Tuesday, May 10, 2011

The Silver Price Rallied off Friday's $33.15 Low as High as $38.00

Gold Price Close Today : 1502.90 Change : 11.70 or 0.8% Silver Price Close
Today : 37.110 Change : $ 1.827 or 5.2% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 40.50 Change :
-1.765 or -4.2% Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02469 Change : 0.001031 or 4.4%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1794.00 Change : 17.00 or 1.0% Palladium Price
Close Today : 730.50 Change : 24.40 or 3.5% S&P 500 : 1,346.29 Change : 6.09 or
0.5% Dow In GOLD$ : $174.47 Change : $ (0.71) or -0.4% Dow in GOLD oz : 8.440
Change : -0.035 or -0.4% Dow in SILVER oz : 341.81 Change : -16.40 or -4.6% Dow
Industrial : 12,684.68 Change : 45.94 or 0.4% US Dollar Index : 74.68 Change :
0.028 or 0.0% Looking at my charts and past data this morning, it's difficult to
avoid the conclusion that the Silver Price has more downside in store. The Gold
Price might have made all the correction it intends to make, but that, too, is
uncertain. Earlier corrections after Gold/Silver Ratio lows have taken gold down
from 4% to 12%. The first we have seen already, and 12% would take us to $1,370.
These are possibilities, not predictions. The Silver Price rallied off Friday's
$33.15 low as high as $38.00, but couldn't pierce that barrier. On Comex silver
added $1.827 to close at $37.11, up a gigantic 5.2% but in the aftermarket it
added another 81c to reach a price 7.5% higher than Friday's. Sharp rises are
followed by sharp falls, and often then by sharp but truncated rises in turn.
Here we must balance jumping in too soon against missing our chance, a prickly
mess. For now my eyes are turned longingly toward the 200 day moving average
(now $28.48), so often the target of silver's corrections in this bull market.
Before we see that, however, we might see a rally that jumps as high as $42.00,
and it might consume quite a bit of time. I don't believe silver is ready to
take the bit in its teeth and run away upside quite yet. Give it time. GOLD on
Comex re-captured $11.70 to close at $1,502.90. Clearly lots of folks were
looking to visit the bargain basement gold sale, but in the aftermarket, after a
$10+ rise, gold stalled around $1,513 and fell back a couple of bucks. $1,510
forms the resistance that is bogging gold down, and above that $1,520 will suck
at gold's feet like quicksand. Clearly, then, a close above $1,520 would send
gold higher. Downside remember that $1,462 low. If the Gold Price breaks that
then it will have to do more penance, maybe on its knees. Keep calm, it is only
a correction in an on-going bull market (primary trend) with another three to
ten years to run. As you ought not to have succumbed to the hysteria on the
upside, you must not succumb to the despair on the downside. Wait. Compose
yourself in patience. Today taught a lesson to all those who arrogantly believe
parsing markets is easy. The US DOLLAR INDEX hit a high today at 75.16, but that
was one step too far for a fiat currency that had already run so hard. That
completed the move and the rest of the day the dollar backed off and ended at
74.68, up a meager 2.8 basis points from yesterday. It's a correction, folks,
ricocheting in its upward flight off the 50 DMA. Least target for rally reaches
77.40. Buttressing that conclusion is the Euro, collapsing like the Tsarist army
at Tannenberg. Yen is sprightlier, but looks like it has played out its upmove
as well. What happened about 11:45? Something to send stocks, which had
languished till then, a-soaring. McHugh of www.technicalindex.com, whom I
respect, expects one more leg up before the bear resumes his doomed and dreaded
mauling. Dow gained 45.94 to 12,684, S&P500 added 6.09 to end at 1,346.29. This
is cloud-cuckoo land, for tis a bear market (primary downtrend lasting 15 - 20
years that began in 2000) and no economic reason appears to imply improving
conditions in an economy gutted by central banks, banks, speculation, debt, and
exported industry and agriculture. But y'all hold on to your stocks -- they'll
make interesting keepsakes for your grandchildren, and who knows, by that time
they may have begun recovering. I have thirteen grandchildren: twelve boys and a
single girl, Caroline, Justin and Ellen's daughter. Five months after she was
born (July 2007) her illness revealed a malformed heart. After three miraculous
surgeries at Vanderbilt in Nashville, where children's heart surgery was
pioneered beginning in the 1940s, she has a rebuilt and efficient heart. She
plumped up and is as active as any four year old. But today she was out shopping
with her mother and grandmother and fainted. Why, no one can say, but her
doctors at Vanderbilt wanted to see her, so Justin and Ellen have taken her up
there tonight. Would y'all please pray for Caroline's complete recovery? I know
she is spectacularly beloved because we've seen so many miracles in her life
already. On this day in 1913 the 17th amendment to the US constitution was
ratified. It provided for electing senators by popular vote rather than by state
legislatures, thus depriving states of their representation and converting a
federated republic into a democracy. Yes, it did indeed mean that much. Argentum
et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin
Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com © 2011, The Moneychanger. May
not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express
permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a
very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary
trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1
gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under
2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary
trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write
"Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining
stocks, too?" No, I don't.

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