Saturday, November 20, 2010

3 Must-See Charts for the Week Ahead

There is a lot going on in the news as of late, and the expiration of the Bush
tax cuts looms large on the minds of many, particularly small business owners.
So the real question becomes, what should traders be watching or paying
attention to before the light-volume Thanksgiving week? The answer is simple:
Watch the tape! The market will provide plenty of clues, and it will eventually
tip its hand. Experienced traders will wait for this process to unfold. At this
point in time, it is a bit early to begin making predictions as to which
direction the equities market will go. What we do know is that the market was
oversold in the short term, so this could be a pause before prices turn lower.
On the other hand, this could be the beginning of another bullish move breaking
recent highs on its way to a Santa Claus rally. My stance is neutral at this
point in time. S&P 1,200 should offer significant overhead resistance, while S&P
1,170 / 50-period moving average is near-term support. The chart listed below
illustrates these key levels: If the index were to break out above S&P 1,200 on
strong volume, it is likely that we will see a retest of the recent highs around
the 1,220 area. Consequently, if it tests the S&P 1,170 area and fails, it will
likely be magnetized to the 1,140-1,150 area. We will have our answers in due
time, but until a definite direction is known, patience is warranted. Treasuries
The ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (NYSE: TBT ) bounced off of the
$36 level and put on a short-lived rally only to settle toward the bottom third
of its recent price range. After the recent breakout, it would be constructive
to see TBT consolidate before confirming a direction. The chart below shows the
key levels on TBT: U.S. Dollar Instead of illustrating a gold chart, let us
focus our attention on the U.S. Dollar Index. The chart below shows the dollar
has pulled back and is now testing the 50-period moving average. I am
anticipating a retest of the recent breakout over double-tops and this key level
is illustrated below. If support holds firm, higher prices for the U.S. dollar
in the near term will be likely. If you would like to receive my Free Options
Strategy Guide & Trade Ideas, join this free newsletter .

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