Saturday, April 16, 2011

Gold and Silver Prices Had a Rough Day

Gold Price Close Today : 1467.40 Change : (6.00) or -0.4% Silver Price Close
Today : 40.604 Change : 0.004 cents or 0.0% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 36.14
Change : -0.151 or -0.4% Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02767 Change : 0.000115 or
0.4% Platinum Price Close Today : 1781.50 Change : -29.40 or -1.6% Palladium
Price Close Today : 773.75 Change : -22.50 or -2.8% S&P 500 : 1,324.46 Change :
-3.71 or -0.3% Dow In GOLD$ : $174.42 Change : $ 0.74 or 0.4% Dow in GOLD oz :
8.437 Change : 0.036 or 0.4% Dow in SILVER oz : 304.92 Change : 0.03 or 0.0% Dow
Industrial : 12,381.11 Change : 1.06 or 0.0% US Dollar Index : 75.056 Change :
0.187 or 0.2% I'm late because at the end of the day the Spirit of Trading moved
on the minds of multitudes to call all at once. This fell amidst a magnificent
rain storm with raging vertical lightning. Beautiful to watch, but the cloud
cover baffles my satellite internet, so I had to rush home where I have cable
internet. About that time my wife Susan rings up wanting 5 lb. of frozen
hamburger out of the refrigerator in the barn across the road. Greater love hath
no man for his wife than he will walk bareheaded thru a drizzling rain for
frozen hamburger. But it was truly exhilarating, a cold spring rain filled with
singing birds, and the whole world smelled clean. That's quite a trick with a
barn, even for Spring. The US DOLLAR INDEX continues in its coma: high of 75.08,
low 74.90, no progress, no movement, up a chiselling 18.7 basis points. Clearly
75.10 has become the challenge for the dollar to overcome, but I wouldn't run
out and lay a lot of money on the dollar breaching that right away. If the
dollar foots around with 74.80 it will certainly hit 74.23, and maybe the low
70s. Euro fiddled today, closing 1.4436, down 0.32%. Yen closed 84.42Y/$
(118.46c/100 yen). STOCKS again tried to rally but failed. 12,450 has trapped
the Dow, which has thrice tried to pierce that barrier. Now maybe that's a sign
of strength, but up 1.06 points seemeth not strong to me. S&P fell 3.71 to
1324.46. Dow closed 12,381.11. Stocks: y'all just hang on to them. Sooner or
later they'll pry you away from all your capital. GOLD and SILVER had a rough
day. Now before I say anything, I tell y'all I don't want a lot of steaming
emails about my about-face, because I'm not making one. I've been telling y'all
that this wild ride could end at any time, and one day it will. Today might have
been that day, but only half the testimony has been taken. The GOLD PRICE
touched its high at $1,475.65 today. After the New York open it climbed off
$1,465 over $1,470, but very shortly. It then bumped along from 10:00 to 2:30
between $1,465 and $1,470. Comex closed down $6.00 at $1,467.40. Here in the
late (7:40 CDT) aftermarket gold has traded as low as $1,456.65. The five day
chart draws plain lines in the sand. Gold needs to cling to $1,455, but gold
could tumble clean to $1,430 without falling out of its upward channel. But a
bigger question looms: was today the first half of a dreaded key reversal? Gold
barely broke into new high territory with a lower close for the day. A lower
close tomorrow would put the second and final piece of the key reversal in
place. There's no way to know until we see how the market plays out tomorrow.
Clearly a push above $1,470 gainsays all this key reversal worry, or any close
higher than today's. If life were easy everybody would do it. The SILVER PRICE
did not make anything easy for us today. It reached a new intraday high at 4195c
(!), but on Comex closed at 4060.4, up a razor-thin 4/10c. What is that? The
daily chart tells an even raggeder tale. That new high came about 1:00 a.m. NY
time, and although it traded on the plateau of 4100c from 6:00 a.m. to 12:00
p.m. the day decidedly plunged. Ahh, break to new high ground, but no lower
close -- or can you call a 4/10c rise "higher". Is that legit? Sensible? An hour
after Comex shut the doors silver plunged to 3972c, then jumped back above
4000c. Now all this might say -- along with the seasonal expectation -- that
silver has topped. But it could just as clearly (and probably does) say that
silver had a great run last week and needs a breather this week. How do we tell
the difference? It would be good if silver held the line above 3950, but 3800c
would do. You might complain that I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth, but
that's how I keep from biting my tongue. A little correction has arrived. As
long as gold doesn't fall below $1,430 nor silver below 3800c, it will be brief.
By the way, the gold/silver ratio made yet another new low today at 36.139. I
have one leetle chicken bone in my craw I have to cough out, and that's the
reason why these internet silver puffers bother me like bull chiggers. They
froth and fume about how silver is going to the moon, and their chatter pulls in
a lot of ignorant people who just see the shooting star and understand nothing
of what set it on that trajectory. So they buy, then they don't get rich
overnight, silver corrects, and they all panic. They have been shorn, just like
sheep, thanks to the puffery. Worse, they don't understand silver's volatility,
so they'll probably sell at the bottom of a correction, just in time to see it
launch into orbit again. Fear and greed don't strike me as very flattering or
profitable guides for investing. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold
and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com © 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any
form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid
confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time
horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up,
targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver
ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and
worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down;
real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of
stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks,
too?" No, I don't.

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