Sunday, May 15, 2011

Is This the End of the Market Rally?

Commodities and their related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and stocks in
general got clobbered yesterday. Does that signal the end of the market rally?
Yesterday's sell-off in commodities was to be expected as copper, crude oil
and other commodity futures came under pressure because they had run too far too
fast. The obvious leader of the group of overvalued commodities was silver. At
one point, the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV ) had run to almost 80% above its
200-day moving average. In just 10 sessions, it has fallen to a more reasonable
premium of 22.7% above its 200-day moving average. During the same period, gold,
the metal upon which silver's value has traditionally been measured, fell just
4.5%, as can be seen in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD ) chart. The market has
an uncanny ability to purge itself of overvalued situations. The major indices,
as illustrated by the S&P 500 chart, fell as well. But the support structure
illustrated in the chart above clearly shows a depth greater than a single
commodity like silver, and that should stabilize the broad market through the
month of May.  The short-term, intermediate-term and long-term trends have not
changed. Pullbacks should be viewed as opportunities to buy those stocks that
ran away from us in April. For one such stock, see the Trade of the Day . Todays
Trading Landscape To see a list of the companies reporting earnings today, click
here . For a list of this weeks economic reports due out, click here . If you
have questions or comments for Sam Collins, please e-mail him at samailc@cox.net
.

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