Friday, January 20, 2012

The Gold Price Utterly Blasted my Expectations Today, Closing Up 2 Percent for the Week at $1,663.70

Gold Price Close Today : 1,663.70 Gold Price Close 13-Jan : 1,630.60 Change :
33.10 or 2.0% Silver Price Close Today : 3164.7 Silver Price Close 13-Jan :
2949.3 Change : 215.40 or 7.3% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.571 Gold Silver
Ratio 13-Jan : 55.288 Change : -2.72 or -4.9% Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01902 Silver
Gold Ratio 13-Jan : 0.01809 Change : 0.00093 or 5.2% Dow in Gold Dollars : $
158.05 Dow in Gold Dollars 13-Jan : $ 157.48 Change : $ 0.57 or 0.4% Dow in Gold
Ounces : 7.646 Dow in Gold Ounces 13-Jan : 7.618 Change : 0.03 or 0.4% Dow in
Silver Ounces : 401.95 Dow in Silver Ounces 13-Jan : 421.19 Change : -19.24 or
-4.6% Dow Industrial : 12,720.48 Dow Industrial 13-Jan : 12,422.21 Change :
298.27 or 2.4% S&P 500 : 1,315.38 S&P 500 13-Jan : 1,289.10 Change : 26.28 or
2.0% US Dollar Index : 80.155 US Dollar Index 13-Jan : 81.531 Change : -1.376 or
-1.7% Platinum Price Close Today : 1,530.50 Platinum Price Close 13-Jan :
1,485.80 Change : 44.70 or 3.0% Palladium Price Close Today : 673.85 Palladium
Price Close 13-Jan : 636.70 Change : 37.15 or 5.8% The GOLD PRICE and SILVER
PRICE utterly blasted my expectations today, and crushed underfoot any suspicion
of a key reversal from yesterday. Yet here, too, lurk two different stories,
subtle, but not quite agreeing. Let's take the SILVER PRICE first. It vaulted
116.5c (3.8%) today to close Comex at 3164.7c. It brushed that 3060c resistance
aside like the Terminator flinging cops right and left, and climbed straight up.
Never sank lower than 3029c today, and at its apogee reached 3191c. Notice, too,
that it closed near the top of that range. Internally more was going on than
just that. SILVER jumped over the hurdle of its 50 DMA (3103c) and o'erleapt and
internal resistance line. Let's just say silver's shirt is full of starch. Gives
me a headache to think about it, looking at the weekly chart: have I missed the
low in silver? Wait, wait, there's also such a thing as a false breakout, and
toward the end of metals' rallies silver always tends to outrun gold. Either
way, Silver's next stubborn resistance hangs in the sky overhead at 3400c. It
could make that leap next week. However, if Monday comes a cropper and silver
loses 200c or so, you'll know it was a false breakout. Otherwise, buy it at the
market. But listen as the GOLD PRICE speaks out of both sides of its mouth. It
closed today up $9.60, higher than yesterday, at $1,663.7, new high close for
the move, but did not today post a new intraday high. High reached only $1,666.
Why didn't gold punch through $1,670 when silver was so manic? I don't know.
Maybe it means nothing, maybe it only means that resistance there is very strong
and gold will play catch-up next week, maybe the NGM take offense and react when
gold reaches $1,670. But look here: if gold pierces that $1,680 next week, and
then works through $1,705, stop waiting and buy. The bottom has passed, a new
rally has started. Dear friends, listen and ponder: the GOLD and SILVER bull
market is yet young. The public has not yet climbed aboard, and only a few
investment professionals. What we have seen so far is pasty, bland cottage
cheese compared to what is coming. Don't be caught standing around trying to
make your mind up, only to watch silver and gold run away. Within the markets
are planted automatic circuit breakers, set to explode Humility Bombs whenever
you begin to believe that you have things figured out. I stepped on those mines
today. What a week! SILVER gained -- look! --- 7.3%, while GOLD moved up only
2%. Dow gained more than gold, 2.4%, platinum augmented 3% (a word for you
engineers out there), and palladium added 5.8%. Dollar index dropped 1.7%, and
probably broke its rally's back. I love kids, but mine were always easy to catch
whenever they were doing something wrong. If I got one alone and asked him what
he had been doing, he said one thing. When another said something else, I knew I
wasn't getting the story whole. It's the same way with markets. When markets
that SHOULD confirm don't, some monkey business is afoot behind the scenes. So
today I ask myself, how could the Dow rise 96.5 points (0.76%) while the broader
S&P500 rose only 0.88 (0.07%)? And when the Dow rose 3/4%, why did the Nasdaq
and Nasdaq-100 DROP? Somebody's story doesn't match here, and when that happens
with markets, the larceny of Nice Government Men pops instantly to mind. I don't
want to become one of those imagination-challenged boors who blames everything
on government intervention, but that doesn't mean they don't intervene. And we
KNOW they have a special group, the President's Working Group on Markets, set up
in the Reagan reign to manipulate the stock market. I suspect they treat the
Dow, the most widely watched stock index, as a kind of Potemkin village for the
economy, a number they try to keep perky so we mushrooms will feel good and not
panic. Anyhow, the Dow (if not the S&P500 or Nasdaq), has penetrated overhead
resistance. If the move is real, then stocks ought to advance smartly, not
dragging feet. We'll see. None of this, lest you conclude otherwise, changes my
long term view of stocks, which are locked in a bear market (primary downtrend).
If it's a rally, this, too, shall pass, and more diving shall follow. Dow today
ended at 12,720.48, up 96.50 or 0.76%. S&P 500 closed 1,315.38, up 0.88 (0.07%).
I bet y'all wonder why I waste good electrons talking about the scrofulous US
dollar index and scabby euro and scurvy yen. Easy: they are the chief
competitors to silver and gold. Their course offers guidance where the metals
are headed, and chronicles the metals' ongoing war of annihilation against all
the phony fiat currencies in the world. Dollar ended the day down only 6.1 basis
points (0.08%) at 80.155, thus capping a week of disaster. Dollar index smashed
through its uptrend line today. That does not guarantee twill proceed lower, as
it did the same for several days early this month and again in December, but
whenever a market breaks a trend line or resistance, the presumption states it
will continue in that direction. Anyway, think about the backdrop. The world's
states are engaged in a very polite war of competitive devaluation, trying to
build their own economies at their neighbor's expense. Everyone smiles and bows
and says they're working together, but back in the office they are figuring out
how to lower their currency's value. Truth is, neither the Bernancubus nor the
White House Toad want an appreciating dollar. Worse, they've had a fight on
their hands as scared money poured out of the euro all summer, headed for refuge
in US treasuries and driving up the dollar. For what technical analysis is worth
under these manipulated circumstances, today the dollar index fell through both
its uptrend line AND the 20 day moving average (80.51). That targets a fall at
least to the 50 DMA (79.39), although some support lingers around 79.70 - 79.85.
Euro today closed lower as traders took profits out of their week, 1.2931, down
0.23%. Yen changed nothing, up 0.11% at 129.83c/Y100 (Y77.03/US$1). Also, I have
learned that altogether y'all know almost everything in the world, so I have a
question. Anybody know where I can find a slightly used 10 - 20 kilowatt PROPANE
generator, a good brand like Kohler? Drop me an email if you do, please. Again I
must confess, I just don't get it. I heard a lady from South Carolina on
National Proletarian Radio (voice of Socialism Worldwide). They are voting in
the meaningless Republican primary for president this weekend, you know, the one
with the Invisible Candidate (R*n P**l). This lady lives in a county with 12%
unemployed, and she said they needed to elect somebody who could help them. I
gasped for air. Doesn't she understand that the government is the REASON we
suffer economic turmoil and instability? Rotten money? With all due respect,
when did anybody from any government ever help anybody? Of the three greatest
lies in the world, the first on the list is, "Hi! I'm from the government, and
I'm here to help you." All government money comes with a sock in the jaw. All
government help comes with ropes, chains, and shackles. I don't get it. Why can
I see this, and somebody from South Carolina (of all places!) not see it? When
are folks going to wake up grasp that the government cavalry is NOT coming, and
you don't want 'em to? If anybody is going to help us, it will have to be US,
and we have to start by re-building our own local economies, working to restore
our neighbor's prosperity as well as our own, building on a sound foundation of
clean local food grown by local people. That's just for starters. I just don't
get it. We're standing on acres of diamonds, and people still want to call in
the government to screw everything up even more than they already have. Y'all
enjoy your weekend! Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must
be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com © 2012,
The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically,
without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the
comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary
trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's
primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend
is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or
US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst,
primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use
these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or
write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term
investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing
service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange
Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or
another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me
paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading
futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not
for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or
with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your
own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

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