Gold Price Close Today : 1719.80 Change : (54.00) or -3.0% Silver Price Close
Today : 3149.3 Change : (232.1) cents or -6.9% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.609
Change : 2.151 or 4.1% Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01831 Change : -0.000751 or
-3.9% Platinum Price Close Today : 1583.70 Change : -47.10 or -2.9% Palladium
Price Close Today : 608.50 Change : -44.75 or -6.9% S&P 500 : 1,216.13 Change :
-11.11 or -0.9% Dow In GOLD$ : $141.48 Change : $ 2.75 or 2.0% Dow in GOLD oz :
6.844 Change : 0.133 or 2.0% Dow in SILVER oz : 373.76 Change : 21.67 or 6.2%
Dow Industrial : 11,770.73 Change : -134.86 or -1.1% US Dollar Index : 78.30
Change : 0.279 or 0.4% The GOLD PRICE dropped through $1,755 at 7:00 A.M. New
York time, and fell clean to $1,740, where it held on manfully until the NY
market opened. It dipped, climbed over $1,740, but once it went below again,
never recovered. About 12:00 it sank quickly to $1,711.92. GOLD PRICE dropped
$54 today, 3%, to close $1,719.80. Gold has now smashed support at $1,750, and
sunk nearly to $1,705 support. Lest you lash me, I warned y'all on Monday that
if gold broke $1,775 it could drop $75 - $100. I've been waiting and waiting for
this, ever since September -- this final leg of gold's down move. I have not a
clue whether it will stop at $1,675, $1,535-1,550, or drop to $1,460. Between
here and there stands an uptrend at about $1,675 today, and there's a good
chance it might catch there. And it's mere wild speculation on my part, but if I
were in charge of the NGM facing a 9-month pregnant financial crisis in Europe,
I'd be slapping both the dollar and gold for all I was worth. Bottom line of
this meditation is: buy gold. Don't fool around and get greedy, trying to
squeeze out a few dollars. Buy some at $1,705, buy more at $1,680, and if it
falls more, keep on averaging down. What's the logic? You are watching right now
the LAST bargain basement gold decline, in the midst of an unfolding world wide
financial and monetary crisis. Nothing is being done to ward off that crisis,
the debt cannot be paid but the banks own the governments so governments keep
bailing them out, and at last it will all blow up, taking all the world's phony
fiat currencies with it. Only thing left standing will be gold, silver, and
productive assets. You are watching an epochal watershed, so don't sit there on
your hands and end up having to tell your grandchildren, "You know, I could have
bought gold back when it was $1,720, but I was too timid and trusted the dollar
too much." NOTE HERE FOR SWAPPERS: If you swapped silver for gold in the spring
at any GOLD SILVER RATIO of 42 or lower, you can gain almost 30% in silver
ounces by swapping back into gold now with the ratio above 54.5. This does not
apply to swappers waiting for a 57.5:1 ratio -- those may abide patiently still.
The SILVER PRICE lost 232.1c or 6.9% to close at 3149.3c. Real killer came for
silver when it fell below 3350c. slipped and slid from there to 3250c, then dead
at noon dove for the bottom, hitting 3088c. Thereafter it bobbed up, driven by
short covering no doubt. Tis now trading at 3167c, and respectable crowds of
buyers came in, driving up the premium on US 90% some. Future for SILVER is not
even as clear as that for GOLD , because she is so much more volatile than gold.
This much is clear. Silver broke down through its uptrend line, and fell roughly
from 3400 to 3100c. 3200c is smashed, so 3000c is the next support. Sure, it's
possible silver could trade back to 2000c, but I don't think it will. 2800c
maybe, even 2600c, but I can't see it lower. As with GOLD , we have been waiting
for this last "wash out the last of the weak hands" drop so if you don't take
advantage of it, it's your fault. Yep, I know the smarmy saying about not trying
to catch a falling knife, but these SILVER plunges take place so fast, and
rebound so quickly, that knife comment awes me not. If you had bought silver on
the last such plunge, at 2615c, you'd be sitting on nice gains today. Yes,
silver will probably drop farther, but there's another saying that applies here:
you snooze, you lose. You delay, it gets away. NOW HEAR THIS: you are watching a
normal and usual correction in an ongoing gold and silver bull market. This bull
has years yet to run, and from here we are not looking for a double, but a
quadruple or better. Everybody who called today -- and a lot of people called
today -- asked the same question, "What happened to gold and silver?" Oddly
enough, I don't know, other than to say that's what technical analysis is all
about, drawing out support and trend lines so that you know that if a market
dips or rises beyond a certain point, it will fall or rise suddenly much
further. I don't pay much mind to all the rumors and speculations. For me, the
chart hides all that information inside itself. But to make y'all happy, I went
and looked, and felt like one of those goofy TV people who always wants a neat
cause and effect to dish up to his naïve audience so they can go to bed
thinking they know what's going on. Fact is, they don't know, and I don't know.
Markets is people, therefore mysterious because humans are mysterious. Women are
even more mysterious, if you're a man. In December I will have been married 44
years, and I still love my wife so much it's embarrassing, but she remains a
mystery to me. Don't ever try to explain mystery. Anyhow, I went and looked for
news stories that might suggest some catalyst (not cause! Inflation and the bank
solvency crisis are the ultimate cause!) for this drop. I looked at the US
dollar index, but it was only up 27.9 basis points, which didn't seem to show
any panicked flight into the dollar. Looked also at the US Treasury not 30 year
yield which would have jumped up (bond would have risen) if bunches of people
were buying bonds as a way to buy dollars. Nope, it sank a little today. And the
euro didn't drop, but was flat. Since stocks, gold, and silver all fell, I
reckon that the panic started in stocks, which were hovering above support at
11,950 already, and once they broke panic infected other markets as well. Break
in stocks came about noon, and in gold and silver, when they violated support
levels. In detail, it looked like this: The Dow had support at 11,900 or so,
dropped through that ans lost 134.86 points (1.13%) to close at 11,770.73.
S&P500 lost 11.11 (1.52%) and closed at 1,216.13. Let me explain: around that
11,900 lay the uptrend line, which was the bottom of an even- sided triangle.
Those equivocal triangles can resolve with a breakout up or down. This one broke
out down. Back away from the chart a little. Look up above where the 200 dma
stands at 11,975. Above, I said. Dow, locked in a BEAR (down) primary market,
traded UP to the 200 day, barely pierced it, then fell back below it. If this
were a Tarzan movie, you would not only hear the drums in the background, you
would not only see the safari bearers throwing away their burdens and running
off into the jungle, you would not only hear the lead bearer tell the
Englishman, "Bad juju, bwana!" but you would also see the bearers disappearing
feet first into the jungle as snares caught their feet and you would see
poisoned arrows whizzing around the Englishman's head. The stock safari is in
big trouble, Tarzan has left the escarpment, and the Wazuzus are closing in,
ready for supper. US dollar index continues to rise. Last two days on the five
day chart bears strongly the suspicious fingerprints of the Nice Government Men,
stopping the market cold at 78.4. They won't be able to hold it there, and once
it breaks thru twill run like a scalded dog. Already today it broke out upside
from an even-sided triangle abuilding since 1 October. If we measure that
triangle and guess that the dollar will move about the height of the triangle
from the point where it breaks out, target works out to 83.12, a price not seen
since August 2010. Euro and the yen were flat today. Yen is trying to rise, euro
is trying to sink beneath the waves to Davy Jones' locker. Argentum et aurum
comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The
Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com © 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be
republished in any form, including electronically, without our express
permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a
very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary
trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1
gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under
2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary
trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND
DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade
futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short
term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals.
Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I
recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT
physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you
can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary
of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper
gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I
recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend?
Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning:
NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.
No comments:
Post a Comment