Charts Say It’s Time to Sell

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tdp2664 InvestorPlace Yesterday's triple-digit advance by the Dow Jones Industrial Average was again the result of a focus onEurope. And whether here or there, the story is that you just can't fight central banks when they decide to flood their systems with U.S. dollars. On this side of the pond, weekly jobless claims rose above expectations and regional manufacturing missed the mark (Empire State Manufacturing Survey for September fell to -8.8 instead of -4). And there was a flurry of other reports, but they had little impact on a market that is focused onGreece,Italyand the ECB's every effort to save them from defaulting on their debt. For the fourth consecutive day stocks moved higher, completing a run of 4.3% from Monday's close, and a Collins-Bollinger Reversal (CBR) buy signal, to Thursday's close. Traders who took leveraged ETF positions on Monday's buy signal should consider cashing in. And it would be prudent for traders to close all other long positions this morning. It is possible that stocks could make a further run through the neckline at Nasdaq 2,602 and the 50-day moving average at 2,612. But an overbought MACD, and the vagaries of a triple-witching day argue against holding long positions in a bear market within an incomplete bear flag formation. Finally, the bounce from the August low to last night's close is a 50% retracement of the fall from the July 7 high to the Aug. 9 low — a Fibonacci number. After breaking from major resistance at a triple-top and its 200-day moving average, the U.S. dollar pulled back closing the first of two open breakaway gaps. The dramatic breakout confirms a double-bottom for the buck, but there is no guarantee of an immediate follow through since patterns of this type often take weeks or months to develop.

Swiss Stocks Look as Sweet as Chocolate Thanks to Franc Move

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tdp2664 InvestorPlace Last week, the Swiss National Bank announced it would peg its franc to the euro at a conversion rate of 1.2. The Swiss franc reacted immediately to the downside, shedding 10% against the U.S. dollar and crushing one of the most widely held longs by hedge funds. Your opportunity as an investor right now is to focus on the handful of Swiss companies that are big exporters, who do business abroad and will benefit from favorable currency exchange rates against the weak franc. Those stocks could include ABB Inc. (NYSE: ABB ), Logitech ( NASDAQ : LOGI ) and Novartis (NYSE: NVS ), to name a few. The move with the Swiss franc came in response to fund managers who drove the franc to all-time highs in early August, seriously damaging the country’s exports, as well as its domestic economy. The Swiss National Bank found itself backed into a corner, but nonetheless, its action marked a bold move, especially from a nation that has a history of taking action piecemeal and not with a sledgehammer. The act of tying the franc to the euro means Switzerland is no longer immune to the ills of European sovereign debt and, therefore, does not provide the safe haven that has escaped the PIIGS nations’ woes. That is, the euro zone constituents Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. Not knowing how low the euro can go, one can only speculate that the Swiss franc may trade at parity with the dollar in the next year. That’s assuming Europe’s fiscal mess gets a bit messier, which is not out of the question. My take on the euro is that it is trading at an artificially high level, fully supported by ECB open market purchases. Instead, I'd posit that the euro ought to be trading at 1.2 and ultimately will do so at some point in the not-too-distant future. Europe is on the verge of negative growth, and slapping a number of new austerity measures on what already are fragile economies is bad news for the euro. The one-year chart of the Swiss franc (below) illustrates the extreme with which it rallied as interest rates soared in Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain this time last month, before austerity programs were voted through, but have yet to be implemented. A lot still can go wrong with the euro zone, and the value of the euro could well descend from the current 1.4 level if the ECB fails to get full cooperation from member nations involved in resolving the sovereign debt crisis. Why the Swiss would chain their currency to the euro at a time when it could see a big move lower in the weeks ahead is a real head-scratcher. But from the chart above, the franc is trading back down to May levels and most certainly will help the export industry, as exchange rates have vastly improved. My guess is that Swiss bankers are betting on a lower euro so as to further improve foreign currency exchange rates. Even at its now lower level, the franc still is very high on a historical basis. At some point, if the euro starts to unwind, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see the Swiss National Bank un-peg the franc and let it free float again. But let’s assume that the Swiss bank decides to let the franc decline so as to juice up exports. In that case, it would be a lucrative move to buy into one or two Swiss-based blue-chip companies that do 90% of their business outside the country and have a strong exposure to emerging markets. Given the backdrop of investor sentiment that is fearful of a global slowdown, I would view consumer staples as a way to play this export scenario that has just gotten a shot in the arm, via devaluation of the franc. Oddly enough, most Swiss equities sold off on the news, which probably stems from fund managers running international portfolios who then dumped their Swiss holdings after it became joined at the hip with the future direction of the euro. The selling pressure witnessed this week in Swiss stocks makes for some very compelling buys that fit right in with the “new normal” landscape — a.k.a. growth coupled with austerity. Well, the Swiss already live an austere lifestyle, and the sudden decline in the value of the franc is sure to boost the bottom line of the country’s leading exporters. So it soon might be a good time to get in on stocks with exposure to non-cyclical businesses that are global leaders in their respective market sectors. And it makes a lot of sense to do so while these stocks are on sale. From a total return basis, it’s about as tasty as a Toblerone. Bryan Perry is the editor of the Cash Machine dividend stock newsletter.

Gold & Silver Prices – Daily Outlook September 16

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DG365FD46564GFH654FU898 Gold and silver prices suffered a sharp drop yesterday and thus completed 4.2% and 5.1% deceases, respectively from the end of last week. The recent announcement of ECB along with the Fed to issue US dollar based loans to European Banks may have helped restore some confidence in the European market and consequently rallied up the Euro against the US dollar. This news also eclipsed the negative results of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index . The declines in precious metals prices coincided with the recent rally of US stock markets and the rise in US Treasury bills yields. Today, US TIC long term purchases will also be published. Let’s examine the precious metals market for today, September 16th: Gold and silver prices –September Gold and silver prices sharply declined yesterday: Gold price fell on Thursday by 2.47% to $1,781; silver price also declined by 2.55% to $39.50. During September, gold price declined by 2.7% while silver price fell by 5.4%. The chart below (normalized gold and silver prices (August 31st 2011=100)) shows the price development of precious metals during September. The ratio between gold and silver prices stats to slowly pick up in recent days; on Thursday, September 15th the

Learn more about the Chinese geological industry’s impact on global mining sector.

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min2664 Mr. Jionghui Wang, Assistant President of one of the leading metals and mining corporations globally shared with the delegation at the Central Asia Mining Congress his opinion on the worldwide exploration market. Mr. Wang is currently the Assistant President of China Minmetals Corporation and the President of Minmetals Exploration and Development Co.,Ltd. In the past few years, Mr. Wang has successfully led several large-scale exploration projects, which attract extensive attention from both domestically and abroad ( e.g. Nihe Iron Mine project in Anhui Province, Songxian Gold and Molybdenum Project in Henan Province, Coking Coal Project in Qinghai Jiangcang, and Shi Donggou Silver Polymetallic Project in Gansu Province. In his presentation at the Central Asia Mining Congress , Mr. Wang brought up the importance of the resource demand in China & the further strategy, highlighting the following: • In the next decades, China has to face up to the severe resource demand occurred in the industrialization and urbanization. • Confronted with the challenge, China is implementing the leap forward strategy, and creates more key breakthroughs as far as possible. • During this course, China exploration workforce will play leading role and undertake the important responsibility to guarantee the resource supply. Want to learn more about the Chinese geological industry's impact on global mining sector? Download his full presentation slides here. Join us at the Central Asia Mining Congress 2012 and find out more about the further development of the global as well as the Central Asian mining sector. Register now!

6 Under-the-Radar Charts to Watch

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tdp2664 InvestorPlace As anyone who is involved in the markets is undoubtedly aware, it's a tough time to find compelling ideas. Sure, any number of stocks look undervalued right now, but how can you pull the trigger on a buy order when any morning might bring a new chapter in the European crisis? The result is that correlations have moved near record highs , and finding charts that don't mirror the S&P 500 is a tall order. There are, however, a few charts that are notable for their divergence from the stock market 's performance and their importance as indicators of both sentiment and the global economic outlook. Below are six to put on your watch list and monitor closely for signs of a breakdown. The direction of these securities could provide a clue as to the next move for the broader global financial markets. Emerging Markets First up are the charts of two key emerging-market segments: Brazil and Chinese real estate. The Brazilian stock market has long been a leading indicator for astute investors, and it is all the more important today given the importance of the emerging-markets economies to the global growth outlook. Significantly, the iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund ETF (NYSE: EWZ ) is perched right on long-term support near the $60 level. Below lies a technical no-man's land that could provide the fuel for a more serious selloff if the EWZ can't hold its ground here: Perhaps even more important is the technical status of a lesser-known exchange-traded fund called the Guggenheim China Real Estate ETF (NYSE: TAO ). According to etftrends.com, the fund "tries to reflect the performance of the AlphaShares China Real Estate Index , which holds publicly traded companies and real estate investment trusts (REITs) that generate a majority of their revenues from real estate development, management and/or ownership of property in China, Hong Kong and Macau." While the ETF itself is small, with under $30 million in assets and a daily average trading volume of only about 38,000 shares, one could argue that the sector it represents is one of the most important to the global economy. China's real estate market is generally seen as being in a bubble, and the bursting of that bubble would have serious ramifications for the rest of the world. That's why investors need to watch this ETF for a breakdown below its support level at $15. As is the case with EWZ, the last volume below this support was registered more than two years ago.

Swiss Stocks Look as Sweet as Chocolate Thanks to Franc Move

Last week, the Swiss National Bank announced it would peg its franc to the euro
at a conversion rate of 1.2. The Swiss franc reacted immediately to the
downside, shedding 10% against the U.S. dollar and crushing one of the most
widely held longs by hedge funds. Your opportunity as an investor right now is
to focus on the handful of Swiss companies that are big exporters, who do
business abroad and will benefit from favorable currency exchange rates against
the weak franc. Those stocks could include ABB Inc. (NYSE: ABB ), Logitech
(NASDAQ: LOGI ) and Novartis (NYSE: NVS ), to name a few. The move with the
Swiss franc came in response to fund managers who drove the franc to all-time
highs in early August, seriously damaging the countrys exports, as well as its
domestic economy. The Swiss National Bank found itself backed into a corner, but
nonetheless, its action marked a bold move, especially from a nation that has a
history of taking action piecemeal and not with a sledgehammer. The act of tying
the franc to the euro means Switzerland is no longer immune to the ills of
European sovereign debt and, therefore, does not provide the safe haven that has
escaped the PIIGS nations woes. That is, the euro zone constituents Portugal,
Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. Not knowing how low the euro can go, one can
only speculate that the Swiss franc may trade at parity with the dollar in the
next year. Thats assuming Europes fiscal mess gets a bit messier, which is not
out of the question. My take on the euro is that it is trading at an
artificially high level, fully supported by ECB open market purchases. Instead,
I'd posit that the euro ought to be trading at 1.2 and ultimately will do so
at some point in the not-too-distant future. Europe is on the verge of negative
growth, and slapping a number of new austerity measures on what already are
fragile economies is bad news for the euro. The one-year chart of the Swiss
franc (below) illustrates the extreme with which it rallied as interest rates
soared in Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain this time last month,
before austerity programs were voted through, but have yet to be implemented. A
lot still can go wrong with the euro zone, and the value of the euro could well
descend from the current 1.4 level if the ECB fails to get full cooperation from
member nations involved in resolving the sovereign debt crisis. Why the Swiss
would chain their currency to the euro at a time when it could see a big move
lower in the weeks ahead is a real head-scratcher. But from the chart above, the
franc is trading back down to May levels and most certainly will help the export
industry, as exchange rates have vastly improved. My guess is that Swiss bankers
are betting on a lower euro so as to further improve foreign currency exchange
rates. Even at its now lower level, the franc still is very high on a historical
basis. At some point, if the euro starts to unwind, it wouldnt surprise me in
the least to see the Swiss National Bank un-peg the franc and let it free float
again. But lets assume that the Swiss bank decides to let the franc decline so
as to juice up exports. In that case, it would be a lucrative move to buy into
one or two Swiss-based blue-chip companies that do 90% of their business outside
the country and have a strong exposure to emerging markets. Given the backdrop
of investor sentiment that is fearful of a global slowdown, I would view
consumer staples as a way to play this export scenario that has just gotten a
shot in the arm, via devaluation of the franc. Oddly enough, most Swiss equities
sold off on the news, which probably stems from fund managers running
international portfolios who then dumped their Swiss holdings after it became
joined at the hip with the future direction of the euro. The selling pressure
witnessed this week in Swiss stocks makes for some very compelling buys that fit
right in with the new normal landscape a.k.a. growth coupled with austerity.
Well, the Swiss already live an austere lifestyle, and the sudden decline in the
value of the franc is sure to boost the bottom line of the countrys leading
exporters. So it soon might be a good time to get in on stocks with exposure to
non-cyclical businesses that are global leaders in their respective market
sectors. And it makes a lot of sense to do so while these stocks are on sale.
From a total return basis, its about as tasty as a Toblerone. Bryan Perry is the
editor of the Cash Machine dividend stock newsletter.

Learn more about the Chinese geological industry’s impact on global mining sector.

Mr. Jionghui Wang, Assistant President of one of the leading metals and mining
corporations globally shared with the delegation at the Central Asia Mining
Congress his opinion on the worldwide exploration market. Mr. Wang is currently
the Assistant President of China Minmetals Corporation and the President of
Minmetals Exploration and Development Co.,Ltd. In the past few years, Mr. Wang
has successfully led several large-scale exploration projects, which attract
extensive attention from both domestically and abroad ( e.g. Nihe Iron Mine
project in Anhui Province, Songxian Gold and Molybdenum Project in Henan
Province, Coking Coal Project in Qinghai Jiangcang, and Shi Donggou Silver
Polymetallic Project in Gansu Province. In his presentation at the Central Asia
Mining Congress , Mr. Wang brought up the importance of the resource demand in
China & the further strategy, highlighting the following: • In the next
decades, China has to face up to the severe resource demand occurred in the
industrialization and urbanization. • Confronted with the challenge, China is
implementing the leap forward strategy, and creates more key breakthroughs as
far as possible. • During this course, China exploration workforce will play
leading role and undertake the important responsibility to guarantee the
resource supply. Want to learn more about the Chinese geological industry's
impact on global mining sector? Download his full presentation slides here. Join
us at the Central Asia Mining Congress 2012 and find out more about the further
development of the global as well as the Central Asian mining sector. Register
now!