Monday, March 14, 2011

Late Rally Can’t Overcome Slow Start

Amid about as much bad news and uncertainty from Japan as youd want to deal
with, the performance of U.S. equities on Monday was relatively sanguine. While
stocks did touch their lowest point in more than five weeks, they also rallied
enough to pull themselves essentially even with their level on Thursday, when
the market staged a significant selloff. By Mondays close, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average had lost 51 points to 11,993, the Nasdaq fell 15 points to
2701 and the S&P 500 was off 8 points to 1296. The weekends events in Japan
added even more complexity to Mondays trade, as one would expect. Combining
with the selloff itself in Japans Nikkei Index, which fell more than 6% on
Monday its biggest decline in more than two years was the push-and-pull of oil
prices: in short, how to compute both the still-uncertain Middle East
(higher-price bias) and still-uncertain Japan (lower-price bias, due to lowered
demand? For Monday, you dont, as the oil prices were essentially a push,
finishing close to flat at just more than $101 a barrel. But this was down day
for stocks and, those that suffered were those that have, for now, taken on
more risk as investors and consumers are forced to address the near-term and
long-term role of the nuclear industry in the U.S. Shares of General Electric
(NYSE: GE ), which was a supplier to the Japanese nuclear plant now on the minds
of every Japanese citizen, finished 2.2% lower on Monday. The Dow Jones Utility
Average slumped 1.4%. But it was also the day to put money to work in other
energy suppliers namely, solar wind and even coal. The Guggenheim Solar (NYSE:
TAN ) exchange-traded fund climbed 5.4%, while the First Trust Global Wind
Energy (NYSE: FAN ) ETF rose 3%. Coal miner Natural Resource Partners (NYSE: NRP
) added nearly 6% in Monday trading. As it played out, not much in Mondays
market session suggested anything other than uncertainty is the backdrop for
this week. Bond traders bid their market higher, pushing the 10-year notes yield
down to 3.36% its lowest close in nearly six weeks. And the Volatility Index
continued to add to its uptrend of the past month.

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