Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Emerging Market Plays That Soared, or Not, in 2011

My emerging markets investments were a mixed bag last year. My biggest success
came from Visa (NYSE: V ), ending the year up over 44%. I loved Visa when I
recommended it, and I continue to love it now, even at current prices. But I
should be very clear that I do not expect another year of 44% returns. Yes, Visa
is still at the crossroads of two powerful macro trends the rise of the
emerging market consumer and the shift toward a global cashless economy and
these are trends I see persisting for years to come. But 2011 was unique in that
the stock had been depressed by political risk stemming from the Durbin
Amendment to the Dodd-Frank financial reform package. When the cloud of
uncertainty was lifted, Visa and rival MasterCard (NYSE: MA ) both enjoyed
monster rallies. That kind of political risk simply doesnt exist right now.
Still, I do expect Visa to outperform the S&P in the years ahead. On a side
note, my Visa recommendation was the winning pick in InvestorPlace's 10 Stocks
for 2011 contest (Read about my follow-up pick for 2012 , and check out the rest
of the " 10 Best Stocks for 2012 "). Unilever (NYSE: UL ) has also quietly
generated good returns for me. It ended the year up a solid 8%, and its total
return since I recommended it in December of 2010 is a not-too shabby 16%.
Unilever already gets more than half of its revenues from emerging markets and
pays a great dividend. This is one I recommend holding for the remainder of the
decade. Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL ) is another stock that has quietly put out
decent returns. The stock ended the year up almost 15% and 21% in total returns
since I recommended it in November of 2010. This is another company that is far
from sexy it sells soap and toothpaste but its precisely the right kind of
stock to own in a choppy, trendless market. DirecTV (NASDAQ: DTV ) has done
relatively well. The stock ended the year up 7%, which isn't bad considering
the abuse the markets have taken over the past year. Warren Buffett made a
splash when he announced that Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B ) had taken a
large position in DirecTV, and I continue to like the company as a backdoor way
to get access to the rising middle classes of Latin America. Hold on to this
one. Busts Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG ) was a roller-coaster stock in 2011 that
almost ended flat until it squeaked out major gains in late December, making for
a yearly return of 3.7%. This isnt a huge bust, but if not for managing a
respectable 16% total return since I recommended this stock in July of 2010 I
would call PG a disappointment. Like the other dividend-paying consumer products
companies, I continue to like P&G and recommend holding it for another quarter
or more. It pays a reliable dividend, which matters in a market like this.
Nestle (PINK: NSRGY ) has also been a bit of a disappointment after taking a
beating due to the Swiss franc's fluctuations and due to volatility spilling
over from the euro zone. Still, Nestle is one of the finest companies in the
world, pays a great dividend and has exposure to emerging markets that goes back
decades. This is one stock I recommend you hold on to for a while. Finally, my
broad play on the rise of the emerging market consumer the

No comments:

Post a Comment

LinkWithin

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...