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Sunday, January 1, 2012
Will Gold and Silver Revert to Being Safe Havens Again?
in money, but your money in trust. What about gold and silver? Can you trust
them to be the safe haven again theyre supposed to be? 2011 was a turbulent year
for precious metals, gold and silver in particular. Silver spiked to a new
nominal all-time high on April 25. Gold outlasted silver and recorded a new
nominal all-time high on Sept. 6. Time has a way to obliterate unpleasant
memories, but lets take a moment to revisit the frenzy that was so prevalent at
silver and golds all-time high. Silver Frenzy For two days in late April, the
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV ) was the most heavily traded ETF in the world.
Investors were even willing to pay a premium to own SLV over physical silver. On
April 25, the day silver topped, The Wall Street Journal wrote in a front-page
article titled Silver rush spreads to stock market that Investors have turned to
precious metals amid worries about inflation and the weakness in the U.S dollar.
The metals are increasingly considered attractive as a permanent store of value
that doesnt diminish like paper currencies. Since then, the permanent store of
value, silver, is down 43%, while diminishing paper currency (the U.S. dollar)
is up 9%. Contrary to the silver rush, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter warned
on April 10: Silver seems to be in blow off mode just as oil was in the summer
of 2008. Chances are that similar to oil, prices will collapse once up side
momentum is exhausted. Picking a top is treacherous but silver is definitely
overbought and may collapse at any moment. Gold Frenzy Gold in September
followed the same template as the silver top. The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD )
became the largest ETF in late August with $78 billion in assets, and the gold
rush was on. At the time, gold was viewed as the ultimate safe haven against
inflation, deflation, European defaults and whatever other problem you can think
of. The Aug. 24 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter, however, looked at gold prices
from a different angle and warned: Even though gold is the logical fear trade,
price action is also dictated by liquidity. At some point investors will have to
sell holdings to pay off debt or answer margin calls. Commonly the most
profitable asset is sold first. Gold has been the best performing asset for a
decade and a liquidity crunch could produce sellers en masse. Gold prices are
down 18% since their September high. Silver Outlook The chart below shows silver
prices for 2011 along with some simple but effective trend lines. Its funny that
a digital crayon can prove more powerful than the combined power of Wall Streets
analysts. Based on a simple resistance line, the Oct. 30 ETF Profit Strategy
Newsletter said, Silver is getting close to resistance at 36 36.4. The outlook
for silver is bearish as long as prices stay below 36 36.4. Since then silver
has broken through a number of support levels. If current support fails, silver
will drop into a technical vacuum with no real support levels for quite a while.
Gold Outlook Hope for gold was high at the beginning of December. Here are some
headlines from Dec. 2: Investopedia: 5 best bets for buying gold Motley Fool:
$7000 gold is closer than you might think Reuters: Gold bull run to extend to
2012 on resilient demand The same day, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter
identified this short opportunity: Gold prices are butting up against a trend
line that originates from the September high. This is a low-risk opportunity
simply because the risk is well defined by the trend line. Traders may go short
gold with a stop-loss at 1,760 for gold futures or 171.1 for GLD. The chart
below shows various gold trend lines, including the upper yellow trend line that
acted like resistance of a bearish triangle. Of importance to gold is also the
150-day SMA, which has provided support for gold about a dozen times since
January 2009. The Aug. 31 ETF Profit Strategy update suggested that a test of
the 150-day SMA (a $250/oz. drop) is next. CNBC aptly summarized goldbugs
frustration this way: In just three months, gold has gone from the trade that
works in every kind of market to the trade that doesnt work in any market. Gold
has found support at the final support line. It is possible that gold will come
back to kiss one of those trend lines goodbye, but regardless, the trend is
pointing to lower prices . A Remarkable, Yet Ominous, Trend If you look at gold,
silver and the euro, and compare them with U.S. stocks, youll find that U.S.
stocks are the best performer. Considering the backdrop of bad news, this is
remarkable and ominous at the same time. In fact, it raises a number of red
flags. 1) U.S. stocks are strongly correlated to the euro. The euro (NYSE: FXE )
dropped from 1.49 to 1.28 while the U.S. dollar (NYSE: UUP ) rallied. January
tends to be a seasonally weak period for the euro. A weak euro is bad for
commodities (like gold and silver) and U.S. stocks. 2) The U.S. stock indexes
are fragmented. On Dec. 28,the Dow rallied to new recovery highs (highest since
July 21). The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 did not get past their Oct. 27 high, and
the Nasdaq didnt even make it past its Dec. 5 high. 3) 50.5% of investment
advisers and newsletter writers polled by Investors Intelligence are bullish
again. This is the highest reading since July. Event though this doesnt mean
stocks cant go any higher, it suggests that stocks are in a countertrend rally.
In short, the metals and the euro have already turned, while U.S. stocks are
holding on by a thin thread. The question is not if but when U.S. stocks will
join the rest of the bunch. An interesting side point is that the S&P is stuck
in a similar triangle formation as gold was just a few weeks ago. The ETF Profit
Strategy Newsletter outlines the price target for gold and silver and the
triangle support/resistance lines for the S&P along with short, mid and
long-term forecasts for stocks.
The ONLY Thing That Will Save the Economy in 2012
2012. You have to have confidence. I know, I know. You think I'm batty as
Julie Andrews spinning up the dirt road to the von Trapp manor with guitar in
hand, singing, "I have confidence in me!" Maybe it is a little crazy. But
it's true. Even the cold, hard facts of this complex global economy make this
same emotional plea. Confidence or a lack there-of is paramount. Fact:
December will mark the eighth straight month of net withdrawals from U.S. mutual
funds. Investors don't have confidence, so they are taking their money and
running. Fact: The European Central Bank continues to set records as continental
banks park their cash there. Why? Because euro zone banks don't have
confidence they will get paid back if they lend to anyone else but the massive
central bank. Just as the phrase "crisis of confidence" characterized the
U.S. credit freeze after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in 2008, it has become
shorthand for in the debt crisis of Europe, too. Fact: For the third quarter,
The Conference Board's measure of chief executive confidence declined even
more to bottom out at a two-year low. That stat is about as quantifiable as
uncertainty can get. Heck, on the most basic level, it is confidence that moves
the market. Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD ) saw a 30% decline in the stock this
week because store closings made people doubt the long-term hopes of the
company. When stocks go up, it's when the reverse is true that investors are
secure in the company's future. In finance, confidence is key right now. So
what can we do in a world like this? After all, it's hard to see how one
American can swim against the dark tide of uncertainty that seems to be sweeping
in from all corners. Its simple. Don't let your fears and doubts cripple you
in the year ahead. Have confidence in your own financial endeavors in 2012, even
if you're scared. If you want to start a business, start a business. Who cares
if everyone tells you that "this isn't the environment for a start-up." Is
it ever really a good time to take out a second mortgage, forgo
corporate-sponsored health insurance and work 60-hour weeks because there's
nobody else to help? True entrepreneurs are risk-takers by nature. If you want
to spend money, spend money. I can't tell you how many people have told me
that it was a "bad idea" to take a vacation even if they had the money and
time this year. Seriously? Someone please shoot me if I ever decide it's a bad
idea to play on the beach with my daughters and a good idea to sit in a cubicle
for eight hours. If you want to quit your job, quit your job. Numerous studies
show that employee dissatisfaction is at an all-time low largely because people
think they don't have options. Everyone has their breaking point, so make sure
you reach that breaking point with your employer before it starts affecting your
personal relationships and overall happiness. All this is easier said than done,
I know. But if you don't believe that ultimately things are going to be OK or
that there are options … then frankly, whats the point? Sure, there is the
possibility of chaos in Europe and a "hard landing" in China. There is
political and economic bedlam at home and abroad. If you want to live your life
based on doomsday scenarios, go build a bunker with canned goods and gold
bullion instead of reading this blog post. Yes, we have big problems both
macroeconomically and microeconomically in our personal household budgets. But
unless we have the confidence and courage to face these issues and get on with
our lives, we are doomed to the status quo. So if you're looking for a New
Year's resolution, buck up and sing along with me and Julie: with each step I
am more certain Everything will turn out fine I have confidence the world can
all be mine Theyll have to agree I have confidence in me. Here's to 2012. Jeff
Reeves is editor of InvestorPlace.com. Write him at jreeves@investorplace.com .
4 Comeback Kid Stocks for 2012
couldn't come fast enough. The volatile year caused a lot of former market
stalwarts to tumble during the past 12 months, but now the question is which
battered market stars will be able to mount a comeback. For this assignment, I
polished my crystal ball and tried to foresee which stocks have the potential to
shed their bearish robes and jump back on the bull in the year to come. Here are
four comeback kid stocks for 2012: First Solar The solar sector suffered
third-degree burns in 2011, with industry leader First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR )
sinking almost 75%. The stock's decline really heated up in December when the
company lowered its 2012 outlook . So why should we think First Solar's shares
could be one of the comeback kid stocks in 2012? Well, because demand for solar
panels remains high. In Q3 we saw record-setting U.S. solar installations, with
449 megawatts of PV installed in the U.S. alone. Installations in Q4 are
predicted to be even bigger, and industry analysts think there will be a
substantive acceleration in solar PV installations in the U.S. over the next
five years due to a classic combination of decreased solar installation costs
and increased solar demand. There will be growth in the solar sector in the
months and years to come, and once the market recognizes this growth, the sun
could rise again on First Solar shares. Goldman Sachs It was a tough year for
the financial sector in 2011. Some of the biggest names in the business got
taken to the woodshed by investors, including Bank of America (NYSE: BAC ) ,
Citigroup (NYSE: C ) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS ) . Even the most savvy, most
politically connected financial firm, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS ), had a terrible
time of it in 2011. Goldman shares are down 46% for the year, but in 2012
Goldman is likely to flip that script. For Goldman, 2012 is going to be a
transition year, as the firm deals with a new set of proposed financial rules
governing bank holding companies. Once the rules are set, the smart people at
Goldman can get back to the business of making money. If they succeed, look for
GS shares to surge in 2012. China 25 Index Chinese stocks were rocked in 2011 by
growing fears that the country's economy represented an unsustainable bubble
waiting to burst. Then there were the many Chinese companies that tanked due to
bogus financial data, and even criminal malfeasance. The negative perception,
when it comes to investing in the country's market, caused the iShares FTSE
China 25 Index (NYSE: FXI ) the benchmark measure of quality Chinese stocks to
sink 19% this year. This trend definitely could reverse course in 2012, as China
moves to loosen its purse strings and make more capital available. In 2011,
Chinese policymakers forced banks to increase loan reserve requirements to
control inflation. That move worked, and now China is back to adopting
friendlier lending standards. In fact, we will likely see an interest-rate cut
in China in the first quarter, and that almost certainly would spark some major
buying in FXI. Potash This fertilizer stock stunk up Wall Street in 2011, as
industry leader Potash (NYSE: POT ) fell almost 20%. The company struggled to
keep up with competitors such as CVR Partners (NYSE: UAN ), but many analysts
now think Potash is poised for a recovery. Potash has nearly completed spending
on its huge Brownfield expansion program, and that will put it into position to
start taking better advantage of high potash prices, and what will likely be a
record year in terms of global demand. The company is expected to see EPS growth
of about 19% in 2012, and given its current price, POT shares really could begin
to smell like roses and be one of the best comeback kid stocks of 2012. This
article originally appeared on Traders Reserve .
4 Comeback Kid Stocks for 2012
couldn't come fast enough. The volatile year caused a lot of former market
stalwarts to tumble during the past 12 months, but now the question is which
battered market stars will be able to mount a comeback. For this assignment, I
polished my crystal ball and tried to foresee which stocks have the potential to
shed their bearish robes and jump back on the bull in the year to come. Here are
four comeback kid stocks for 2012: First Solar The solar sector suffered
third-degree burns in 2011, with industry leader First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR )
sinking almost 75%. The stock's decline really heated up in December when the
company lowered its 2012 outlook . So why should we think First Solar's shares
could be one of the comeback kid stocks in 2012? Well, because demand for solar
panels remains high. In Q3 we saw record-setting U.S. solar installations, with
449 megawatts of PV installed in the U.S. alone. Installations in Q4 are
predicted to be even bigger, and industry analysts think there will be a
substantive acceleration in solar PV installations in the U.S. over the next
five years due to a classic combination of decreased solar installation costs
and increased solar demand. There will be growth in the solar sector in the
months and years to come, and once the market recognizes this growth, the sun
could rise again on First Solar shares. Goldman Sachs It was a tough year for
the financial sector in 2011. Some of the biggest names in the business got
taken to the woodshed by investors, including Bank of America (NYSE: BAC ) ,
Citigroup (NYSE: C ) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS ) . Even the most savvy, most
politically connected financial firm, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS ), had a terrible
time of it in 2011. Goldman shares are down 46% for the year, but in 2012
Goldman is likely to flip that script. For Goldman, 2012 is going to be a
transition year, as the firm deals with a new set of proposed financial rules
governing bank holding companies. Once the rules are set, the smart people at
Goldman can get back to the business of making money. If they succeed, look for
GS shares to surge in 2012. China 25 Index Chinese stocks were rocked in 2011 by
growing fears that the country's economy represented an unsustainable bubble
waiting to burst. Then there were the many Chinese companies that tanked due to
bogus financial data, and even criminal malfeasance. The negative perception,
when it comes to investing in the country's market, caused the iShares FTSE
China 25 Index (NYSE: FXI ) the benchmark measure of quality Chinese stocks to
sink 19% this year. This trend definitely could reverse course in 2012, as China
moves to loosen its purse strings and make more capital available. In 2011,
Chinese policymakers forced banks to increase loan reserve requirements to
control inflation. That move worked, and now China is back to adopting
friendlier lending standards. In fact, we will likely see an interest-rate cut
in China in the first quarter, and that almost certainly would spark some major
buying in FXI. Potash This fertilizer stock stunk up Wall Street in 2011, as
industry leader Potash (NYSE: POT ) fell almost 20%. The company struggled to
keep up with competitors such as CVR Partners (NYSE: UAN ), but many analysts
now think Potash is poised for a recovery. Potash has nearly completed spending
on its huge Brownfield expansion program, and that will put it into position to
start taking better advantage of high potash prices, and what will likely be a
record year in terms of global demand. The company is expected to see EPS growth
of about 19% in 2012, and given its current price, POT shares really could begin
to smell like roses and be one of the best comeback kid stocks of 2012. This
article originally appeared on Traders Reserve .
4 Comeback Kid Stocks for 2012
couldn't come fast enough. The volatile year caused a lot of former market
stalwarts to tumble during the past 12 months, but now the question is which
battered market stars will be able to mount a comeback. For this assignment, I
polished my crystal ball and tried to foresee which stocks have the potential to
shed their bearish robes and jump back on the bull in the year to come. Here are
four comeback kid stocks for 2012: First Solar The solar sector suffered
third-degree burns in 2011, with industry leader First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR )
sinking almost 75%. The stock's decline really heated up in December when the
company lowered its 2012 outlook . So why should we think First Solar's shares
could be one of the comeback kid stocks in 2012? Well, because demand for solar
panels remains high. In Q3 we saw record-setting U.S. solar installations, with
449 megawatts of PV installed in the U.S. alone. Installations in Q4 are
predicted to be even bigger, and industry analysts think there will be a
substantive acceleration in solar PV installations in the U.S. over the next
five years due to a classic combination of decreased solar installation costs
and increased solar demand. There will be growth in the solar sector in the
months and years to come, and once the market recognizes this growth, the sun
could rise again on First Solar shares. Goldman Sachs It was a tough year for
the financial sector in 2011. Some of the biggest names in the business got
taken to the woodshed by investors, including Bank of America (NYSE: BAC ) ,
Citigroup (NYSE: C ) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS ) . Even the most savvy, most
politically connected financial firm, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS ), had a terrible
time of it in 2011. Goldman shares are down 46% for the year, but in 2012
Goldman is likely to flip that script. For Goldman, 2012 is going to be a
transition year, as the firm deals with a new set of proposed financial rules
governing bank holding companies. Once the rules are set, the smart people at
Goldman can get back to the business of making money. If they succeed, look for
GS shares to surge in 2012. China 25 Index Chinese stocks were rocked in 2011 by
growing fears that the country's economy represented an unsustainable bubble
waiting to burst. Then there were the many Chinese companies that tanked due to
bogus financial data, and even criminal malfeasance. The negative perception,
when it comes to investing in the country's market, caused the iShares FTSE
China 25 Index (NYSE: FXI ) the benchmark measure of quality Chinese stocks to
sink 19% this year. This trend definitely could reverse course in 2012, as China
moves to loosen its purse strings and make more capital available. In 2011,
Chinese policymakers forced banks to increase loan reserve requirements to
control inflation. That move worked, and now China is back to adopting
friendlier lending standards. In fact, we will likely see an interest-rate cut
in China in the first quarter, and that almost certainly would spark some major
buying in FXI. Potash This fertilizer stock stunk up Wall Street in 2011, as
industry leader Potash (NYSE: POT ) fell almost 20%. The company struggled to
keep up with competitors such as CVR Partners (NYSE: UAN ), but many analysts
now think Potash is poised for a recovery. Potash has nearly completed spending
on its huge Brownfield expansion program, and that will put it into position to
start taking better advantage of high potash prices, and what will likely be a
record year in terms of global demand. The company is expected to see EPS growth
of about 19% in 2012, and given its current price, POT shares really could begin
to smell like roses and be one of the best comeback kid stocks of 2012. This
article originally appeared on Traders Reserve .
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Top 10 Best-Performing Micro Cap Stocks in 2011: ACHC, TSTF, EDAC, COOL, GENE, PZZI, PVSA, PKT, MDW, INPH
Healthcare Co Inc (AMEX:ACHC) is the 1st best-performing stock in 2011 in this
segment of the market. It was up 497.01% for the year. Its price percentage
change was 17.29% in the past month. TeamStaff, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSTF) is the 2nd
best-performing stock in 2011 in this segment of the market. It was up 270.59%
for the year. Its price percentage change was -5.54% in the past month. EDAC
Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ:EDAC) is the 3rd best-performing stock in 2011
in this segment of the market. It was up 226.89% for the year. Its price
percentage change was 19.76% in the past month. Majesco Entertainment Co.
(NASDAQ:COOL) is the 4th best-performing stock in 2011 in this segment of the
market. It was up 216.92% for the year. Its price percentage change was -12.23%
in the past month. Genetic Technologies Limited (ADR) (NASDAQ:GENE) is the 5th
best-performing stock in 2011 in this segment of the market. It was up 187.20%
for the year. Its price percentage change was -21.71% in the past month. Pizza
Inn, Inc. (NASDAQ:PZZI) is the 6th best-performing stock in 2011 in this segment
of the market. It was up 182.05% for the year. Its price percentage change was
-2.55% in the past month. Parkvale Financial Corp. (NASDAQ:PVSA) is the 7th
best-performing stock in 2011 in this segment of the market. It was up 167.65%
for the year. Its price percentage change was 6.73% in the past month. Procera
Networks, Inc. (AMEX:PKT) is the 8th best-performing stock in 2011 in this
segment of the market. It was up 151.29% for the year. Its price percentage
change was -3.17% in the past month. Midway Gold Corp. (AMEX:MDW) is the 9th
best-performing stock in 2011 in this segment of the market. It was up 151.28%
for the year. Its price percentage change was -10.59% in the past month.
Interphase Corporation (NASDAQ:INPH) is the 10th best-performing stock in 2011
in this segment of the market. It was up 151.11% for the year. Its price
percentage change was 0.89% in the past month.
Top 10 Utility Stocks with Highest Dividend Yield: SBS, HGT, NGG, ETE, EDE, HNP, TAC, POM, CPL, BIP (Dec 31, 2011)
XCSFDHG46767FHJHJF
tdp2664 China Analyst Below are the top 10 Utility stocks with highest dividend yields. One Chinese company (HNP) is on the list. Companhia de Saneamento Basico (ADR) (NYSE:SBS) has the 1st highest dividend yield in this segment of the market. Its current dividend yield is 7.65%. Its dividend payout ratio was 35.41% for the last 12 months. Hugoton Royalty Trust (NYSE:HGT) has the 2nd highest dividend yield in this segment of the market. Its current dividend yield is 7.40%. Its dividend payout ratio was 100.00% for the last 12 months. National Grid plc (ADR) (NYSE:NGG) has the 3rd highest dividend yield in this segment of the market. Its current dividend yield is 6.18%. Its dividend payout ratio was 60.07% for the last 12 months. Energy Transfer Equity, L.P. (NYSE:ETE) has the 4th highest dividend yield in this segment of the market. Its current dividend yield is 6.16%. Its dividend payout ratio was 175.11% for the last 12 months. The Empire District Electric Company (NYSE:EDE) has the 5th highest dividend yield in this segment of the market. Its current dividend yield is 6.07%. Its dividend payout ratio was 73.21% for the last 12 months. Huaneng Power International, Inc. (ADR) (NYSE:HNP) has the 6th highest dividend yield in this segment of the market. Its current dividend yield is 5.80%. Its dividend payout ratio was 110.39% for the last 12 months. TransAlta Corporation (USA) (NYSE:TAC) has the 7th highest dividend yield in this segment of the market. Its current dividend yield is 5.46%. Its dividend payout ratio was 104.52% for the last 12 months. Pepco Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:POM) has the 8th highest dividend yield in this segment of the market. Its current dividend yield is 5.32%. Its dividend payout ratio was 96.81% for the last 12 months. CPFL Energia S.A. (ADR) (NYSE:CPL) has the 9th highest dividend yield in this segment of the market. Its current dividend yield is 5.22%. Its dividend payout ratio was 83.75% for the last 12 months. Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (NYSE:BIP) has the 10th highest dividend yield in this segment of the market. Its current dividend yield is 5.05%. Its dividend payout ratio was 31.99% for the last 12 months.