Thursday, September 29, 2011

The Worst-Case Scenario for This Bear Market

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tdp2664 InvestorPlace U.S.markets sold off yesterday after three straight days of gains as the U.S. dollar rallied and commodities fell under heavy volume. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was hit especially hard in the last hour of trading, falling over 150 points as materials stocks fell in response to a sell-off in copper. The major breakout by the dollar earlier this month occurred when it sliced through a triple-top on a breakaway gap that at the time the Sept. 13 Daily Market Outlook identified as a major change of direction for the buck, stocks, and commodities. And even though the angle of the advance for the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE: UUP ) is steep, it is also orderly in that continuation gaps are being regularly closed before the ETF ramps up to its next high propelled by another gap. This is a sign of a major commitment on the part of buyers and a trend change that will not be easily reversed. Yesterday, we considered possible resistance lines that might turn aside the pop that began last Friday as a reflex rally following the breakdown of the bearish flag. But the pop fizzled yesterday, on an impressive selling spree that ended close to the low of the day. And so even before reaching its first line of resistance at the 50-day moving average line, it appears that the rally is over. This sets up the index for an attack on the double-bottom low at 1,114 and 1,101. (If you're looking for some specific options to play the decline, check out my colleague Joe Burns .) The dramatic failure of the index following a half-hearted rally leads to the next question: How low is low? The final target of this bear run could turn out to be a 50% retracement of the entire bull market from 667 to 1,371. If that's true, then we owe Mr. Fibonacci another nod since that number is 1,371 — a number which is very close to last summer's low. For one stock that is advancing despite the market decline, see the Trade of the Day . Today’s Trading Landscape To see a list of the companies reporting earnings today, click here . For a list of this week’s economic reports due out, click here .



Todays Gold price per ounce rates, silver price per ounce Spot gold price per gram spot silver price per ounce

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dow2664 Precious metal gold and silver contract prices dropped back below break-even during the initial half of the last trading session. Gold prices and silver prices have been dropping over the past several weeks and these negative trends continued last session. Stock indices were losing steam as well however as investors were feeling more anxious about the sovereign debt issues stemming from the eurozone marketplace. Investors are worried that European leaders would not take action quickly enough to avoid defaults. Most assumed that the safe haven appeal of precious metal gold will grow in this climate. As the final numbers came together for the end of day close, precious metals gold and silver were in the red again. The three primary stock indices in the U.S. were red as well. The Dow Jones closed out the last session lower by 179.79 at 11,010.90. The dollar lost strength versus the euro and the Japanese yen. Contract gold for December delivery closed out the last session red by 2.08 percent at 1618.10 per troy ounce. December delivery silver moved lower by 4.45 percent at 30.13 per troy ounce. Spot gold and spot silver prices moved below break-even as well. During the interval after last session close but prior to today’s open, spot gold price per gram was lower by 1.90 percent and spot silver price per ounce was lower by 1.96 at 29.53. Camillo Zucari



Todays Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA Index DJX DJI, Nasdaq, S&P 500

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dow2664 The primary stock indices in the U.S. lost steam as the trading session progressed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell back as the day progressed and this negative action was due, in part, to the diminishing amount of confidence investors were feeling regarding the action plan to avoid defaults European leaders were trying to iron out. The details of the plan are unclear and the timeline is making many more nervous by the day. Stocks retreated during the last trading session as a result and ended red across the tracking boards. Specifically, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed out the day on the negative side of break-even by 1.61 percent at 11,010.90. The Nasdaq finished the day negative by 2.17 percent at 2,491.58 and the S&P 500 was negative by 2.07 percent at 1,151.06. Stock index trends experienced a steady retreat during the trading session, closed out red, and ended the three day streak of positive finishes for the primary U.S. stock composites. Thoughts of recession on a global scale dominated the thoughts of investors during the session and ultimately pulled stock trends lower. Additional negative news posted via the durable goods orders report yesterday. The government’s report relayed that durable goods orders for August were lower by .1 percent. The dollar lost strength to the euro and Japanese yen and precious metal gold dropped lower during the session. Frank Matto



Gold Silver and Oil Prices Sharply Fell –Daily Recap September 28

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DG365FD46564GFH654FU898 Gold and silver prices shifted direction again and after they had inclined on Tuesday, they fell again on Wednesday, along with the rest of the financial markets including US stock market . Crude oil prices sharply declined as well; natural gas prices (Henry Hub) also finished yesterday falling. Here is a summary of the price movements of precious metals and energy commodities for September 28th: Precious Metals prices: Gold price changed direction again and sharply fell by 2.08% to $1,618; Silver price also decreased by 4.45% to $30.13. During September, gold prices decreased by 11.7% and silver price shed 27.9% of its value. The EURO to US Dollar exchange rate slightly slipped yesterday by 0.31% to 1.3533 – i.e. the USD appreciated against the EURO. The USD sharply appreciated yesterday against other currencies including the AUD and CAD. During September, the EURO to US Dollar fell by 5.75%. Oil and Gas prices: WTI oil price also sharply declined yesterday by 3.53% to $81.21 per barrel; Brent oil price decreased by 3.96% to $105.20 per barrel; during September the WTI oil price declined by 8.6% and Brent oil price fell by 9.7%. Due these changes, the difference between Brent and WTI slipped



Dollar General Just Became a Great Buy

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tdp2664 InvestorPlace Dollar General (NYSE: DG ) — This leadingU.S. discount retailer has defensive qualities that should help it weather a weak economy. With low operating margins and strong cash flow, earnings are expected to top $2.30 in 2012, up from $1.82 in 2011.



Top 10 Fastest-Growing U.S.-Listed Chinese Stocks: DANG, BIDU, BONA, YOKU, SVN, EJ, XRS, XUE, EDU, FMCN (Sep 28, 2011)

Below are the top 10 fastest-growing U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, based on the
average long-term earnings growth rate estimated by Wall Street analysts. E
Commerce China Dangdang Inc (ADR) (NYSE:DANG) is the first fastest-growing stock
in this segment of the market. Its long-term annual EPS growth is expected to be
58.8%. This number is based on the average estimate of 4 brokerage analysts.
Baidu.com, Inc. (ADR) (NASDAQ:BIDU) is the second fastest-growing stock in this
segment of the market. Its long-term annual EPS growth is expected to be 48.6%.
This number is based on the average estimate of 15 brokerage analysts. Bona Film
Group Ltd (ADR) (NASDAQ:BONA) is the third fastest-growing stock in this segment
of the market. Its long-term annual EPS growth is expected to be 47.6%. This
number is based on the average estimate of 3 brokerage analysts. Youku.com Inc
(ADR) (NYSE:YOKU) is the fourth fastest-growing stock in this segment of the
market. Its long-term annual EPS growth is expected to be 45.0%. This number is
based on the average estimate of 3 brokerage analysts. 7 DAYS GROUP HOLDINGS
LIMITED(ADR) (NYSE:SVN) is the fifth fastest-growing stock in this segment of
the market. Its long-term annual EPS growth is expected to be 36.4%. This number
is based on the average estimate of 3 brokerage analysts. E-House (China)
Holdings Limited (ADR) (NYSE:EJ) is the sixth fastest-growing stock in this
segment of the market. Its long-term annual EPS growth is expected to be 30.5%.
This number is based on the average estimate of 3 brokerage analysts. TAL
Education Group (ADR) (NYSE:XRS) is the seventh fastest-growing stock in this
segment of the market. Its long-term annual EPS growth is expected to be 29.8%.
This number is based on the average estimate of 3 brokerage analysts. Xueda
Education Group (ADR) (NYSE:XUE) is the eighth fastest-growing stock in this
segment of the market. Its long-term annual EPS growth is expected to be 28.9%.
This number is based on the average estimate of 3 brokerage analysts. New
Oriental Education & Tech Grp (ADR) (NYSE:EDU) is the ninth fastest-growing
stock in this segment of the market. Its long-term annual EPS growth is expected
to be 28.7%. This number is based on the average estimate of 7 brokerage
analysts. Focus Media Holding Limited (ADR) (NASDAQ:FMCN) is the 10th
fastest-growing stock in this segment of the market. Its long-term annual EPS
growth is expected to be 26.5%. This number is based on the average estimate of
3 brokerage analysts.

Gold Silver and Oil Prices Sharply Fell –Daily Recap September 28

Gold and silver prices shifted direction again and after they had inclined on
Tuesday, they fell again on Wednesday, along with the rest of the financial
markets including US stock market. Crude oil prices sharply declined as well;
natural gas prices (Henry Hub) also finished yesterday falling. Here is a
summary of the price movements of precious metals and energy commodities for
September 28th: Precious Metals prices: Gold price changed direction again and
sharply fell by 2.08% to $1,618; Silver price also decreased by 4.45% to $30.13.
During September, gold prices decreased by 11.7% and silver price shed 27.9% of
its value. The EURO to US Dollar exchange rate slightly slipped yesterday by
0.31% to 1.3533 i.e. the USD appreciated against the EURO. The USD sharply
appreciated yesterday against other currencies including the AUD and CAD. During
September, the EURO to US Dollar fell by 5.75%. Oil and Gas prices: WTI oil
price also sharply declined yesterday by 3.53% to $81.21 per barrel; Brent oil
price decreased by 3.96% to $105.20 per barrel; during September the WTI oil
price declined by 8.6% and Brent oil price fell by 9.7%. Due these changes, the
difference between Brent and WTI slipped

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