Thursday, March 8, 2012

The Gold Price Would have to Close Above $1,715 to Complete Correction

Gold Price Close Today : 1698.10 Change : 14.80 or 0.88% Silver Price Close
Today : 3378.90 Change : 24.6 cents or 0.73% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 50.256
Change : 0.073 or 0.14% Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01990 Change : -0.000029 or
-0.14% Platinum Price Close Today : 1663.00 Change : 28.75 or 1.76% Palladium
Price Close Today : 708.00 Change : 19.50 or 2.83% S&P 500 : 1,365.91 Change :
13.28 or 0.98% Dow In GOLD$ : $157.13 Change : $ (0.50) or -0.32% Dow in GOLD oz
: 7.601 Change : -0.024 or -0.32% Dow in SILVER oz : 382.02 Change : -0.70 or
-0.18% Dow Industrial : 12,907.94 Change : 70.61 or 0.55% US Dollar Index :
79.23 Change : -0.485 or -0.61% GOLD PRICE pushed nearly to the crucial
resistance at $1,705 with a $1,703.80 high today. Closed below the $1,700 at
$1,698.10 on Comex, up $14.80. Even if the GOLD PRICE climbs to $1,715 it won't
convince me that it has completed its correction. Nope, it would have to close
ABOVE $1,715, maybe $1,725. SILVER PRICE didn't gain as much as gold today, so
the GOLD/SILVER RATIO rose from 50.183 to 50.256. That non-confirmation itself
jaundices the eye. Silver added 24.6c to close Comex at 3378.9c. It bounced to
3415c, but resistance at that height wrestled silver back down to that 3378.9.
Above 3400c more resistance awaits, stoutly armed, at 3450c. What if I am wrong?
Well, in that alternate universe silver has only corrected back down to and
slightly violated that down trend line it broke through in mid-March, and day
before yesterday's low just above the 50 DMA played out the oft-seen touchback
("Final Kiss Good-bye") that proves the breakout. Possible, but I can't get into
that universe from here. The chart and my suspicion are jamming my
de-materializer. Unlike some folks, I don't mind saying "I told y'all so"
especially when it concerns rotten parasites in banking and government. CNBC on
6 March reported "Huge Spike in Repeat Foreclosures." "Thousands of foreclosures
that were stuck in process due to delays over the so-called 'Robo-signing'
paperwork scandal are working their way through a revamped banking system and
heading toward final bank repossession." When the state attorneys general
announced their big compact with the big banks about robo-signing, which the
banks signed so they could re-create mortgage documents they lacked for
foreclosure, I told y'all that it was a deal of, by, and for the banks. They
gave up a piddling $2,000 a head to those they had wronged, and in return got
government- encouraged rewriting of mortgages to perfect their bad title. Thus
were the mortgagees lured to their doom. Foreclosure surged 28% in January. Only
one question remains, Were the attorneys general snookered, or corrupted? Odd,
odd, 5 day gold and Dow charts share a resemblance, so I reckon I am going to
have to tell y'all to listen to what I mean, not what I say. Yesterday I made
much of stocks' and gold's and silver's failure to rise above their breakdown
points as proof they were in trouble, but today they rose into those areas. Does
that disprove my argument? Not in my view. Markets can ease up into that area
where they broke down, and still follow through downside. They can even keep on
rising above the breakdown, and leave behind a deadly double top, an even surer
sign that they will drop more. Okay, so interpreting a chart is an art. When I
paint y'all a picture, I don't always have time to tell you how to wash out the
brush. Start with stocks. On a five day chart they today rose through the 12,850
area I mentioned yesterday. Dow added 70.61 points to close 12,907.94 (0.55%).
That's still below the breakdown at 12,950 (exactly), and might become only a
double top by reaching for 13,000. Why would I look for a double top? Context.
Background. This break and recovery is played out against an aging (since 1
October 2011) rally, that (2) built into a large, VERY bearish rising wedge. It
asketh a whole lot to expect a market that long growing overbought to extend a
rally. Add (3), the Dow today closed below its 20 day moving average
(12,915.74). Any way you cut it, it's over for the Dow for a while. S&P500
tagged along, rising 0.98% (13.28) to 1,365.91. Y'all watch: truth is the
daughter of time. The US DOLLAR INDEX lengthened its correction by dropping a
meaty 48.5 basis points (0.62%) to 79.227. Dropping below 79.30 was sloppy, and
a low at 79.163 looks positively slovenly. But what is the dollar trying to
protect? Really just that 79.00 psychological support and the 20 DMA (79.06). It
will probably hold and the dollar will resume advancing. What goosed stocks
today and the euro with them? The deadline for the elusive Greek Debt Deal
passed with a "majority" of investors signing on. Thus the world waxes again
optimistic, until the Deal comes unglued again, as 'twill, and soon. Euro gained
0.92% (big for a currency) to 1.3270. Here's another reason why I wouldn't trade
currencies even with your money, because this reaction is wholly irrational.
BWDIK? Not a single currency in the world is worth backed by as much as a bus
token. The wave of schizo-optimism pushed traders out of the yen today. It
dropped 0.58% to 122.62c/Y100 (Y81.55/US$1). Looks looney. Two gappy reversals
in three days. Help. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver
must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com ©
2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including
electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please
remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest
with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least
$3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66;
stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one
ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate
bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and
warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend
them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them
for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not
as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver
Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one
or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me
paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading
futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not
for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or
with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your
own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

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