Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Expect a Quick Fail and Rally

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tdp2664 InvestorPlace Serge Berger is the head trader and investment strategist for The Steady Trader . Sign up for his free weekly newsletter . It wasn't a pretty start to the fourth quarter yesterday as stocks again tumbled. Small caps, transports, financials and energy led the way lower. The Russell 2000 closed down 5.38% on the day, leaving behind a solid break of its recent support zone at 640. The index is now nearing a support area between 580 and 600 that dates back to 2010. That doesn't mean the index must reverse course there, but it does mean that the likelihood of it at least slowing down or bouncing somewhat in that area is high. The S&P 500 yesterday closed below the weakening support line I have highlighted so often in recent weeks. The close marked a new daily closing low for the year right at the crucial 1,100 level. My best guess here is that after hitting such a big level (1,100) that has found itself all over the news, a quick fail and rally is likely. It would be feasible to see a drop below 1,100 to shake out some stops only to then rally back above 1,100 for a little consolidation before at some point failing lower again. Before we can stage a more meaningful rally 1,040 still looks like a good target, but given the current volatility it is a better target area rather than an absolute level to focus on.



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