Thursday, January 5, 2012

Gold Price Nearly Hit 200 Day Moving Average ($1,627) a Usual Place to Fall in a Not-Yet-Completed Downward Correction

Gold Price Close Today : 1619.40 Change : 7.50 or 0.5% Silver Price Close Today
: 2926.50 Change : 20.20 cents or 0.7% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.336 Change :
-0.127 or -0.2% Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01807 Change : 0.000041 or 0.2%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1412.90 Change : -5.10 or -0.4% Palladium Price
Close Today : 638.70 Change : -28.55 or -4.3% S&P 500 : 1,281.06 Change : 3.76
or 0.3% Dow In GOLD$ : $158.49 Change : $ (0.76) or -0.5% Dow in GOLD oz : 7.667
Change : -0.037 or -0.5% Dow in SILVER oz : 424.25 Change : -3.04 or -0.7% Dow
Industrial : 12,415.70 Change : -2.72 or 0.0% US Dollar Index : 80.91 Change :
0.782 or 1.0% The GOLD PRICE and the SILVER PRICE both rose today, but with much
subdued enthusiasm. Gold closed Comex $7.50 higher at $1,619.40. Silver added
20.2c to 2926.5c. No significant advance here, just hanging on. The GOLD PRICE
five day chart has widened out its swings and today posted what might be a
double top at $1,625. Now the way of life is that you either advance or fall
back, grow or die, unless you are a lichen or a rock under a lichen. If gold
cannot pierce $1,625, then 'twill fall back to prove at $1,600 exactly how
strong it is. Today GOLD nearly hit its 200 day moving average ($1,627) which
would be a usual place to limit an upmove in a not-yet-completed downward
correction. Y'all are probably scratching your heads and wondering why in the
world a fellow who is so sure silver and gold will be higher this time next year
and three to five or more times higher in the next 3 - 10 years would croak so
about tomorrow's outlook? Well, 'cause that's what the chart shows, and arguing
with a chart is like arguing with a road sign: makes you feel good, but doesn't
get you anywhere you want to go. Interpretation is crucial here, because it will
tell us whether we see a low lower than $1,524, or whether gold has now put all
that trifling behind its back and turned its face to the sun. The SILVER PRICE
appears more tired than gold. It has been beating its head against a solid wall
of resistance above 2960c, without success. Today silver dropped as low as
2874.5, a little lower than yesterday, which was a little lower than Tuesday.
Highs also have been successively lower. And I have just described what? Sounds
like a downtrend. To gainsay that outlook silver must beat its way through 2960c
and close higher. Patience, patience. I'd rather exercise a little patience here
and maybe buy a little higher than buy and watch it sink to a final bottom.
Today the US dollar index cashed that check it wrote yesterday. Rose 78.2 basis
points (1.01%, giant move) to $80.911, nearly reaching yesterday's 81.10 target.
High struck 81.016. Once the buck worms its way past that 81.00 turnstile, it
will run fast for 81.50. What the dollar won, the euro lost. It fell 1.22% to
close at 1.2787, face still firmly set on 1.2000 or less. How can I be so sure?
Yesterday the euro gapped down, then today gapped down again, closing way below
the last low. Down, down, down. Somebody slapped the yen today, knocking it
below the lower channel boundary established August thru October. Fell 0.51% to
129.69c/Y100 (Y77.10/$1). Hope of higher yen died today. Stocks were a mess
today. Nasdaq and Nasdaq-100 rose slightly, as did the S&P500, but the Dow and
other sank, evidencing great confusion and faltering confidence. Today's Dow
chart pictures precisely running out of gas (see chart at www.nasdaq.com) and
sputtering to a halt. Dow fell 2.72 (0.02%) to 12,415.70, while the S&P500 rose
0.29% (3.76) to 1,281.06. Today the Dow sank as low as 12,283, crossing the
perilous and deadly 12,300 line. Last three days (as well as today's chart) look
like and empty jet fuel tank at 20,000 feet. Dow must breach 12,500 or drop into
free fall. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be
bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com © 2012, The
Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically,
without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the
comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary
trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's
primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend
is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or
US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst,
primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use
these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or
write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term
investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing
service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange
Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or
another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me
paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading
futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not
for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or
with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your
own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

No comments:

Post a Comment

LinkWithin

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...