Monday, August 22, 2011

The Investing Tightrope: Can’t Relax, Can’t Freak Out

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tdp2664 InvestorPlace Investors can run, but they can't hide from the volatile stock markets. Most people simply can’t retire without some exposure to the stock market in general. The now and the future for these investors, however, is not entirely bleak. First of all, not everyone is panicking. Corporate insiders, for one, are staying put , as CBS Moneywatch recently noted. The sell/buy ratio among corporate insiders in early August was at its lowest point since March 2009. Big-shot executives might not be smarter than anyone else, but they usually don’t hesitate to run for the exits when times get tough. Wild swings in the Dow Jones Industrial Average might be scary, but they aren't necessarily the end of the world. The market likely will remain volatile for weeks, or maybe months, as the debt crisis in Europe continues to unfold and President Barack Obama unveils his jobs plan. The volatility can't be ignored entirely, and people should monitor their stocks more closely than they did when times were good. Remember, panic selling eventually leads to bargain hunting by investors. Many pundits argue that many blue-chip stocks are at rock-bottom prices. I recently snapped up shares of McDonald's (NYSE: MCD ), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO ) and Target (NYSE: TGT ) for my personal account. Investors don't have better alternatives to prepare for retirement than the stock market . The U.S. mutual fund industry held $11.8 trillion in assets at the end of 2010, according to the Investment Company Institute. That might seem like a huge amount of money, but it probably should be higher. Experts repeatedly have pointed out that many people's retirement savings are in poor shape. A recent survey by Fidelity Investments found that 30% of Americans nearing retirement don’t want to know if there are fiscally strong enough to quit working . Another report by the Employee Benefit Research Institute found that only 13% of respondents were confident their savings would last through their golden years. Bonds are safe, but their returns are far more modest than stocks. Cash and cash equivalents such as treasury bills are very safe but offer even worse returns. Famed economist Nourial Roubin recently told The Wall Street Journal that he was putting most of his money into cash, arguing it's better to be safe than sorry. He never addresses the tougher question of when to jump back into the stock market , though. It's a key issue because most people — including professional investors — are unable to successfully time the market. Real estate is not going to rebound for several years. Buying antiques and collectibles might pay off over time if someone buys something great (a Picasso painting or Babe Ruth's hat) and is lucky enough to find a willing buyer, which is not a given. But remember the average valuation of items brought to "Antiques Roadshow" is about $50 — hardly enough to quit one's day job. Gold prices hit a new record Friday of $1,867.80 per ounce. Will it go higher? Probably. Morgan Stanley recently hiked its 2011 gold price forecast by 8% to $1,511 per ounce and has it continuing to rise through 2012. But what happens after that is anybody's guess. Historically, gold has been a terrible investment over the long term. A dollar invested in gold in 1801 would have been worth 78 cents by 1998. The average inflation-adjusted return of the stock market since 1802 is about 7%, says Jeremy Siegel of the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business. The stock market might not be the only game in town, but it's the best one for investors. Jonathan Berr owns McDonald's, Coca-Cola and Target.



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