Friday, September 2, 2011

Just Crazy Enough to Work — 5 New Buyers for T-Mobile

We learned this week that Uncle Sam is less than pleased with the AT&T (NYSE: T
) plan to purchase T-Mobile. This changes little for AT&T and Verizon (NYSE: VZ
), of course, since the mobile market already is rapidly becoming a two-horse
race . Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S ) hasn't turned a quarterly profit since early
2007, and T-Mobile has lost some 150,000 subscribers so far in 2011. In fact,
the Justice Department's move to step in will do little to "save"
T-Mobile. In reality, the only thing it will do is ensure someone other than
Verizon or AT&T will wind up purchasing the $39 billion wireless carrier. So who
else is in the market to buy T-Mobile? I have a few suitors in mind though most
would take some accounting acrobatics or gutsy (perhaps crazy) strategic shifts:
Comcast Verizon FiOS and AT&T U-Verse have been beating up cable internet
providers like Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA ). And with the rise of Netflix (NASDAQ:
NFLX ) and other streaming video alternatives, even entrenched leaders like
Comcast are biting their fingernails about how things will look 10 years from
now. The solution is to take the fight to AT&T, Verizon and the mobile carriers
that have started to wear away the Internet service market. Comcast doesn't
have the cash to buy T-Mobile on its own, with "only" $2 billion in cash on
its balance sheet and a hefty $38 billion in debt up significantly from $28
billion a year ago. However, some kind of strategic alliance with other cable
providers could make things interesting. Apple Yes, Wall Street is littered with
inane rumors about what Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) will buy. But it's fun to
speculate about what the creative minds at Apple will do next and the
company's $28 billion in cash and short-term investments gives it plenty to
play with. The addition of T-Mobile would be intriguing, as Apple is all about
owning the entire experience on its devices and its iconic iPhone still is at
the mercy of third-party networks. Anyone who has read tech blogs or customer
message boards about AT&T's network should know that in many respects, the
iPhone became a smash hit in spite of AT&T not delivering stellar support.
T-Mobile could move that service and revenue in house. Of course, Apple doesnt
tend to make big acquisitions and prefers to build things in house … but the
capital expense of a 4G network and the logistics of rolling such service out
seems to make this one of the few cases when it makes more sense to go outside
Silicon Valley for a pre-made solution.

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