Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Markets will Probably Move Sideways Until After Monday - Then Silver and Gold Prices Could Really Jump

Gold Price Close Today : 1828.50 Change : 1.80 or 0.1% Silver Price Close Today
: 41.699 Change : 0.301 or 0.7% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 43.85 Change : -0.275
or -0.6% Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02281 Change : 0.000142 or 0.6% Platinum
Price Close Today : 1847.40 Change : -8.10 or -0.4% Palladium Price Close Today
: 782.90 Change : 0.00 or 0.0% S&P 500 : 1,218.89 Change : 5.97 or 0.5% Dow In
GOLD$ : $131.30 Change : $ 0.49 or 0.4% Dow in GOLD oz : 6.351 Change : 0.024 or
0.4% Dow in SILVER oz : 278.51 Change : -0.73 or -0.3% Dow Industrial :
11,613.53 Change : 53.58 or 0.5% US Dollar Index : 73.98 Change : 0.256 or 0.3%
Glanced over at Platinum and Palladium to see how they're doing. Palladium has
been very strong and looks something like silver. Now above all moving averages
and inertia is higher. Platinum looks more like gold in the past two weeks
(only), and is blocked by $1,850 resistance. If it can clear that, 'twill jump.
Let me refine what I said yesterday: the GOLD PRICE is pounding on the $1,840
ceiling, not $1,850. For the day it rose $1.80 to $1,828.50 on Comex, but the 5
day chart pictures a market stalled at $1,840, floating and bumping against the
ceiling like a kid's helium balloon. Today's low touched $1,811.35, adding more
strength to $1,810 support. So the GOLD PRICE has a range of $1,810 - $1,840,
more narrowly $1,820 - $1,840. Market has gone indecisive here, perhaps in the
lead-up to the Labor Day holiday. My wholesalers tell me retail dealers
yesterday were on balance selling GOLD to them, which is a bit negative.
Normally you would accord great weight to what market insiders -- like retail
dealers -- do, but an awful lot of retail gold dealers are scared money, and
don't do as well as the public. The premium on SILVER US 90% silver coin, on the
other hand, usually offers a reliable hint about silver's direction. When that
premium is dropping slightly, it's neutral or negative. When the premium climbs
suddenly, silver is about to turn up. Right now the "premium" is actually a
discount to the silver value, and a historically large discount at 125c an
ounce. Yet the SILVER PRICE 5 day chart shows silver in an uptrend since last
Friday. Today it rose another 30.1c to close Comex at 4169.9c, battering on the
4200c gate. The SILVER PRICE still must confirm its rise by closing successively
higher, first over 4200c then 4400c. From a longer view, silver has been
trending upward from an intraday low of 3230c on 14 May. With the last two days'
progress, silver must now guard support at 4100c. A close below that casts doubt
on silver's intentions. Markets will probably move sideways until after Monday.
Then silver and gold could really jump. The mighty US DOLLAR index on its shaky
legs managed to creep through 74 today and closed up 21.5 basis points (0.28%).
It remains in the same old trading range of 73.40 - 75.50, and hasn't even
conquered its 20 dma (74.23) yet, but it strengthens morale for it to climb
above 74. Eventually, in the next few months, the dollar will rally -- given it
falleth not below 72.70. The euro (I strive not to gloat) after gapping down
yesterday closed lower today, down 0.48% to 1.4377 and nearly on its 20 dma
(1.4352). In spite of all the Nice Government Men and all the genius central
bankers huffing, puffing, and blowing together with all their itty-might, the
euro will do well not to fall to the center of the earth. Unless it can clear
1.4550 followed quickly by 1.4700, it will visit 1.2000. With the yen the
Japanese NGM must feel like they are trying to hold a basketball underwater.
Rose again today to 130.54c/Y100 (Y76.60/$). Surely they must act soon to bring
it down. Stocks rose again today. Dow clumb 53.58 (0.46%) to 11,613.53 while the
S&P500 paced alongside, up 5.97 (0.49%) at 1,218.89. Stocks have now risen for
the last four days after Key Reversing last Friday. We are not amused,
impressed, or tempted to buy stocks. We wonder also why the yield is rising on
the US 10 year Treasury note and the 30 year bond. The Fed's interest rate
manipulations, after all, are applied to the Federal Funds rate, the overnight
rate it charges banks for borrowing. But the Fed setteth not interest rates; in
the final analysis, the MARKET setteth those rates. And when the market decides
that US debt paper is too expensive,they pay less and the interest rate rises.
Last I heard, rising interest rates are popularly (but wrongly) perceived as
death to the stock market. BWDIK -- But What Do I Know? Stocks -- they are the
strains of the Charleston wafting through the Museum of Investment Music. Martin
Armstrong made an interesting comment in his last newsletter that made a sort of
kink in my mind. From the yankee government's Greenback Act of 1862 forward, the
banking cartel was allowed to count US government bonds as reserves. But bonds
are -- debt! And how can debt be a reserve against cash that you owe depositors,
in the same class with gold coin? Just never had seen it quite this way before.
This was an earlier form of pyramiding, where they borrowed money into existence
with government debt, then pyramided on that by making it the backing for more
bank credit issues. Wow. It's like sitting in a tub, then pulling yourself up
into the sky by tugging on the handles. Ain't banking great? On 31 August 1521
Cortes captured the city of Tenochtitlan, the Aztec capital, and burned it. I
understand that a multitude of bleeding hearts today condemn Cortes, without
ever bothering to ask how a couple of thousand Spaniards could overthrow a
military empire of eleven million. Simple: they had native allies. The nations
subject to the Aztecs fought with the Spanish to throw off their yoke. The yoke
consisted of having to furnish thousands of human sacrifices yearly for the
Aztec temples. At one temple a Spaniard counted over 100,000 skulls in a skull
rack. The Aztec priests threw the victim onto an altar face up, sliced open the
chest with an obsidian knife then cut out the still beating heart. Bodies were
kicked down the pyramid and beheaded. Often the victims were skinned and the
priests wore the skins and ate the victims. Now me, if I had been one of those
subject peoples, I would have joined with the Spaniards or anybody else short of
the devil himself to get rid of the Aztecs, and I wouldn't have mourned 'em when
they were gone. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be
bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com © 2011, The
Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically,
without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the
comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary
trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's
primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend
is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or
US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary
trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask,
"Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't. Be advised and
warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend
them for that or write them with that outlook. I write them for long-term
investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing
service for futures.

No comments:

Post a Comment

LinkWithin

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...