is 38.1% lower than its 4858 peak last day of April. Not huge for
silver. Yet this waterfall makes me expect lower prices still. Based on 2008's
performance, a bottom can be expected sometime in December, if silver and gold
are following that 2008 track. Most of all, 2008 offered us a gigantic
opportunity to swap gold for for silver when the ratio reached 83.5. Applying
that 2008 correction of the gold/silver ratio from 46.677 to 83.5 or 179% of the
low, the ratio this time around would reach 57.24. Whoa! Today's ratio was
54.481, taking it higher faster than expected. That reminds me that this
correction ought not to take as long as 2008's because the market is in a later,
more violent and speedier stage of development. So we will want to trade gold
for silver very shortly. Watch it every day. That break through 45 in the ratio
over the last 2 days will send it rocketing upward. Today's market in gold was
raw, bloody carnage. Comex gold dropped $101.70 (5.8%) to $1,637.70, on top of
losing $66.40 yesterday, a total of 9.5% in two days. Low today came at
$1,629.50. Targets are the 150 day moving average, which has contained every
decline in the last year. It's now at $1,573. Another target is the 200 dma at
$1,522.65. The 150 dma nests with lateral support about $1,575. If gold falls
through $1,478, it could drop to $1,432.50, down about 25% from its $1,920 high.
The SILVER PRICE lost 674c today or 17.7%. I don't recall seeing any drop that
large in since 1980. That was added to a 9.7% loss yesterday, or 27.4% in the
past two days. Silver has broken to a new lower low in the correction from its
end-April high. May intraday low was 3230c. Low today was 2999c, and Comex close
came at 3006c. What about targets? Silver has dropped through its 300 day moving
average (now 3143c), which hasn't happened since 2008. Lateral support stands at
2630c, the February 2011 low, then at a congestion area about 1950c - 2000c. A
57.5% correction repeating 2008's performance would take silver to 2064.7c. The
area from 3127c to 2630c offers considerable support. Point and Figure target is
1600c. Again I warn y'all not to lose your heads. Be calm, hold your silver and
gold positions, alertly watch for the opportunity to swap gold for silver and to
buy more gold and silver at panic prices. Lift your eyes up to the horizon, look
at the long term, not at the bumpy road right in front of your hood, otherwise
you'll run off the road into an oak tree. It's been a hard week. Y'all go home,
kiss your wife or husband and your children, and think about this: "Behold, it
is good and comely for one to eat and to drink and to enjoy the good of all his
labor that he takes under the sun all the days of his life, which God giveth
him: for it is his portion. "Live joyfully with the wife whom thou lovest all
the days of thy vanity . . . For that is thy portion in this life, and in thy
labour which thou takest under the sun." Y'all enjoy your weekend! Argentum et
aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders,
The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com © 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be
republished in any form, including electronically, without our express
permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a
very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary
trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1
gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under
2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary
trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write
"Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining
stocks, too?" No, I don't. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT
use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that
or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term
investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing
service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange
Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or
another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me
paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading
futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not
for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or
with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your
own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.
8 Financial Stocks Rated ‘Strong Sell’
Financial stocks have been brutalized in 2011. Some of the biggest losers on
Wall Street in 2011 include Bank of America (NYSE: BAC ) and Citigroup (NYSE: C
) and thanks to some moron at UBS AG (NYSE: UBS ) losing a cool $2 billion on
risky trading , the sector isn't exactly instilling confidence in investors
these days. I watch more than 5,000 publicly traded companies with my Portfolio
Grader tool, ranking companies by a number of fundamental and quantitative
measures. And this week, I'm tracking eight big bank stocks that are not
instilling confidence in investors. Here they are, in alphabetical order. Each
one of these stocks gets an "F" according to my research, meaning it is a
strong sell. Bank of America is a financial stock that serves individual
consumers, small and middle market businesses, corporations and governments.
Year to date, BAC stock has dropped 52%, compared to a drop of just 4% for the
Dow Jones. Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS ) is a global financial service provider
involved with retail banking, credit cards, corporate and investment banking and
wealth management. Despite having a $28 billion market cap, BCS stock has
slipped 44% since this January. Citigroup provides consumers, corporations,
governments and institutions across the globe with a range of financial products
and services. A year-to-date drop of 46% for C stock has left shareholders
shaking their heads throughout 2011. Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS ) is known for
providing advisory services, solutions and products to companies, institutional
clients and private clients globally. CS stock's yearly performance has been a
sore spot for investors, having dropped more than 40%. Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB )
is a global investment bank that provides investment, financial and related
products and services to its varied group of clients. A year-to-date drop of
nearly 40% for DB has potential investors running. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS ) is
known as a bank holding and financial holding company that provides numerous
financial services to its clients. GS might be known internationally, but a
year-to-date drop of 42% has dragged this bank stock's name through the mud.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS ) is another global financial services firm making this
list. MS has been a big loser in 2011, dropping more than 49% in less than 10
months. UBS AG is the financial services company made infamous for having lost
$2 billion recently for less-than-stellar trading practices. Additionally, a
year-to-date performance of 33% for UBS has shareholders jumping ship. Get more
analysis of these picks and other publicly traded stocks with Louis
Navellier's Portfolio Grader tool, a 100% free stock-rating tool that measures
both quantitative buying pressure and eight fundamental factors.
Wall Street in 2011 include Bank of America (NYSE: BAC ) and Citigroup (NYSE: C
) and thanks to some moron at UBS AG (NYSE: UBS ) losing a cool $2 billion on
risky trading , the sector isn't exactly instilling confidence in investors
these days. I watch more than 5,000 publicly traded companies with my Portfolio
Grader tool, ranking companies by a number of fundamental and quantitative
measures. And this week, I'm tracking eight big bank stocks that are not
instilling confidence in investors. Here they are, in alphabetical order. Each
one of these stocks gets an "F" according to my research, meaning it is a
strong sell. Bank of America is a financial stock that serves individual
consumers, small and middle market businesses, corporations and governments.
Year to date, BAC stock has dropped 52%, compared to a drop of just 4% for the
Dow Jones. Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS ) is a global financial service provider
involved with retail banking, credit cards, corporate and investment banking and
wealth management. Despite having a $28 billion market cap, BCS stock has
slipped 44% since this January. Citigroup provides consumers, corporations,
governments and institutions across the globe with a range of financial products
and services. A year-to-date drop of 46% for C stock has left shareholders
shaking their heads throughout 2011. Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS ) is known for
providing advisory services, solutions and products to companies, institutional
clients and private clients globally. CS stock's yearly performance has been a
sore spot for investors, having dropped more than 40%. Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB )
is a global investment bank that provides investment, financial and related
products and services to its varied group of clients. A year-to-date drop of
nearly 40% for DB has potential investors running. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS ) is
known as a bank holding and financial holding company that provides numerous
financial services to its clients. GS might be known internationally, but a
year-to-date drop of 42% has dragged this bank stock's name through the mud.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS ) is another global financial services firm making this
list. MS has been a big loser in 2011, dropping more than 49% in less than 10
months. UBS AG is the financial services company made infamous for having lost
$2 billion recently for less-than-stellar trading practices. Additionally, a
year-to-date performance of 33% for UBS has shareholders jumping ship. Get more
analysis of these picks and other publicly traded stocks with Louis
Navellier's Portfolio Grader tool, a 100% free stock-rating tool that measures
both quantitative buying pressure and eight fundamental factors.
Gold Price Lost $174.60 or -10.7% and the Silver Price Lost $10.73 or -35.7% This Week
Gold Price Close Today : 1,637.50 Gold Price Close 16-Sep : 1,812.10 Change :
-174.60 or -10.7% Silver Price Close Today : 30.05 Silver Price Close 16-Sep :
40.78 Change : -10.73 or -35.7% Platinum Price Close Today : 1,613.20 Platinum
Price Close 16-Sep : 1,813.90 Change : -200.70 or -12.4% Palladium Price Close
Today : 640.75 Palladium Price Close 16-Sep : 731.20 Change : -90.45 or -14.1%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.49 Gold Silver Ratio 16-Sep : 44.44 Change : 10.06
or 1.23% Dow Industrial : 10,733.83 Dow Industrial 16-Sep: 11,509.09 Change :
-775.26 or -7.2% US Dollar Index : 78.38 US Dollar Index 16-Sep : 76.24 Change :
2.14 or 2.7% Franklin Sanders will not be writing commentary today, he will
return on Monday the 26th of September.
-174.60 or -10.7% Silver Price Close Today : 30.05 Silver Price Close 16-Sep :
40.78 Change : -10.73 or -35.7% Platinum Price Close Today : 1,613.20 Platinum
Price Close 16-Sep : 1,813.90 Change : -200.70 or -12.4% Palladium Price Close
Today : 640.75 Palladium Price Close 16-Sep : 731.20 Change : -90.45 or -14.1%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.49 Gold Silver Ratio 16-Sep : 44.44 Change : 10.06
or 1.23% Dow Industrial : 10,733.83 Dow Industrial 16-Sep: 11,509.09 Change :
-775.26 or -7.2% US Dollar Index : 78.38 US Dollar Index 16-Sep : 76.24 Change :
2.14 or 2.7% Franklin Sanders will not be writing commentary today, he will
return on Monday the 26th of September.
Should Apple Pull a Netflix and Kill the iPod?
Back in 2006, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) was riding high on the success of its iPod.
The gadget accounted for more than 50% of Apple's first-quarter revenue that
year as a digital music revolution was in full swing. Now the iconic iPod is an
afterthought, bringing in a mere 8% of Apple revenue and falling fast as other
gadgets take over the digital jukebox role on top of many other functions. So
could Apple pull a page out of the Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX ) handbook and
voluntarily kill off a dying segment of its business? Would it make sense for
Apple to refocus, rather than just running the iPod into the ground? Despite
several innovations like the Nano touchscreen or the cheap Shuffle model, the
iPod has been in steady decline in importance for Apple. Granted, the importance
is in part because revenue at Apple has soared thanks to breakneck growth and
simply standing pat would mean a smaller share of the pie as the pie got bigger.
But less than 10% of total revenue and falling is caused by more than just
growth in other segments. As the world gears up for the iPhone 5 launch, stock
market analysts are quick to point out the importance the smartphone has in
regards to the bottom line of Apple. In Q2, the iPhone racked up more than $12
billion in revenue despite being an "old" model launched in June 2010. So
one has to wonder if Apple would be better off bailing out of the iPod biz and
focusing its marketing, development and production on its vaunted iPhone
instead. According to rumors from Apple's supply chain , the company might
already be doing that. Apple is not doing much of anything to refresh its iPod
Touch. Not much love for a groundbreaking piece of consumer tech that, like
Kleenex and Xerox, became a brand that is synonymous with a whole category of
products. This hints Apple might trim its four varieties of iPod soon the
stripped-down Shuffle for $49, the small touchscreen Nano for $149, and the iPod
Touch and Classic for more than $200. It makes sense when you think about it at
those price points. Why would anyone pay a more than a hundred dollars or in
the case of the mammoth 160 GB model, $250 for an MP3 player when an iPhone or
iPad can do that and so much more? There may be a niche hardcore entertainment
junkie who wants tens of thousands of songs or 75 feature-length movies on an
iPod. But with the launch of Apple's iCloud that will allow access to media on
any device, that niche has other ways to connect with Apple. Some think the iPod
Classic and its trademark clickwheel will be eliminated as soon as the big Apple
event in October. NFLX stock was slammed on its loss of 1 million customers
after the recent dual-pricing move, then Netflix CEO Reed Hastings took some
heat for making a move away from DVD sales. Apple could face similar backlash
from angry iPod fans. But the difference is that Apple is not killing a wildly
popular device or service and making customers jump through new hoops. It simply
would be phasing out a fading product that is increasingly becoming irrelevant
in part because of Apple's other successful products. Jeff Reeves is editor of
InvestorPlace.com. As of this writing, he did not own a position in any of the
stocks named here. Write him at editor@investorplace.com , follow him on Twitter
via @JeffReevesIP and become a fan of InvestorPlace on Facebook .
The gadget accounted for more than 50% of Apple's first-quarter revenue that
year as a digital music revolution was in full swing. Now the iconic iPod is an
afterthought, bringing in a mere 8% of Apple revenue and falling fast as other
gadgets take over the digital jukebox role on top of many other functions. So
could Apple pull a page out of the Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX ) handbook and
voluntarily kill off a dying segment of its business? Would it make sense for
Apple to refocus, rather than just running the iPod into the ground? Despite
several innovations like the Nano touchscreen or the cheap Shuffle model, the
iPod has been in steady decline in importance for Apple. Granted, the importance
is in part because revenue at Apple has soared thanks to breakneck growth and
simply standing pat would mean a smaller share of the pie as the pie got bigger.
But less than 10% of total revenue and falling is caused by more than just
growth in other segments. As the world gears up for the iPhone 5 launch, stock
market analysts are quick to point out the importance the smartphone has in
regards to the bottom line of Apple. In Q2, the iPhone racked up more than $12
billion in revenue despite being an "old" model launched in June 2010. So
one has to wonder if Apple would be better off bailing out of the iPod biz and
focusing its marketing, development and production on its vaunted iPhone
instead. According to rumors from Apple's supply chain , the company might
already be doing that. Apple is not doing much of anything to refresh its iPod
Touch. Not much love for a groundbreaking piece of consumer tech that, like
Kleenex and Xerox, became a brand that is synonymous with a whole category of
products. This hints Apple might trim its four varieties of iPod soon the
stripped-down Shuffle for $49, the small touchscreen Nano for $149, and the iPod
Touch and Classic for more than $200. It makes sense when you think about it at
those price points. Why would anyone pay a more than a hundred dollars or in
the case of the mammoth 160 GB model, $250 for an MP3 player when an iPhone or
iPad can do that and so much more? There may be a niche hardcore entertainment
junkie who wants tens of thousands of songs or 75 feature-length movies on an
iPod. But with the launch of Apple's iCloud that will allow access to media on
any device, that niche has other ways to connect with Apple. Some think the iPod
Classic and its trademark clickwheel will be eliminated as soon as the big Apple
event in October. NFLX stock was slammed on its loss of 1 million customers
after the recent dual-pricing move, then Netflix CEO Reed Hastings took some
heat for making a move away from DVD sales. Apple could face similar backlash
from angry iPod fans. But the difference is that Apple is not killing a wildly
popular device or service and making customers jump through new hoops. It simply
would be phasing out a fading product that is increasingly becoming irrelevant
in part because of Apple's other successful products. Jeff Reeves is editor of
InvestorPlace.com. As of this writing, he did not own a position in any of the
stocks named here. Write him at editor@investorplace.com , follow him on Twitter
via @JeffReevesIP and become a fan of InvestorPlace on Facebook .
Red Hat Shares — 3 Pros, 3 Cons
In yesterday's ugly market, only a few stocks were able to eke out gains. One
of the standouts: Red Hat (NYSE: RHT ). Its price was up 3% to $41.49. Then
again, the software company posted strong quarterly results. Revenues increased
by 27% to $281.3 million, and earnings spiked 67% to 20 cents per share. Red Hat
also enjoyed a 20% increase in operating cash flows to $77 million. Such a
performance is typical for Red Hat. Keep in mind that the company's shares
have seen an average annual return of 29.50% during the past three years. So
what about the future? Can Red Hat continues its impressive growth ramp? To see,
here's a look at the pros and cons: Pros Powerful business model. Red Hat
focuses primarily on open-source software. Essentially, this is technology that
is free and maintained by a developer community. So how does Red Hat make money?
For the most part, it sells services, training and updates. These are critical
for customers who want to maximize the usefulness of open-source software.
Mega-trends. The software industry is undergoing tremendous change. Some of the
new developments include virtualization and cloud computing. And yes, Red Hat
has various services that help customers with these categories. Strong customer
base. In the latest quarter, Red Hat's top 30 deals were all over $1 million.
The company also made three transactions over $5 million. What's more, Red Hat
was able to get a 100% close rate on the top 25 deals up for renewal. In other
words, the company has fairly strong customer loyalty. Cons Competition. Through
acquisitions, traditional software operators have entered the open-source
market. For example, Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL ) owns the highly popular MySQL
database. IBM (NYSE: IBM ) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT ) also have their own
offerings. In the virtualization market, Red Hat must compete against companies
like VMware (NYSE: VMW ). Platform as a service (PaaS). This allows companies to
operate and customize their information technology systems via the Internet. For
this, they pay an ongoing subscription fee. While still early, the PaaS approach
is getting lots of traction because of its flexibility and low cost. In fact,
one of the leaders in the segment is Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM ). Over the next
few years, PaaS systems could represent a serious threat for Red Hat. Valuation.
Red Hat's stock is far from cheap. It currently trades at a price-to-earnings
ratio of 69. Verdict So might the tough macroeconomic environment hurt Red Hat?
Perhaps so. Yet the company has the advantage that its software is free.
Consider that some of the hardest-hit sectors such as financial services and
the government have shown continued demand for Red Hat's services. For
example, Red Hat has raised its guidance for the fiscal year 2012. Revenues are
forecast at $1.12 billion to $1.13 billion, up from $1.07 billion to 1.085
billion. As for the non-GAAP earnings, they are expected to range from $1.03 to
$1.05 per share, which compares to the prior guidance of 98 cents to $1. And
yes, the main drivers include secular changes in technology, as well as a bigger
emphasis on lower-cost technology offerings all of which Red Hat provides.
Thus, in light of such things, the pros outweigh the cons for the company's
stock. Tom Taulli is the author of "All About Short Selling" and "All
About Commodities." You can also find him at Twitter account @ttaulli. He does
not own a position in any of the stocks named here.
of the standouts: Red Hat (NYSE: RHT ). Its price was up 3% to $41.49. Then
again, the software company posted strong quarterly results. Revenues increased
by 27% to $281.3 million, and earnings spiked 67% to 20 cents per share. Red Hat
also enjoyed a 20% increase in operating cash flows to $77 million. Such a
performance is typical for Red Hat. Keep in mind that the company's shares
have seen an average annual return of 29.50% during the past three years. So
what about the future? Can Red Hat continues its impressive growth ramp? To see,
here's a look at the pros and cons: Pros Powerful business model. Red Hat
focuses primarily on open-source software. Essentially, this is technology that
is free and maintained by a developer community. So how does Red Hat make money?
For the most part, it sells services, training and updates. These are critical
for customers who want to maximize the usefulness of open-source software.
Mega-trends. The software industry is undergoing tremendous change. Some of the
new developments include virtualization and cloud computing. And yes, Red Hat
has various services that help customers with these categories. Strong customer
base. In the latest quarter, Red Hat's top 30 deals were all over $1 million.
The company also made three transactions over $5 million. What's more, Red Hat
was able to get a 100% close rate on the top 25 deals up for renewal. In other
words, the company has fairly strong customer loyalty. Cons Competition. Through
acquisitions, traditional software operators have entered the open-source
market. For example, Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL ) owns the highly popular MySQL
database. IBM (NYSE: IBM ) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT ) also have their own
offerings. In the virtualization market, Red Hat must compete against companies
like VMware (NYSE: VMW ). Platform as a service (PaaS). This allows companies to
operate and customize their information technology systems via the Internet. For
this, they pay an ongoing subscription fee. While still early, the PaaS approach
is getting lots of traction because of its flexibility and low cost. In fact,
one of the leaders in the segment is Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM ). Over the next
few years, PaaS systems could represent a serious threat for Red Hat. Valuation.
Red Hat's stock is far from cheap. It currently trades at a price-to-earnings
ratio of 69. Verdict So might the tough macroeconomic environment hurt Red Hat?
Perhaps so. Yet the company has the advantage that its software is free.
Consider that some of the hardest-hit sectors such as financial services and
the government have shown continued demand for Red Hat's services. For
example, Red Hat has raised its guidance for the fiscal year 2012. Revenues are
forecast at $1.12 billion to $1.13 billion, up from $1.07 billion to 1.085
billion. As for the non-GAAP earnings, they are expected to range from $1.03 to
$1.05 per share, which compares to the prior guidance of 98 cents to $1. And
yes, the main drivers include secular changes in technology, as well as a bigger
emphasis on lower-cost technology offerings all of which Red Hat provides.
Thus, in light of such things, the pros outweigh the cons for the company's
stock. Tom Taulli is the author of "All About Short Selling" and "All
About Commodities." You can also find him at Twitter account @ttaulli. He does
not own a position in any of the stocks named here.
Facebook Music: Too Loud for Pandora
Since coming public in mid-June, the shares of Pandora (NYSE: P ) have been a
rocky ride for investors. After reaching a high of $26, they now are trading at
about $10.50. So what's the problem? Actually, it's not the service. For the
most part, Pandora has a great offering (Disclosure: I love it as well). But
when it comes to investing, good service is not enough. It's also important to
look at the barriers to entry. Unfortunately, in the case of the online music
industry, there are many worthy competitors trying to get a piece of the market.
The latest entrant came just this week: Facebook. The company is partnering with
other music operators like Spotify, MOG, iHeartRadio, Slacker and Rdio. Their
services will be integrated on the Facebook platform and allow users to share
playlists and music titles. They also will appear on a user's Timeline
(Facebooks new profile page). This should provide an overall boost to the online
music industry. However, Facebook Music also will put pressure on Pandora. After
all, Facebook is looking to be the ultimate platform for music (as well as other
media, such as movies and television content). And it certainly will be a great
way to get a chunk of some high-margin revenues. Facebook's music efforts also
will put pressure on other top tech giants like Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN ) and Apple
(NASDAQ: AAPL ), who want to be the dominant player for entertainment platforms.
Thus, for a relatively small company, Pandora certainly has a lot of challenges
to deal with. It is no surprise that its stock price can't seem to find much
support. Tom Taulli is the author of "All About Short Selling" and "All
About Commodities." You can also find him at Twitter account @ttaulli. He does
not own a position in any of the stocks named here.
rocky ride for investors. After reaching a high of $26, they now are trading at
about $10.50. So what's the problem? Actually, it's not the service. For the
most part, Pandora has a great offering (Disclosure: I love it as well). But
when it comes to investing, good service is not enough. It's also important to
look at the barriers to entry. Unfortunately, in the case of the online music
industry, there are many worthy competitors trying to get a piece of the market.
The latest entrant came just this week: Facebook. The company is partnering with
other music operators like Spotify, MOG, iHeartRadio, Slacker and Rdio. Their
services will be integrated on the Facebook platform and allow users to share
playlists and music titles. They also will appear on a user's Timeline
(Facebooks new profile page). This should provide an overall boost to the online
music industry. However, Facebook Music also will put pressure on Pandora. After
all, Facebook is looking to be the ultimate platform for music (as well as other
media, such as movies and television content). And it certainly will be a great
way to get a chunk of some high-margin revenues. Facebook's music efforts also
will put pressure on other top tech giants like Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN ) and Apple
(NASDAQ: AAPL ), who want to be the dominant player for entertainment platforms.
Thus, for a relatively small company, Pandora certainly has a lot of challenges
to deal with. It is no surprise that its stock price can't seem to find much
support. Tom Taulli is the author of "All About Short Selling" and "All
About Commodities." You can also find him at Twitter account @ttaulli. He does
not own a position in any of the stocks named here.
Gold Futures Tumbles Over $100, Most in Five Years
XCSFDHG46767FHJHJF
DG365FD46564GFH654FU898 GOLD PRICE NEWS – The gold price tumbled Friday amid massive liquidation in the precious metals complex.
Gold Stocks Hammered, GDX Eyes Worst Week Since Oct 08
XCSFDHG46767FHJHJF
DG365FD46564GFH654FU898 GOLD STOCKS NEWS – Gold stocks plummeted on Friday, as the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) fell $4.27, or 7.2%, to $55.03 per share.
Analyst Actions on Chinese Stocks: ASIA, BIDU, CEA, CEO, CFSG, CHA, CHU, CIS … (Sep 23, 2011)
XCSFDHG46767FHJHJF
tdp2664 China Analyst Below are today's
Gold, Silver and Miners Pummeled Friday
XCSFDHG46767FHJHJF
tdp2664 InvestorPlace Gold and silver continued to move lower Friday despite ongoing weakness in the U.S. economy and persisting sovereign debt problems in the European Union. The U.S. dollar and Treasuries have become the preferred safe havens for traders after the Fed’s announcement of “Operation Twist.” Spot gold breached the $1,700-per-ounce level and kept plummeting. It was trading at $1,647 Bid, $1,648 Ask on Friday afternoon, hitting a high of $1,697.90 and a low of $1,628.60. The London p.m. gold fix was set at $1,689 by the LBMA . Spot silver was bid at $30.63 with an ask price of $30.73, hitting a mid-afternoon high of $33.44 and a low of $29.76. The reference price for spot delivery of an ounce of silver was set at $32.90 by the LBMA in the London a.m. Gold and silver trusts continued their steep slide Friday. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD ) was around 5.1% lower. The iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU ) was down around 5.2%. The iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV ) was around 14.2% lower. Gold and silver miners ETFs continued to fall sharply. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX ) was more than 5.7% lower. The Market Vector Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ ) was down 7.2%. The Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE: SIL ) was off more than 7%. Shares of gold miners continued their downward slide. Agnico Eagle Mines (USA) (NYSE: AEM ) was around 6.6% lower. Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX ) was showing losses of around 4.7%. Goldcorp (NYSE: GG ) was down around 4.5%. Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM ) was down some 4.6%. NovaGold Resources (USA) (AMEX: NG ) was off nearly 6%. Silver miners’ shares were hammered as well. Coeur D’Alene Mines Corp. (NYSE: CDE ) was around 6.2% lower. Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL ) was down around 6%. Pan American Silver Corp. (USA) ( NASDAQ : PAAS ) was 5.2% lower. Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) (NYSE: SLW ) was showing losses of around 9.6%. Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) ( NASDAQ : SSRI ) was down more than 7.6%. The author does not hold positions in any of the above-mentioned investments.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) Sales Growth Set To Continue
Analysts have reported that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)
Gold, Silver and Miners Pummeled Friday
Gold and silver continued to move lower Friday despite ongoing weakness in the
U.S. economy and persisting sovereign debt problems in the European Union. The
U.S. dollar and Treasuries have become the preferred safe havens for traders
after the Feds announcement of Operation Twist. Spot gold breached the
$1,700-per-ounce level and kept plummeting. It was trading at $1,647 Bid, $1,648
Ask on Friday afternoon, hitting a high of $1,697.90 and a low of $1,628.60. The
London p.m. gold fix was set at $1,689 by the LBMA . Spot silver was bid at
$30.63 with an ask price of $30.73, hitting a mid-afternoon high of $33.44 and a
low of $29.76. The reference price for spot delivery of an ounce of silver was
set at $32.90 by the LBMA in the London a.m. Gold and silver trusts continued
their steep slide Friday. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD ) was around 5.1%
lower. The iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU ) was down around 5.2%. The iShares
Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV ) was around 14.2% lower. Gold and silver miners ETFs
continued to fall sharply. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX ) was
more than 5.7% lower. The Market Vector Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ ) was
down 7.2%. The Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE: SIL ) was off more than 7%.
Shares of gold miners continued their downward slide. Agnico Eagle Mines (USA)
(NYSE: AEM ) was around 6.6% lower. Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX ) was showing
losses of around 4.7%. Goldcorp (NYSE: GG ) was down around 4.5%. Newmont Mining
Corp. (NYSE: NEM ) was down some 4.6%. NovaGold Resources (USA) (AMEX: NG ) was
off nearly 6%. Silver miners shares were hammered as well. Coeur DAlene Mines
Corp. (NYSE: CDE ) was around 6.2% lower. Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL ) was down
around 6%. Pan American Silver Corp. (USA) (NASDAQ: PAAS ) was 5.2% lower.
Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) (NYSE: SLW ) was showing losses of around 9.6%.
Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) (NASDAQ: SSRI ) was down more than 7.6%.
The author does not hold positions in any of the above-mentioned investments.
U.S. economy and persisting sovereign debt problems in the European Union. The
U.S. dollar and Treasuries have become the preferred safe havens for traders
after the Feds announcement of Operation Twist. Spot gold breached the
$1,700-per-ounce level and kept plummeting. It was trading at $1,647 Bid, $1,648
Ask on Friday afternoon, hitting a high of $1,697.90 and a low of $1,628.60. The
London p.m. gold fix was set at $1,689 by the LBMA . Spot silver was bid at
$30.63 with an ask price of $30.73, hitting a mid-afternoon high of $33.44 and a
low of $29.76. The reference price for spot delivery of an ounce of silver was
set at $32.90 by the LBMA in the London a.m. Gold and silver trusts continued
their steep slide Friday. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD ) was around 5.1%
lower. The iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU ) was down around 5.2%. The iShares
Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV ) was around 14.2% lower. Gold and silver miners ETFs
continued to fall sharply. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX ) was
more than 5.7% lower. The Market Vector Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ ) was
down 7.2%. The Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE: SIL ) was off more than 7%.
Shares of gold miners continued their downward slide. Agnico Eagle Mines (USA)
(NYSE: AEM ) was around 6.6% lower. Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX ) was showing
losses of around 4.7%. Goldcorp (NYSE: GG ) was down around 4.5%. Newmont Mining
Corp. (NYSE: NEM ) was down some 4.6%. NovaGold Resources (USA) (AMEX: NG ) was
off nearly 6%. Silver miners shares were hammered as well. Coeur DAlene Mines
Corp. (NYSE: CDE ) was around 6.2% lower. Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL ) was down
around 6%. Pan American Silver Corp. (USA) (NASDAQ: PAAS ) was 5.2% lower.
Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) (NYSE: SLW ) was showing losses of around 9.6%.
Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) (NASDAQ: SSRI ) was down more than 7.6%.
The author does not hold positions in any of the above-mentioned investments.
Zynga IPO: The Game Just Got Harder
Wasn't Zynga supposed to be a slam-dunk IPO? It sure seemed like it when the
company filed its S-1 back in early July. But of course, since then the equities
markets have experienced extreme volatility. As a result, Zynga has delayed its
offering. But Zynga might have more to worry about. According to its latest
filing, the company has experienced a slowdown in the business. In the second
quarter, Zynga attracted 59 million average daily users, which compares to 62
million in the prior quarter. As a result, bookings dropped by about 4% this
never has happened for Zynga. The problem? The company has had a dry spell with
its games. Let's face it: Zynga's audience can be extremely fickle. And it
is getting more expensive to develop social games. In the latest quarter, Zynga
hiked expenses as profits plunged from $16.8 million to $1.4 million. During the
past year, the headcount has gone from 1,483 to 2,451. Zynga also is feeling
strong competitive pressures, especially from Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS ).
Once considered a has-been, the company has made some savvy acquisitions, such
as for Playfish and PopCap. Electronic Arts also has been leveraging its
extensive gaming franchises. For example, it launched The Sims Social title just
three months ago and it already is the No. 2 game on Facebook, with 53 million
monthly active users. Zynga still is a great company and is growing at a rapid
clip, so the company still should be able to pull off its IPO. As seen with the
shares of LinkedIn (NYSE: LNKD ), investors still are hungry for social plays.
But Zynga might have to get more realistic about its valuation. And during the
next couple years, it is likely Zyngas growth rate will continue to trail off as
more competition enters the market. Tom Taulli is the author of "All About
Short Selling" and "All About Commodities." You can also find him at
Twitter account @ttaulli. He does not own a position in any of the stocks named
here.
company filed its S-1 back in early July. But of course, since then the equities
markets have experienced extreme volatility. As a result, Zynga has delayed its
offering. But Zynga might have more to worry about. According to its latest
filing, the company has experienced a slowdown in the business. In the second
quarter, Zynga attracted 59 million average daily users, which compares to 62
million in the prior quarter. As a result, bookings dropped by about 4% this
never has happened for Zynga. The problem? The company has had a dry spell with
its games. Let's face it: Zynga's audience can be extremely fickle. And it
is getting more expensive to develop social games. In the latest quarter, Zynga
hiked expenses as profits plunged from $16.8 million to $1.4 million. During the
past year, the headcount has gone from 1,483 to 2,451. Zynga also is feeling
strong competitive pressures, especially from Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS ).
Once considered a has-been, the company has made some savvy acquisitions, such
as for Playfish and PopCap. Electronic Arts also has been leveraging its
extensive gaming franchises. For example, it launched The Sims Social title just
three months ago and it already is the No. 2 game on Facebook, with 53 million
monthly active users. Zynga still is a great company and is growing at a rapid
clip, so the company still should be able to pull off its IPO. As seen with the
shares of LinkedIn (NYSE: LNKD ), investors still are hungry for social plays.
But Zynga might have to get more realistic about its valuation. And during the
next couple years, it is likely Zyngas growth rate will continue to trail off as
more competition enters the market. Tom Taulli is the author of "All About
Short Selling" and "All About Commodities." You can also find him at
Twitter account @ttaulli. He does not own a position in any of the stocks named
here.
Gold vs. U.S. Treasuries – Which is the True Safe Heaven?
The decision of FOMC to purchase $400 billion worth of Long Term Securities by
selling Short Term Securities by the end of June 2012, may have triggered a
sharp reaction in the financial markets that turned into a sharp drop in
commodities prices, including gold price, a sharp appreciation in USD, and a
decrease in US stock markets and US Long Term Securities. The recent shift in
the direction of gold price may have raised the old debate among traders as the
merits of keeping gold vs. U.S. Treasuries. A commenter on the site resurfaced
this issue and I think it calls for a close look at the two investment tools and
try and compare their relation and list the advantages of each investment over
the other (Thanks Jlmuza for your comment and idea). U.S. Treasuries / Gold
Price – September During September, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has shed
0.51 percent points of its rate. The main spike came in the past few days
perhaps over the concern of Greek debt default. The FOMC announcement only
further accelerated the process as traders showed their discontent with the
current instability in the financial markets and with the modest plan of
selling Short Term Securities by the end of June 2012, may have triggered a
sharp reaction in the financial markets that turned into a sharp drop in
commodities prices, including gold price, a sharp appreciation in USD, and a
decrease in US stock markets and US Long Term Securities. The recent shift in
the direction of gold price may have raised the old debate among traders as the
merits of keeping gold vs. U.S. Treasuries. A commenter on the site resurfaced
this issue and I think it calls for a close look at the two investment tools and
try and compare their relation and list the advantages of each investment over
the other (Thanks Jlmuza for your comment and idea). U.S. Treasuries / Gold
Price – September During September, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has shed
0.51 percent points of its rate. The main spike came in the past few days
perhaps over the concern of Greek debt default. The FOMC announcement only
further accelerated the process as traders showed their discontent with the
current instability in the financial markets and with the modest plan of
Gold Futures Tumbles Over $100, Most in Five Years
GOLD PRICE NEWS The gold price tumbled Friday amid massive liquidation in the
precious metals complex.
precious metals complex.
Friday Apple Rumors: iPhone 5 Supplier in Bubble Trouble
Here are your Apple news items and rumors for Friday: Touchscreen Troubles for
iPhone 5 Release? DigiTimes reported on Friday that flaws in the touchscreens
used in manufacturing Apple 's (NASDAQ: AAPL ) still-unannounced iPhone 5
might cause some shortages of the device when it releases in October. The
website's source claims that Wintek, which produces nearly one-quarter of the
touchscreens used for Apple's new phone , is unable to prevent its touch
panels from forming a "delayed bubble" defect during production. TPK
Holdings and Chimei are Apple's other suppliers and might have to pick up the
slack left from Wintek for Apple to meet its goal of shipping around 25 million
iPhone 5s this fall. Financial Times' Web App More Popular Than iPhone App:
Pearson 's (NYSE: PSO ) Financial Times pulled a fast one on Apple in June
when it released an interactive version of its magazine that could be read on
the iPhone and iPad through those devices' Safari web browser. It was a fast
one because Pearson avoided having to pay the 30% cut Apple takes of every
transaction made through its App Store. According to a Friday report in Reuters
(via 9 to 5 Mac ), the move worked out well for Financial Times . The web app
version of the magazine has proven more popular than the original iOS-based app
sold in the App Store, netting the paper a total of 700,000 users. However,
publishing on the iPad and iPhone still is an inexact science. The New Yorker
has crowed about its success selling its own app through the App Store , but
that publication only has a readership of around 100,000. It looks like
publishers might be better off bringing their app versions to the web rather
than Apple. iPhone Users Worried About Security: A new study from research firm
NPD Group, detailed in a TUAW report, found iPhone users aren't completely
ecstatic about the new smartphone world. Both iPhone and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG )
Android phone users are highly concerned about security on their devices .
Almost 40% of all iPhone users are concerned that credit card theft, location
tracking, malware and personal file hacking are concerns inherent in using their
smartphone of choice. iPhone users should relax. Intel 's (NASDAQ: INTC )
McAfee computer security company reported in August that no malware targeting
the iPhone has been discovered yet . As of this writing, Anthony John Agnello
did not own a position in any of the stocks named here. Follow him on Twitter
at
iPhone 5 Release? DigiTimes reported on Friday that flaws in the touchscreens
used in manufacturing Apple 's (NASDAQ: AAPL ) still-unannounced iPhone 5
might cause some shortages of the device when it releases in October. The
website's source claims that Wintek, which produces nearly one-quarter of the
touchscreens used for Apple's new phone , is unable to prevent its touch
panels from forming a "delayed bubble" defect during production. TPK
Holdings and Chimei are Apple's other suppliers and might have to pick up the
slack left from Wintek for Apple to meet its goal of shipping around 25 million
iPhone 5s this fall. Financial Times' Web App More Popular Than iPhone App:
Pearson 's (NYSE: PSO ) Financial Times pulled a fast one on Apple in June
when it released an interactive version of its magazine that could be read on
the iPhone and iPad through those devices' Safari web browser. It was a fast
one because Pearson avoided having to pay the 30% cut Apple takes of every
transaction made through its App Store. According to a Friday report in Reuters
(via 9 to 5 Mac ), the move worked out well for Financial Times . The web app
version of the magazine has proven more popular than the original iOS-based app
sold in the App Store, netting the paper a total of 700,000 users. However,
publishing on the iPad and iPhone still is an inexact science. The New Yorker
has crowed about its success selling its own app through the App Store , but
that publication only has a readership of around 100,000. It looks like
publishers might be better off bringing their app versions to the web rather
than Apple. iPhone Users Worried About Security: A new study from research firm
NPD Group, detailed in a TUAW report, found iPhone users aren't completely
ecstatic about the new smartphone world. Both iPhone and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG )
Android phone users are highly concerned about security on their devices .
Almost 40% of all iPhone users are concerned that credit card theft, location
tracking, malware and personal file hacking are concerns inherent in using their
smartphone of choice. iPhone users should relax. Intel 's (NASDAQ: INTC )
McAfee computer security company reported in August that no malware targeting
the iPhone has been discovered yet . As of this writing, Anthony John Agnello
did not own a position in any of the stocks named here. Follow him on Twitter
at
Top 10 Micro Cap Stocks with Highest Momentum: AHCI, PMIC, NSTC, CFSG, NMK PR B, CAZAU, PNNW, FDI, GRB, GNET (Sep 23, 2011)
Below are the top 10 Micro Cap stocks with highest price momentum. One Chinese
company (CFSG) is on the list. Allied Healthcare International Inc.
(NASDAQ:AHCI) has the 1st highest price momentum in this segment of the market.
It is trading at 99.5% of 52-week high. Its price change was 2.7% for the last 4
weeks. Penn Millers Holding Corporation (NASDAQ:PMIC) has the 2nd highest price
momentum in this segment of the market. It is trading at 99.2% of 52-week high.
Its price change was 27.2% for the last 4 weeks. Ness Technologies, Inc.
(NASDAQ:NSTC) has the 3rd highest price momentum in this segment of the market.
It is trading at 98.8% of 52-week high. Its price change was 0.5% for the last 4
weeks. China Fire & Security Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:CFSG) has the 4th highest price
momentum in this segment of the market. It is trading at 98.5% of 52-week high.
Its price change was 5.0% for the last 4 weeks. Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation
(NYSE:NMK PR B) has the 5th highest price momentum in this segment of the
market. It is trading at 98.5% of 52-week high. Its price change was 0.0% for
the last 4 weeks. Cazador Acquisition Corporation Ltd (NASDAQ:CAZAU) has the 6th
highest price momentum in this segment of the market. It is trading at 98.3% of
52-week high. Its price change was 0.8% for the last 4 weeks. Pennichuck
Corporation (NASDAQ:PNNW) has the 7th highest price momentum in this segment of
the market. It is trading at 98.2% of 52-week high. Its price change was 0.9%
for the last 4 weeks. Fort Dearborn Income Securities, Inc. (NYSE:FDI) has the
8th highest price momentum in this segment of the market. It is trading at 98.1%
of 52-week high. Its price change was 4.3% for the last 4 weeks. Gerber
Scientific, Inc. (NYSE:GRB) has the 9th highest price momentum in this segment
of the market. It is trading at 97.7% of 52-week high. Its price change was
-0.3% for the last 4 weeks. Global Traffic Network, Inc. (NASDAQ:GNET) has the
10th highest price momentum in this segment of the market. It is trading at
97.4% of 52-week high. Its price change was 0.4% for the last 4 weeks.
company (CFSG) is on the list. Allied Healthcare International Inc.
(NASDAQ:AHCI) has the 1st highest price momentum in this segment of the market.
It is trading at 99.5% of 52-week high. Its price change was 2.7% for the last 4
weeks. Penn Millers Holding Corporation (NASDAQ:PMIC) has the 2nd highest price
momentum in this segment of the market. It is trading at 99.2% of 52-week high.
Its price change was 27.2% for the last 4 weeks. Ness Technologies, Inc.
(NASDAQ:NSTC) has the 3rd highest price momentum in this segment of the market.
It is trading at 98.8% of 52-week high. Its price change was 0.5% for the last 4
weeks. China Fire & Security Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:CFSG) has the 4th highest price
momentum in this segment of the market. It is trading at 98.5% of 52-week high.
Its price change was 5.0% for the last 4 weeks. Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation
(NYSE:NMK PR B) has the 5th highest price momentum in this segment of the
market. It is trading at 98.5% of 52-week high. Its price change was 0.0% for
the last 4 weeks. Cazador Acquisition Corporation Ltd (NASDAQ:CAZAU) has the 6th
highest price momentum in this segment of the market. It is trading at 98.3% of
52-week high. Its price change was 0.8% for the last 4 weeks. Pennichuck
Corporation (NASDAQ:PNNW) has the 7th highest price momentum in this segment of
the market. It is trading at 98.2% of 52-week high. Its price change was 0.9%
for the last 4 weeks. Fort Dearborn Income Securities, Inc. (NYSE:FDI) has the
8th highest price momentum in this segment of the market. It is trading at 98.1%
of 52-week high. Its price change was 4.3% for the last 4 weeks. Gerber
Scientific, Inc. (NYSE:GRB) has the 9th highest price momentum in this segment
of the market. It is trading at 97.7% of 52-week high. Its price change was
-0.3% for the last 4 weeks. Global Traffic Network, Inc. (NASDAQ:GNET) has the
10th highest price momentum in this segment of the market. It is trading at
97.4% of 52-week high. Its price change was 0.4% for the last 4 weeks.
Royal Gold In Retrospect: Shares Down 4.5% Since Downgraded One Week Ago (RGLD)
Royal Gold In Retrospect: Shares Down 4.5% Since Downgraded One Week Ago (RGLD)
Financial News Network Online - 1 hour ago HSBC downgraded Royal Gold
(NASDAQ:RGLD) from Overweight to Neutral a week ago. Royal Gold shares are
selling at $76.60, 4.5% below the $80.23 price point of one week ago. Royal
Gold, Inc. is a ...
Financial News Network Online - 1 hour ago HSBC downgraded Royal Gold
(NASDAQ:RGLD) from Overweight to Neutral a week ago. Royal Gold shares are
selling at $76.60, 4.5% below the $80.23 price point of one week ago. Royal
Gold, Inc. is a ...
Gold Price Breaks Down Through $1,700
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DG365FD46564GFH654FU898 GOLD PRICE NEWS – The gold price plunged again Friday, sinking $56.70 to $1,684 per ounce.
Royal Dutch Shell plc (LON:RDSA) To Look For Tight Oil
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tdp2664 E money daily Royal Dutch Shell plc (LON:RDSA) has targeted North American 'tight oil'. Flash Player 9 or higher is required to view the chart Click here to download Flash Player now View the full RDSA chart at Wikinvest Royal Dutch Shell plc (LON:RDSA) To Look For Tight Oil Reports say that Royal Dutch Shell plc (LON:RDSA), Europe's biggest oil and gas company, is planning to start production from North American "tight oil" reserves. According to Royal Dutch Shell plc (LON:RDSA) it is making progress towards the right size of opportunity, and it is considering assets in the Eagle Ford shale in Texas as one promising opportunity. Peter Voser, Royal Dutch Shell plc (LON:RDSA) chief executive, said that, "Having built a large position in North American "tight gas", such as
Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (LON:RBS) To Increase Cash Withdrawal Services
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tdp2664 E money daily Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (LON:RBS) is set to extend its cash withdrawal service to post offices. Flash Player 9 or higher is required to view the chart Click here to download Flash Player now View the full RBS chart at Wikinvest Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (LON:RBS) To Increase Cash Withdrawal Services Current account customers of Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (LON:RBS) will be able to withdraw cash and check balances at their nearest post offices from 23 September. This service will allow the bank to extend its services to areas where the bank has no local branches. Les Matheson, managing director of retail products at Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (LON:RBS), said, "We welcome this move as it gives our customers another option to access their money through the Post Office network". Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (LON:RBS) stocks stood at 21.98 at the end of the last trading session. Price History Last Price: 21.98 52 Week Range: 19.60- 50.00 Last Vol: 39560816 3 Month Vol: 114184000
China Slowdown Less Crash, More Cool Calculation
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tdp2664 InvestorPlace Investors don't have much of an appetite for China these days. The iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (NYSE: FXI ) — an ETF that acts as a benchmark measure of China's biggest stocks — has plunged about 13% during the past five trading sessions. Waning metrics in the Chinese economy, along with a general sense of fear that we could be on the precipice of another global recession, can be blamed for much of the capital flight away from Chinese equities. One metric clearly headed lower is HSBC's China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index , also known as the "flash" PMI. The measure dropped to a two-month low in September to a reading of 49.2, which is down from 50.2 in August. Any reading below the 50 level is considered a sign of contraction in industrial output. The widely watched number also suggests a wider slowdown in the Chinese economy. While the weaker Chinese manufacturing numbers do indeed signal a contraction in the country's economy, it helps to put this contraction in context with the wider economic picture in China. First off, the HSBC "flash" PMI data confirming the economic cooling taking place in China actually is commensurate with the goal of policymakers in Beijing. Officials who turn the dials on the Chinese economy have repeatedly increased bank reserve requirements this year — all in an effort to keep lending from getting out of control, and to keep a lid on rising real estate prices and the more pernicious food inflation. To a large extent, China has succeeded in this effort, and the evidence, in part, is the contraction in industrial output. Ironically, what we're seeing in China is almost the polar opposite of what's going on the U.S., as the Federal Reserve is trying to keep interest rates low to stimulate economic growth. It's also attempting to "twist" the maturities on bond holdings to facilitate more lending and more home buying. The fact is that even with a slowdown, the Chinese economy is light-years away from a crash. Just look at the recent GDP growth estimates from the International Monetary Fund, which have the Chinese economy "slowing" to 9.5% growth in 2011. Yes, that figure is less than the 10.3% growth we saw in 2010; however, even the slower growth still accounts for more than 30% of the world's total GDP. Yes, China is slowing down, but not nearly enough to cause a so-called "hard landing" or GDP growth below 8%. For investors with an intrepid sense of adventure and the stomach for a lot of volatility, getting in on Chinese stocks now could pay off big time in the months to come. The iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index hasn't traded at current levels since April 2009, and that means you can buy China's growth at a discount price. At the time of publication, Jim Woods held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this article.
Oil Plays: Why Drill When You Can Integrate?
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tdp2664 InvestorPlace When it comes to the stock market , not all oil companies are created equal. For instance, drillers like Transocean (NYSE: RIG )
Gold Price Breaks Down Through $1,700
GOLD PRICE NEWS – The gold price plunged again Friday, sinking $56.70 to
$1,684 per ounce.
$1,684 per ounce.
Potential Randgold Resources (GOLD) Trade Has $96.44 Breakeven
Potential Randgold Resources (GOLD) Trade Has $96.44 Breakeven Market
Intelligence Center - 1 hour ago Randgold Resources (NASDAQ:GOLD) closed
Thursdays unfavorable trading session at $102.94. In the past year, the stock
has hit a 52-week low of $70.18 and 52-week high of $115.00. Randgold ...
Intelligence Center - 1 hour ago Randgold Resources (NASDAQ:GOLD) closed
Thursdays unfavorable trading session at $102.94. In the past year, the stock
has hit a 52-week low of $70.18 and 52-week high of $115.00. Randgold ...
Gold & Silver Prices – Daily Outlook September 23
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DG365FD46564GFH654FU898 Gold and silver
5 Great Long-Term Growth Stocks
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tdp2664 InvestorPlace If a company is successful in being a leader in an expanding industry, it can perform even if it reinvests more of its profits rather than paying you a bigger dividend. But just because a company is successful at reinvesting to provide growth in further business assets and revenues doesn't guarantee the market will pay attention. Countless companies around the world are solid and improving their business values, but their stock doesn't perform in line with their improved fortunes. Therefore, it really doesn't matter if management is great and the company is a global leader if the stock market doesn't deliver the returns to justify buying it without a bigger dividend. This is why this collection of “Long Haulers” is very short and selective — the stock markets of the globe have little patience for even the best of businesses. And with the recent series of gut-wrenching plunges and bounces in stock markets, investing for the long haul can be downright hazardous right now for your retirement. Despite some of the recent price gyrations, the Long Haulers have been proving their mission by delivering not just positive performance, but solid gains that work with dividend stocks to offset inflationary threats and other pricing challenges for your own retirement expenses now and for the years to come. Monsanto Agricultural technology company Monsanto (NYSE: MON ) has more than delivered during the past year as the market has begun to catch up with its new mission to focus on seed technologies and higher-value-added chemicals. The result is that — with soaring demand for more food and other crops, and limited acreage — Monsanto continues to build up sales and build up its business value. And the stock market is recognizing it. During the past year — including the recent market mayhem — Monsanto has delivered a return in excess of 24%. And you can expect a lot more from this company in the year to come. Samsung Other companies have had some setbacks in the near term with the massive market moves of recent weeks. But there still is the long-term proven track record of matching rising sales to the near lockstep performance of the stock. Samsung (PINK: SSNLF ) is such a stock. With concerns about consumer and industrial demands in the U.S. and Europe, the stock has taken some hits recently. But given that Samsung’s markets are much broader than that of just the U.S. or Europe — even if we do see anemic expansion in general terms — the company still should continue to provide offsetting sales gains in Latin America, Africa, and — most importantly — Asia. So, for now, look at the recent price action as an opportunity to reinvest some of the cash into this long-term success company.
Mattel vs. Hasbro: Who’s the Star of This Season’s Toy Story?
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tdp2664 InvestorPlace Since 80% of American consumers' now believe we're in a recession , it's white-knuckle time for the retail industry, which desperately needs strong holiday sales. But while Scrooge may haunt the hopes of many Christmas presents, one sector has proven itself resilient in bad times: toys. And that’s good news for big manufacturers like Mattel ( NASDAQ : MAT ) and Hasbro ( NASDAQ : HAS ) this holiday season. Make no mistake, it's looking pretty grim for retail in general: Industry research firm ShopperTrak on Wednesday predicted November and December sales will rise only 3% — down from last year's 4.1%. But parents traditionally have been willing to sacrifice for their kids, so toy sales fared better than the rest of the retail industry during the recession. HAS and MAT have been forced to increase prices this year to offset higher production and raw materials costs, which could encounter resistance from consumers. So which company is best positioned to win the starring role in this season's toy story? Recent Earnings Mattel's second-quarter earnings increased 56% to $80.5 million. MAT, which next reports earnings on Oct. 14, grew sales by 14% to $1.16 billion. Barbie sales alone rose 12%, while Hot Wheels sales slipped 2%. Hasbro's second-quarter earnings were up 33% to $58.1 million. HAS, which next reports earnings on Oct. 17, grew sales by 23% to $908.5 million. Driven by Transformers, boys' toy sales rose 96% to $406.4 million, while girls toy sales declined 11% to $119.1 million. Girls vs. Boys Barbie might be 52, but she still reigns as Mattel's prom queen, helping MAT post its greatest second-quarter growth in more than 10 years: 12%. The company's entire girls portfolio is dominant, particularly Disney Princess and Monster High. Mattel's tie-in with Disney/Pixar's Cars 2 is so far outperforming Toy Story 3 . Hasbro's boys brands lead the pack with Paramount's Transformers: Dark of the Moon . Beyblade, Marvel and Tonka also are performing well. HAS also reinvented My Little Pony with its "Friendship is Magic" series last year. One big concern: The company's game and puzzle revenues are down and HAS still is clearing out 2010 inventory.
Tipper trucks start journey to Gounkoto mine
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gol2664 Negocioenlinea Tipper trucks start journey to Gounkoto mine Mineweb – 1 hour ago Dakar, Senegal, 22 September 2011 – Eleven specially modified 50 tonne trucks have arrived in Dakar in Senegal en route to the new Gounkoto gold mine at Randgold Resources' Loulo mining complex in …
Mattel vs. Hasbro: Who’s the Star of This Season’s Toy Story?
Since 80% of American consumers' now believe we're in a recession , it's
white-knuckle time for the retail industry, which desperately needs strong
holiday sales. But while Scrooge may haunt the hopes of many Christmas presents,
one sector has proven itself resilient in bad times: toys. And thats good news
for big manufacturers like Mattel (NASDAQ: MAT ) and Hasbro (NASDAQ: HAS ) this
holiday season. Make no mistake, it's looking pretty grim for retail in
general: Industry research firm ShopperTrak on Wednesday predicted November and
December sales will rise only 3% down from last year's 4.1%. But parents
traditionally have been willing to sacrifice for their kids, so toy sales fared
better than the rest of the retail industry during the recession. HAS and MAT
have been forced to increase prices this year to offset higher production and
raw materials costs, which could encounter resistance from consumers. So which
company is best positioned to win the starring role in this season's toy
story? Recent Earnings Mattel's second-quarter earnings increased 56% to $80.5
million. MAT, which next reports earnings on Oct. 14, grew sales by 14% to $1.16
billion. Barbie sales alone rose 12%, while Hot Wheels sales slipped 2%.
Hasbro's second-quarter earnings were up 33% to $58.1 million. HAS, which next
reports earnings on Oct. 17, grew sales by 23% to $908.5 million. Driven by
Transformers, boys' toy sales rose 96% to $406.4 million, while girls toy
sales declined 11% to $119.1 million. Girls vs. Boys Barbie might be 52, but she
still reigns as Mattel's prom queen, helping MAT post its greatest
second-quarter growth in more than 10 years: 12%. The company's entire girls
portfolio is dominant, particularly Disney Princess and Monster High. Mattel's
tie-in with Disney/Pixar's Cars 2 is so far outperforming Toy Story 3 .
Hasbro's boys brands lead the pack with Paramount's Transformers: Dark of
the Moon . Beyblade, Marvel and Tonka also are performing well. HAS also
reinvented My Little Pony with its "Friendship is Magic" series last year.
One big concern: The company's game and puzzle revenues are down and HAS still
is clearing out 2010 inventory.
white-knuckle time for the retail industry, which desperately needs strong
holiday sales. But while Scrooge may haunt the hopes of many Christmas presents,
one sector has proven itself resilient in bad times: toys. And thats good news
for big manufacturers like Mattel (NASDAQ: MAT ) and Hasbro (NASDAQ: HAS ) this
holiday season. Make no mistake, it's looking pretty grim for retail in
general: Industry research firm ShopperTrak on Wednesday predicted November and
December sales will rise only 3% down from last year's 4.1%. But parents
traditionally have been willing to sacrifice for their kids, so toy sales fared
better than the rest of the retail industry during the recession. HAS and MAT
have been forced to increase prices this year to offset higher production and
raw materials costs, which could encounter resistance from consumers. So which
company is best positioned to win the starring role in this season's toy
story? Recent Earnings Mattel's second-quarter earnings increased 56% to $80.5
million. MAT, which next reports earnings on Oct. 14, grew sales by 14% to $1.16
billion. Barbie sales alone rose 12%, while Hot Wheels sales slipped 2%.
Hasbro's second-quarter earnings were up 33% to $58.1 million. HAS, which next
reports earnings on Oct. 17, grew sales by 23% to $908.5 million. Driven by
Transformers, boys' toy sales rose 96% to $406.4 million, while girls toy
sales declined 11% to $119.1 million. Girls vs. Boys Barbie might be 52, but she
still reigns as Mattel's prom queen, helping MAT post its greatest
second-quarter growth in more than 10 years: 12%. The company's entire girls
portfolio is dominant, particularly Disney Princess and Monster High. Mattel's
tie-in with Disney/Pixar's Cars 2 is so far outperforming Toy Story 3 .
Hasbro's boys brands lead the pack with Paramount's Transformers: Dark of
the Moon . Beyblade, Marvel and Tonka also are performing well. HAS also
reinvented My Little Pony with its "Friendship is Magic" series last year.
One big concern: The company's game and puzzle revenues are down and HAS still
is clearing out 2010 inventory.
Tipper trucks start journey to Gounkoto mine
Tipper trucks start journey to Gounkoto mine Mineweb - 1 hour ago Dakar,
Senegal, 22 September 2011 - Eleven specially modified 50 tonne trucks have
arrived in Dakar in Senegal en route to the new Gounkoto gold mine at Randgold
Resources Loulo mining complex in ...
Senegal, 22 September 2011 - Eleven specially modified 50 tonne trucks have
arrived in Dakar in Senegal en route to the new Gounkoto gold mine at Randgold
Resources Loulo mining complex in ...
The Market is Headed Lower, But When?
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tdp2664 InvestorPlace Serge Berger is the head trader and investment strategist for The Steady Trader . Sign up for his free weekly newsletter . After an ugly close on Wednesday, traders were greeted with much lower futures yesterday morning, indicating a lower open in the majorU.S.equity indices. Relative to the extremely poor open, stocks remained in a range all day, albeit in a downward trending one.
Todays Dow Jones Industrial Average Index DJX DJI, Nasdaq, S&P 500 Stock Market Investing News
XCSFDHG46767FHJHJF
dow2664 A significant stock sell-off initiated on Wednesday and stock indices in the U.S. have struggled since. By mid-day of the last trading session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had lost over 400 points. Investor fears were growing on a global perspective. The primary stock indices in Asia all closed over 2 percent lower. The primary indices in Europe dropped over 4 percent during their respective trading session. Reports posted yesterday relaying that the Chinese and eurozone manufacturing sectors are contracting. This added to the negative weight felt by the world marketplace yesterday and the pressure carried over into the U.S. trading session. Adding to the bad news in the U.S. was the weaker than expected jobs data that posted. According to the Labor Department, the number of Americans applying for first time unemployment benefits rose higher and posted at 423,000 for last week. This added to the pressure stock trends felt during the last session as well. Officially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished off the last session lower by 391.01 points and closed at 10,733.83. The DJIA had lost 500 points at one point during the session. The Nasdaq finished off the last session lower by 82.52 points and closed out at 2,456. The S&P 500 closed out negative by 37.20 points at 1,129.56. There appeared to be little safe haven. Even precious metal gold fell lower during the tidal wave of negativity. The sell-offs started early in yesterday’s session and trends showed no chance of rebound during the day. The activity was an overt symbol of investor trust. The economy is weak, and investors know it. The negative action yesterday was this understanding presenting in a more tangible form. Recession fears are growing. Frank Matto
How to Survive This Market
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tdp2664 InvestorPlace Believe it or not, there was some good news yesterday: New claims for unemployment benefits dropped, there was an improvement in the leading economic indicators for the fourth consecutive month, andU.S.home prices increased in July for the fourth straight month. But investors ignored the good news, and in a rush for the exits sold off stocks, bonds and commodities as fear of a global recession gripped the markets. Wednesday's statement by the Federal Reserve that there were "significant" downside risks to the economy and "strains" in global financial markets triggered massive fear among investors. And as sell orders mounted, margin calls fed more liquidating orders into the stock and futures markets.
Express Scripts-Medco Merger Still Looks Like a Go
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tdp2664 InvestorPlace One industry analyst has lowered the odds that the U.S. Federal Trade Commission will give its blessing to the proposed acquisition of Medco Health Solutions
Todays Dow Jones Industrial Average Index DJX DJI, Nasdaq, S&P 500 Stock Market Investing News
A significant stock sell-off initiated on Wednesday and stock indices in the
U.S. have struggled since. By mid-day of the last trading session, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average had lost over 400 points. Investor fears were growing on a
global perspective. The primary stock indices in Asia all closed over 2 percent
lower. The primary indices in Europe dropped over 4 percent during their
respective trading session. Reports posted yesterday relaying that the Chinese
and eurozone manufacturing sectors are contracting. This added to the negative
weight felt by the world marketplace yesterday and the pressure carried over
into the U.S. trading session. Adding to the bad news in the U.S. was the weaker
than expected jobs data that posted. According to the Labor Department, the
number of Americans applying for first time unemployment benefits rose higher
and posted at 423,000 for last week. This added to the pressure stock trends
felt during the last session as well. Officially, the Dow Jones Industrial
Average finished off the last session lower by 391.01 points and closed at
10,733.83. The DJIA had lost 500 points at one point during the session. The
Nasdaq finished off the last session lower by 82.52 points and closed out at
2,456. The S&P 500 closed out negative by 37.20 points at 1,129.56. There
appeared to be little safe haven. Even precious metal gold fell lower during the
tidal wave of negativity. The sell-offs started early in yesterdays session and
trends showed no chance of rebound during the day. The activity was an overt
symbol of investor trust. The economy is weak, and investors know it. The
negative action yesterday was this understanding presenting in a more tangible
form. Recession fears are growing. Frank Matto
U.S. have struggled since. By mid-day of the last trading session, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average had lost over 400 points. Investor fears were growing on a
global perspective. The primary stock indices in Asia all closed over 2 percent
lower. The primary indices in Europe dropped over 4 percent during their
respective trading session. Reports posted yesterday relaying that the Chinese
and eurozone manufacturing sectors are contracting. This added to the negative
weight felt by the world marketplace yesterday and the pressure carried over
into the U.S. trading session. Adding to the bad news in the U.S. was the weaker
than expected jobs data that posted. According to the Labor Department, the
number of Americans applying for first time unemployment benefits rose higher
and posted at 423,000 for last week. This added to the pressure stock trends
felt during the last session as well. Officially, the Dow Jones Industrial
Average finished off the last session lower by 391.01 points and closed at
10,733.83. The DJIA had lost 500 points at one point during the session. The
Nasdaq finished off the last session lower by 82.52 points and closed out at
2,456. The S&P 500 closed out negative by 37.20 points at 1,129.56. There
appeared to be little safe haven. Even precious metal gold fell lower during the
tidal wave of negativity. The sell-offs started early in yesterdays session and
trends showed no chance of rebound during the day. The activity was an overt
symbol of investor trust. The economy is weak, and investors know it. The
negative action yesterday was this understanding presenting in a more tangible
form. Recession fears are growing. Frank Matto
Gold Silver and Oil Sharply Declined – Daily Recap September 22
XCSFDHG46767FHJHJF
DG365FD46564GFH654FU898 Major commodities suffered one of the sharpest declines of 2011: Gold and silver prices sharply decreased as many attribute the catalyst for this reaction was the recent decision of the FOMC to purchase $400 billion long term securities by the end of June 2012.
DJIA Index DJX DJI Drops Big; MSN Money Stock Quotes USAA Mutual Fund Drops Red Stock Market Investing News
XCSFDHG46767FHJHJF
dow2664 The stock market indices in the U.S. plummeted during the last trading session. The sell-offs that initiated Wednesday, carried through and continued after opening bell Thursday. The Dow Jones experienced significant losses just after opening bell and did not recover. At one point, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had lost approximately 500 points on the day. Investors on Wall Street experienced a disappointing reality on Wednesday when the Federal Reserve posted remarks after its two day policy meetings. Many were hoping for the Feds to come to the economic rescue, but this did not happen. The Feds will not be initiating another round of economic stimulus at this point in time. The dollars that investors were hoping to see injected into the economy are not forthcoming. The primary indices moved significantly lower as stocks were hammered throughout the day. U.S. stocks ended sharply lower and many fear the recession double dip, and some expect it could be worse. Individual stocks felt the heat and a multitude of funds dropped lower as a result. The USAA Aggressive growth mutual fund closed out the day in the red. USAUX dropped 3.72 percent on the day to close out at 30.02 per share. Previous close for the fund was 31.18. Frank Matto
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