Sunday, October 23, 2011

Did the Liquidity Trap Cause the Hike in Gold Price?

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DG365FD46564GFH654FU898 I have stumbled upon an interesting article by Paul Krugman, a Nobel laureate in economics; the article offers an explanation for the hike in gold price in the last few years. Krugman, who considers himself a deflationista, i.e. a person who believes the U.S. is currently in a liquidity trap, thinks that the gains in the gold price is another confirmation that we are at a liquidity trap: basically in a liquidity trap people and businesses “sit on their money” and even if the interest rates plunge to zero (and the U.S. interest rate has been at zero for the past couple of years), investors are still reluctant to invest their funds. It’s hard to prove that we are in a liquidity trap because even if the rates are low and economy is slowing down, there is still no evidence of deflation, especially after the recent CPI report showed that the U.S. inflation rate stands at 3.9% in annual terms. But let's not nitpick and accept this analysis. So how this economic situation explains the gains in gold price? According to Krugman, people are holding on to exhaustible resources such as gold and put off the usage of said resources



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