Major commodities prices took a dive yesterday and declined by the sharpest rate
in recent months; some speculate that the trigger for this turn of events may
have been the announcement in the recent FOMC meeting of no new stimulus plan; I
suspect, gold and silver prices are strongly correlated with the expansion of
the U.S. monetary base and therefore a lack of another stimulus plan prompted a
dumping of commodities including gold.
Thursday, December 15, 2011
How Low Will This Market Go?
A fall in the euro sent equity and commodity markets into a downward spiral
yesterday. Sentiment against the euro strengthened following Germany's stand
that its government is against raising the lending limit for a euro zone
bailout. In response, Italy's 10-year bond yield rose 7%-plus, and Spain and
France saw their bond yields jump as well. The U.S. dollar rose, of course, and
the rise was accentuated by a series of better-than-expected economic reports.
Commodities fell sharply in response to the stronger dollar. The CRB Index fell
3.4%, and gold settled at $1,587.70 an ounce, down 4.6%, and silver lost 7.6%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 11,823, off 1.1%, the S&P 500 ended
at 1,212, down 1.13%, and the Nasdaq closed at 2,539, down 1.55%. The NYSE
traded 928 million shares, and the Nasdaq crossed 512 million. Decliners were
ahead of advancers on the Big Board by 3-to-1 and on the Nasdaq by 2-to-1.
Yesterday, every major index violated its near-term support as the dollar
rocketed to new highs. Click to Enlarge The breakdown of the S&P 500 is
significant because it confirmed the failure of the index to break higher at its
bearish resistance line (June/July, October and November highs); it turned down
from its 200-day moving average a confirmation that the long-term bear market
is intact; and it crushed the near-term support provided by the conjunction of
the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The question is: How low will it go? The
answer may surprise you: Not very far, at least initially. There is a broad band
of support at 1,124 to 1,225 that will more than likely slow the decline, and
the uptrend line of a major trading triangle rests at 1,175. Additionally, the
Fibonacci numbers off of the November low to the December are: 50% = 1,212
(yesterday's close), 61.8% = 1,200.
yesterday. Sentiment against the euro strengthened following Germany's stand
that its government is against raising the lending limit for a euro zone
bailout. In response, Italy's 10-year bond yield rose 7%-plus, and Spain and
France saw their bond yields jump as well. The U.S. dollar rose, of course, and
the rise was accentuated by a series of better-than-expected economic reports.
Commodities fell sharply in response to the stronger dollar. The CRB Index fell
3.4%, and gold settled at $1,587.70 an ounce, down 4.6%, and silver lost 7.6%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 11,823, off 1.1%, the S&P 500 ended
at 1,212, down 1.13%, and the Nasdaq closed at 2,539, down 1.55%. The NYSE
traded 928 million shares, and the Nasdaq crossed 512 million. Decliners were
ahead of advancers on the Big Board by 3-to-1 and on the Nasdaq by 2-to-1.
Yesterday, every major index violated its near-term support as the dollar
rocketed to new highs. Click to Enlarge The breakdown of the S&P 500 is
significant because it confirmed the failure of the index to break higher at its
bearish resistance line (June/July, October and November highs); it turned down
from its 200-day moving average a confirmation that the long-term bear market
is intact; and it crushed the near-term support provided by the conjunction of
the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The question is: How low will it go? The
answer may surprise you: Not very far, at least initially. There is a broad band
of support at 1,124 to 1,225 that will more than likely slow the decline, and
the uptrend line of a major trading triangle rests at 1,175. Additionally, the
Fibonacci numbers off of the November low to the December are: 50% = 1,212
(yesterday's close), 61.8% = 1,200.
Todays Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA Index; Nasdaq Index; S&P 500 Index, Stock Market USA Investing News Today
The primary stock indices in the U.S. fell lower through the mid-week trading
session today. The negative trending has been a constant this week as investors
continue to deal with the negative ramifications of the European debt crisis.
Leaders in Europe have announced that a plan to stabilize the strained eurozone
economy is set and scheduled to be implemented in the coming months. Few
plan-specific details are available however and worry remains. The weight of
this worry has pulled the primary indices in the U.S. into the red on each
trading day this week. Today, as the final numbers were finalized, the three
primary indices settled on the negative side of break-even. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average finished the session red by 1.10 percent at 11,823.48. The
Nasdaq finished the day lower by 1.55 percent at 2,539.31 and the S&P 500 closed
out the session red by 1.13 percent at 1,211.82. The dollar gained momentum as
the euro continued to fall back. Commodities dropped lower. Oil price per barrel
fell by 5.18 percent last session to 94.95 per barrel and gold futures dropped
off into the red as well last session. Frank Matto
session today. The negative trending has been a constant this week as investors
continue to deal with the negative ramifications of the European debt crisis.
Leaders in Europe have announced that a plan to stabilize the strained eurozone
economy is set and scheduled to be implemented in the coming months. Few
plan-specific details are available however and worry remains. The weight of
this worry has pulled the primary indices in the U.S. into the red on each
trading day this week. Today, as the final numbers were finalized, the three
primary indices settled on the negative side of break-even. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average finished the session red by 1.10 percent at 11,823.48. The
Nasdaq finished the day lower by 1.55 percent at 2,539.31 and the S&P 500 closed
out the session red by 1.13 percent at 1,211.82. The dollar gained momentum as
the euro continued to fall back. Commodities dropped lower. Oil price per barrel
fell by 5.18 percent last session to 94.95 per barrel and gold futures dropped
off into the red as well last session. Frank Matto
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Nalco and HCL to Lead Consortium to Bid for Afghan Copper #Nalco, #HCL, #Afghancopper
A consortium of India metal corporations are getting ready to tender bids for
copper mines in Afghanistan. Indias largest aluminum producer, National Aluminum
Company (Nalco) and the countrys sole integrated copper producer, Hindustan
Copper Limited (HCL) are reportedly leading the consortium to bid for
development of the Ayank copper reserves in Logar province, 30km south-east of
Kabul. Part of the Ayank reserves had been awarded to The Metallurgical
Corporation of China in 2007, which will commence production in 2014. Another
India consortium Afghan Iron and Steel Consortium (Afisco) tendered a successful
bid last month to invest US$11 billion to develop the 1.8 billion ton Hajigak
iron-ore reserves in Afghanistan. This marked the highest direct foreign
investment in Afghanistan. The government looks set to roll out six more new
mining sites in the first quarter of 2012. These include three copper reserves
in Ayank, two in gold and one in lithium. "We are trying to get all details of
copper deposits in Afghanistan and will surely participate once expressions of
interests are floated. We have the skills in mining copper and Nalco has the
cash," HCL chairperson
copper mines in Afghanistan. Indias largest aluminum producer, National Aluminum
Company (Nalco) and the countrys sole integrated copper producer, Hindustan
Copper Limited (HCL) are reportedly leading the consortium to bid for
development of the Ayank copper reserves in Logar province, 30km south-east of
Kabul. Part of the Ayank reserves had been awarded to The Metallurgical
Corporation of China in 2007, which will commence production in 2014. Another
India consortium Afghan Iron and Steel Consortium (Afisco) tendered a successful
bid last month to invest US$11 billion to develop the 1.8 billion ton Hajigak
iron-ore reserves in Afghanistan. This marked the highest direct foreign
investment in Afghanistan. The government looks set to roll out six more new
mining sites in the first quarter of 2012. These include three copper reserves
in Ayank, two in gold and one in lithium. "We are trying to get all details of
copper deposits in Afghanistan and will surely participate once expressions of
interests are floated. We have the skills in mining copper and Nalco has the
cash," HCL chairperson
Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) Buys Siri Competitor
Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) has acquired the Alfred app developer Clever Sense.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) Buys Siri Competitor Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG), the
world's largest search engine, has purchased the local mobile recommendation
app maker Clever Sense, perhaps to compete with Apple's Siri. The company
developed Alfred, a mobile app which helps users by recommending restaurants and
other shops based on their dining choices. Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) said,
"The Clever Sense team is at the forefront of developing a recommendation
engine that connects the online and offline worlds by delivering personal and
sophisticated information to users at the right time, the right place, and
within the right context. By combining their technology and expertise with our
team and products, well be able to provide even more people with intelligent,
personalized recommendations for places to eat, visit, and discover". Google
Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) shares are currently standing at 617.31. Price History Last
Price: 617.31 52 Week Low / High: 473.02 / 642.96 50 Day Moving Average: 587.72
6 Month Price Change %: 23.1% 12 Month Price Change %: 5.2%
Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) Buys Siri Competitor Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG), the
world's largest search engine, has purchased the local mobile recommendation
app maker Clever Sense, perhaps to compete with Apple's Siri. The company
developed Alfred, a mobile app which helps users by recommending restaurants and
other shops based on their dining choices. Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) said,
"The Clever Sense team is at the forefront of developing a recommendation
engine that connects the online and offline worlds by delivering personal and
sophisticated information to users at the right time, the right place, and
within the right context. By combining their technology and expertise with our
team and products, well be able to provide even more people with intelligent,
personalized recommendations for places to eat, visit, and discover". Google
Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) shares are currently standing at 617.31. Price History Last
Price: 617.31 52 Week Low / High: 473.02 / 642.96 50 Day Moving Average: 587.72
6 Month Price Change %: 23.1% 12 Month Price Change %: 5.2%
Are Emerging Markets Decoupling from the Developed World?
Our generation has seen and heard its fair share of bunk economic theories.
These are high-sounding theories that often are touted by recognized investors
or higher learning institutions and for that reason, they mostly remain
unchallenged. At the top of the list is economic decoupling between emerging and
developed countries. How have emerging market countries fared this year? Is
there any evidence they are decoupling from the rest of the world? And how can
investors make informed and profitable investment decisions in this particular
category? Read on: Emerging Markets Countries that are in the midst of rapid
business growth and industrialization generally are referred to as "emerging
markets." With a combined population of almost 2.5 billion people, China and
India are among the largest emerging-market countries. The theory behind
economic decoupling is that emerging-market countries can prosper and remain
unaffected by adverse financial conditions elsewhere particularly by the
adverse financial conditions of developed countries such as the U.S. Decoupling
has been heavily promoted during the past several years, especially by academic
types in the mainstream press. While decoupling might sound like a plausible
idea, the performance for emerging-market stocks this year doesnt support that
view. The Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE: VWO ) is down more than 19%
year-to-date compared to lower-to-flat performance by the Schwab U.S. Broad
Market ETF (NYSE: SCHB ) and a 14% loss for developed stocks Vanguard MSCI EAFE
ETF (NYSE: VEA ). What about mega emerging-market countries like Brazil, Russia,
India and China? As a group, BRIC country stocks represented by the SPDR S&P
BRIC 40 (ETF) (NYSE: BIK ) are down almost 19% since the beginning of the year.
The iShares S&P India Nifty 50 Index Fund (NASDAQ: INDY ), Market Vector Russia
ETF Trust (NYSE: RSX ) and iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (NYSE: EWZ ) are in
bear market territory, down between 20% to 40% in value. Based upon the stock
markets performance, the theory of economic decoupling isnt holding up, and
neither is the argument of a soft landing. Slowing Growth The high-octane growth
from emerging countries that analysts have been preaching is not as high or as
fast as previously thought. Chinas Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price
Index (PPI) for November were a big disappointment. The year-over-year results
were weaker than projected. CPI was ahead just 4.2% compared to 5.5% in November
2010, and PPI for the same period was 2.7% compared to 5%. Also, declines in
both Chinas CPI and PPI were worse than what economists were projecting. CPI
measures the changes in the price of goods and services bought by consumers,
while PPI measures the changes in the price of goods and services sold by
producers.
These are high-sounding theories that often are touted by recognized investors
or higher learning institutions and for that reason, they mostly remain
unchallenged. At the top of the list is economic decoupling between emerging and
developed countries. How have emerging market countries fared this year? Is
there any evidence they are decoupling from the rest of the world? And how can
investors make informed and profitable investment decisions in this particular
category? Read on: Emerging Markets Countries that are in the midst of rapid
business growth and industrialization generally are referred to as "emerging
markets." With a combined population of almost 2.5 billion people, China and
India are among the largest emerging-market countries. The theory behind
economic decoupling is that emerging-market countries can prosper and remain
unaffected by adverse financial conditions elsewhere particularly by the
adverse financial conditions of developed countries such as the U.S. Decoupling
has been heavily promoted during the past several years, especially by academic
types in the mainstream press. While decoupling might sound like a plausible
idea, the performance for emerging-market stocks this year doesnt support that
view. The Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE: VWO ) is down more than 19%
year-to-date compared to lower-to-flat performance by the Schwab U.S. Broad
Market ETF (NYSE: SCHB ) and a 14% loss for developed stocks Vanguard MSCI EAFE
ETF (NYSE: VEA ). What about mega emerging-market countries like Brazil, Russia,
India and China? As a group, BRIC country stocks represented by the SPDR S&P
BRIC 40 (ETF) (NYSE: BIK ) are down almost 19% since the beginning of the year.
The iShares S&P India Nifty 50 Index Fund (NASDAQ: INDY ), Market Vector Russia
ETF Trust (NYSE: RSX ) and iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (NYSE: EWZ ) are in
bear market territory, down between 20% to 40% in value. Based upon the stock
markets performance, the theory of economic decoupling isnt holding up, and
neither is the argument of a soft landing. Slowing Growth The high-octane growth
from emerging countries that analysts have been preaching is not as high or as
fast as previously thought. Chinas Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price
Index (PPI) for November were a big disappointment. The year-over-year results
were weaker than projected. CPI was ahead just 4.2% compared to 5.5% in November
2010, and PPI for the same period was 2.7% compared to 5%. Also, declines in
both Chinas CPI and PPI were worse than what economists were projecting. CPI
measures the changes in the price of goods and services bought by consumers,
while PPI measures the changes in the price of goods and services sold by
producers.
Running With The Bulls; 10 Stocks Under $3 Going Against The Grain
I'm constantly on the hunt for solid swing trades like EONC, AXK, ABAT, CXZ,
AMRI, TSON, EVC, GLCH, AMR and PNCL. Normally I try to position before the move
like I did with HDY recently at $3.06 before it ran about 30% the following day,
however, sometimes swimming with the current is an easy way to grab quick
profits too. Swing trading, for those of you who are unaware, is a speculative
activity where stocks are repeatedly bought or sold at or near the end of up or
down price swings caused by price volatility. A swing trading position is
typically held longer than a day, but shorter than trend following trades or buy
and hold investment strategies that can be held for months or years. Many of the
charts below will be short lived opportunities, however, back-testing on this
filter shows some push forward considerably despite being overbought. My filter
for the stocks on this list is between $.25 and $3 with 300 trades or more the
previous day. The following stocks could deliver some decent profits moving
forward if they continue so here's what I'll be watching for. eOn
Communications Corp. ( NASDAQ:EONC ) provides communication solutions in the
North America, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. The balance sheet shows
$1.85 million in cash, $3.7 million in debt and a book value of $2.17 on 2.86
million shares outstanding. EONC has a tiny market cap of $5.7 million and is
well below what I look to trade between $100 $300 million. The Beta is what I
would consider normal around 1.33 but that market cap is the primary reason EONC
has these big bursts followed by gradual fades. If you pull up a 52-week chart
youll see this isnt the first time this year EONC has made a big move. Back in
May it went from $1.44 to $2.10 on day 1 and continued to run from $2.16 to a
high of $3.25 on day 2. Just about a month later it went nova again from $1.66
to $2.33 and continued on day 2 from $2.35 to $3.35. In both situations the
stock managed to run for 1 days which is why it made the list. Certainly hard to
say if it will follow that trend but one thing is for certain, if some sizable
bids show up Thursday this thin stock could certainly squeeze aggressive shorts
before fading. Accelr8 Technology Corp. ( AMEX:AXK ) focuses on the research and
development, and commercialization of proprietary surface chemistry formulation
and quantitative bio-analytical measurement instruments. Another small market
cap at $21.10 million with a Beta of 1.38. The balance sheet shows $775.86
thousand in cash, $0 debt and a book value of $.43 on 11.10 million shares
outstanding. This is a stock I happen to like and have written about before . If
it looks like it can hold this run Ill certainly swing it because the 52-week
chart clearly shows the ability to run for days on end. Advanced Battery
Technologies Inc. ( PINK:ABAT ) engages in the design, manufacture, and
marketing of rechargeable polymer lithium-ion batteries. ABAT has a small market
cap at $50.25 million and a Beta of 1.23. The balance sheet shows $74.04 million
in cash, $0 debt
AMRI, TSON, EVC, GLCH, AMR and PNCL. Normally I try to position before the move
like I did with HDY recently at $3.06 before it ran about 30% the following day,
however, sometimes swimming with the current is an easy way to grab quick
profits too. Swing trading, for those of you who are unaware, is a speculative
activity where stocks are repeatedly bought or sold at or near the end of up or
down price swings caused by price volatility. A swing trading position is
typically held longer than a day, but shorter than trend following trades or buy
and hold investment strategies that can be held for months or years. Many of the
charts below will be short lived opportunities, however, back-testing on this
filter shows some push forward considerably despite being overbought. My filter
for the stocks on this list is between $.25 and $3 with 300 trades or more the
previous day. The following stocks could deliver some decent profits moving
forward if they continue so here's what I'll be watching for. eOn
Communications Corp. ( NASDAQ:EONC ) provides communication solutions in the
North America, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. The balance sheet shows
$1.85 million in cash, $3.7 million in debt and a book value of $2.17 on 2.86
million shares outstanding. EONC has a tiny market cap of $5.7 million and is
well below what I look to trade between $100 $300 million. The Beta is what I
would consider normal around 1.33 but that market cap is the primary reason EONC
has these big bursts followed by gradual fades. If you pull up a 52-week chart
youll see this isnt the first time this year EONC has made a big move. Back in
May it went from $1.44 to $2.10 on day 1 and continued to run from $2.16 to a
high of $3.25 on day 2. Just about a month later it went nova again from $1.66
to $2.33 and continued on day 2 from $2.35 to $3.35. In both situations the
stock managed to run for 1 days which is why it made the list. Certainly hard to
say if it will follow that trend but one thing is for certain, if some sizable
bids show up Thursday this thin stock could certainly squeeze aggressive shorts
before fading. Accelr8 Technology Corp. ( AMEX:AXK ) focuses on the research and
development, and commercialization of proprietary surface chemistry formulation
and quantitative bio-analytical measurement instruments. Another small market
cap at $21.10 million with a Beta of 1.38. The balance sheet shows $775.86
thousand in cash, $0 debt and a book value of $.43 on 11.10 million shares
outstanding. This is a stock I happen to like and have written about before . If
it looks like it can hold this run Ill certainly swing it because the 52-week
chart clearly shows the ability to run for days on end. Advanced Battery
Technologies Inc. ( PINK:ABAT ) engages in the design, manufacture, and
marketing of rechargeable polymer lithium-ion batteries. ABAT has a small market
cap at $50.25 million and a Beta of 1.23. The balance sheet shows $74.04 million
in cash, $0 debt
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