Thursday, December 29, 2011

Google+: Gunning for Facebook

Facebook never has lacked for ambition. Consider that the companys founder,
Mark Zuckerberg, has explicitly said he wants Facebook be a blue-chip firm you
know, a business on par with Proctor & Gamble (NYSE: PG ) or Coke (NYSE: KO ).
With more than 800 million active users which likely will reach 1 billion soon
Facebook already is a mega-brand. According to the buzz, its IPO is expected to
raise $10 billion at a valuation of more than $100 billion. Not P&G or Coke
market cap, but bigger than other Dow members like 3M (NYSE: MMM , $57 billion)
and United Technologies (NYSE: UTX , $66 billion). But in the social networking
world, Internet users are fickle and the competitive landscape can change
quickly. If you remember, Facebook was once the underdog. Yet it ultimately was
able to kick aside Friendster and dethrone MySpace. Now the competition is
knocking on Facebooks door. For example, Twitter recently introduced new
features that make it even easier for its users to share their thoughts. The
company also struck a key deal to integrate within Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL ) iOS
platform. And Twitter has the resources to compete with Facebook so far this
year, the company has raised more than $1 billion, including a recent $300
million investment from Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal . Despite this, Twitter
still has its challenges. Do users really see it as a place to hang out with
their friends? Not really. For the most part, Twitter is a place for news and
celebrity happenings. Instead, it looks like Google 's (NASDAQ: GOOG ) social
network, Google+, is the most viable alternative to Facebook. According to Paul
Allen an Internet traffic expert and the founder of Ancestry.com (NASDAQ: ACOM
) the service has reached 62 million registered users. About 15 million came on
board during December alone. Google has launched an aggressive national
television advertising campaign, including commercials featuring the Muppets, as
well as National Basketball Association stars. They highlight Google+'s cool
Hangouts capability, which allows for video chat. Based on current trends, Allen
believes the social network could reach 400 million users by the end of 2012. If
this happens, Google+ will be the world's No. 2 player in the space. However,
one issue is engagement. Are Google+ users doing much on the network? The
problem is, while total user numbers are available, details on activity are
scarce. But engagement takes time and likely will improve as the user count
continues to grow, as was the case with Facebook. Google+ has another
interesting advantage: Googles Android mobile operating system. During the
Christmas weekend, there were a staggering 3.7 million activations. This
compares to a daily average of 700,000 (which still is substantial). Besides
being a new way to snag users for Google+, Android also might help improve
engagement probably from an explosion of photo-sharing, among other features.
It's no secret that Google CEO Larry Page has indicated Google+ is the main
priority for the company it's a must-win that cannot afford to lose marketing
dollars to Facebook. So far, it looks like Google is a worthy competitor and
perhaps even a serious threat. Tom Taulli runs the InvestorPlace blog
IPOPlaybook , a site dedicated to the hottest news and rumors about initial
public offerings. He also is the author of "All About Short Selling" and
"All About Commodities." Follow him on Twitter at @ttaulli . As of this
writing, he did not own a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

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