For the second straight day, the developments of Japan have set the tone for
U.S. equities, which have responded to both the huge selloff in Japanese stocks,
as well as a continuing influence in the wake of real-time news reports on the
progress in solving the crisis. Those formerly important issues of oil prices
and/or the unrest in the Middle East? Those are apparently so last week. The
uncertainty of what will happen in the world's 10 th -most populated country
is front and center. As if evidence was needed, one only needed to wake up a few
minutes before the open of U.S. trading. Japan's Nikkei Index had just posted
a two-day loss of more than 17% and market futures in this country were pointing
toward a decline in the magnitude of more than 2%. In fact, such a decline was
in the early cards, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 300 points
out of the gate, and the S&P 500 came to within 5 points of its closing level of
2010. Yes, at one point on Tuesday, stocks were up 0.4% for the year. From that
point, however, events started working more in the bulls' favor. First and
foremost, while the news out of Japan – much of which has defied a definitive
version of the current state – was hardly positive, some indications that
things were either improving, or not getting worse, was starting to trickle in.
Whether that's true, investors at least could begin to consider a floor to the
damage and recovery costs and timeline, something that was impossible on Monday,
when nuclear meltdown seemed a stronger possibility than it did by Tuesday's
close. And then there was the help from oil prices, which had been declining in
recent days, but have rapidly fallen to around $97 a barrel on expected lower
demand in Japan. Regardless of the reason, the return of double-digit oil prices
has its benefits for the investor worldview. In addition, it's worth
mentioning Tuesday's Fed meeting, which ended with an official take that a
U.S. economic recovery was on "firmer footing." By the end of the session,
the Dow had pulled back to close with "only" a 137-point loss to 11,855, the
Nasdaq lost 34 points to 2667 and the S&P 500 fell 15 points to 1282. Utilities
took it on the chin for a second straight day. The Dow Jones Utilities Index
slid 1.9%. And insurers faced rough sledding. Hartford Financial (NYSE: HIG )
fell 4.6%, while AIG (NYSE: AIG ) was off 1.9%. Despite a strong finish, stocks
remain subject to the same amount of volatility currently embedded in the fate
of Japan's citizens.
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