Saturday, August 6, 2011

3 Luxury Stocks to Sell Now

I never like to sell stocks when there is fear in the streets as there is
today. The market plunge Thursday increased the fear in the market to
apocalyptic levels. For the most part, I would be a buyer in this environment.
Some really good stocks with quality earnings like Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ), Google
(NASDAQ: GOOG ) and others trade for very reasonable prices. Corporate earnings
are strong and growing. Guidance for the future is positive. Companies are
buying back stock and paying huge dividends. Despite the agreement to lower
spending in return for a debt ceiling increase, government dollars continue to
flow into the economy. More is likely on the way. The same is true with the
Federal Reserve. The effects of QE2 have yet to fully hit the economy. Given the
potential for a double-dip recession, the odds for QE3 have increased greatly.
The outlook might not be rosy, but it is not as gloomy as the market is
currently projecting. I fully expect a strong rebound in stocks before the end
of the year. That said, there is one category of stocks that I am bearish on at
the moment: the luxury category, which has enjoyed a run that, frankly, has
defied gravity. At a time when most budgets are constrained, spending on luxury
goods has continued to grow. So too have the profits for many companies selling
luxury goods. As the profits have grown, stocks of luxury companies have been
strong performers in this market. What I find odd about the whole luxury sector
is subtle. During the last economic expansion, the story on luxury stocks was
that these companies were pushing their goods downstream. The ability to
increase sales by selling to the middle class was the investment thesis for
buying luxury stocks. Now, with the middle class evaporating before our eyes,
the story has changed. The investment thesis today is that the rich are
nonplussed by the economic events around the globe. The wealthy class is
expanding, and it continues to spend. Perhaps the rich are spending even more.
Luxury stocks then will be insulated from any recessionary pressures in the
market. I don't like it when stories change. A shift in investment thesis is
altogether too convenient. Given that it is Wall Street that promotes these
investment stories, I am even more skeptical. You simply cannot have it both
ways with luxury stocks. While I would have preferred selling these stocks
before the collapse, there is more room for them to fall. Wall Street may defend
these names, claiming that they can avoid the double dip, but I would not buy
that line. The growth story for luxury required a strong middle class and we are
far and falling further away from having that. Here are three luxury stocks to
sell now:

The World is Ending and Stocks are Plunging (Again)

The major news magazines want you to know that The Debt Crisis Is Even Worse
than You Think (last weeks cover of BusinessWeek , printed in red ink), or that
Europe and the United States are now Turning Japanese in a New Politics of
Paralysis (the cover of The Economist ). Their implication, of course, is that
this has never happened before. We are in uncharted waters, so your wealth is at
risk. On the surface, this scary story is an easy sell. On Tuesday, stocks fell
for the seventh day in a row. The Dow fell 266 points, its worst day since Aug.
11, 2010. On the same day, gold soared to $1,660 per ounce, an all-time high,
even though oil fell 1.2% to $93.79. Then, on Wednesday, the mood worsened. The
Dow fell another 150 points on the opening and gold gained $12 to $1672 (while
oil sank to $92). Wednesday closed slightly up, breaking the string of eight
straight negative days, but Thursday was much worse, with the Dow down more than
512 points, while NASDAQ and the S&P fell nearly 5% on average. Even gold took a
tumble, falling $15 to $1,650, and oil fell more than $5 to $86. Meanwhile,
90-day T-bills offer just 0.01%, while two-year Treasuries sank to a record-low
0.27%. The yield curve is orderly but deflationary: Five-year Treasury yields
fell to 1.09%, 10-years to 2.42% and the 30-year fell to 3.68%. All of a sudden,
it looks like the bull market of nearly 30 months is over and hurricane season
has begun. Lets seek some balance on yesterdays news. Lets look at both sides of
the story. True, the government doesnt know how to balance its budget, but U.S.
corporations have stockpiled trillions of dollars in excess cash. We have high
jobless rates, but the flip side of that fact is that companies are getting more
done with fewer people. True, the U.S. economy is growing slowly, but corporate
earnings are soaring. While the big headlines say that the U.S. GDP rose only
1.3% last quarter, the revenues and earnings of the 393 (78.6%) reporting S&P
500 companies are both up by an astonishing 13% over the second quarter last
year. Thats tenfold faster than GDP growth! And if you exclude the sick
financial sector, revenues are up 15.6% and earnings are up 22.2%! So far, the
S&P earnings are 6.4% above analysts estimates! These stellar earnings show no
sign of slowing. Analysts now expect to see even stronger double-digit earnings
growth in the third and fourth quarters, in all categories. According to
economist Ed Yardeni, large-cap forward earnings have risen in 42 of the past 44
weeks, mid-cap forward earnings have risen in 20 of the past 21 weeks and
small-cap forward earnings have risen in 42 of the past 47 weeks. How can
corporations keep growing while the domestic economy is anemic and government is
clueless? Most major U.S. businesses are multinational, so they can profit from
the double whammy of a rapidly growing global economy and a weak U.S. dollar.
Companies can cut costs; governments apparently cant. Bottom line, the market is
not likely to keep falling sharply while earnings keep rising. In the last
double-dip recession (1979-82), corporate earnings were falling. Thats not
happening now, and its not likely to happen for the next few quarters at least.
In addition, the stock market always rises in the third year of the four-year
presidential cycle. With the S&P now under water for the year so far, this
election cycle history implies a late-year 2011 recovery like what began last
August, after the Fed announced its QE2 plans.

Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) Announces New Gmail Update

Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) has announced Gmail preview pane. Google Inc.
(NASDAQ:GOOG) Announces New Gmail Update The search engine giant has announced a
new labs effort that will enable a preview pane feature in Gmail. As the feature
is something that has been a long-time part of Microsoft Outlook and other
leading web mail services, many users had requested such a capability on Google
Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG)'s email service. Users can enable and test the feature via
the Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) test lab. Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) shares were at
577.52 at the end of the last days trading. Theres been a 12.2% change in the
stock price over the past 3 months. Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) Analyst Advice
Consensus Opinion: Moderate Buy Mean recommendation: 1.25 (1=Strong Buy,
5=Strong Sell) 3 Months Ago: 1.26 Zacks Rank: 8 out of 31 in the industry

Look for Lower Silver and Gold Prices

Gold Price Close Today : 1,648.80 Gold Price Close 29-Jul : 1,628.30 Change :
20.50 or 1.3% Silver Price Close Today : 3819.7 Silver Price Close 29-Jul :
4009.2 Change : -189.50 or -4.7% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 43.166 Gold Silver
Ratio 29-Jul : 40.614 Change : 2.55 or 6.3% Silver Gold Ratio : 0.02317 Silver
Gold Ratio 29-Jul : 0.02462 Change : -0.00146 or -5.9% Dow in Gold Dollars : $
143.65 Dow in Gold Dollars 29-Jul : $ 154.16 Change : $ (10.51) or -6.8% Dow in
Gold Ounces : 6.949 Dow in Gold Ounces 29-Jul : 7.458 Change : -0.51 or -6.8%
Dow in Silver Ounces : 299.97 Dow in Silver Ounces 29-Jul : 302.88 Change :
-2.91 or -1.0% Dow Industrial : 11,457.93 Dow Industrial 29-Jul : 12,143.24
Change : -685.31 or -5.6% S&P 500 : 1,201.16 S&P 500 29-Jul : 1,292.28 Change :
-91.12 or -7.1% US Dollar Index : 74.489 US Dollar Index 29-Jul : 73.868 Change
: 0.621 or 0.8% Platinum Price Close Today : 1,719.00 Platinum Price Close
29-Jul : 1,778.10 Change : -59.10 or -3.3% Palladium Price Close Today : 740.10
Palladium Price Close 29-Jul : 826.10 Change : -86.00 or -10.4% Despite the
turmoil this week, the Gold Price managed to gain $20.50, while the Silver Price
took a bad whupping with a barbed wire whip, but nothing compared to stocks. The
PLATINUM PRICE tanked and PALLADIUM PRICE busted. Leave them alone. Can you
picture how the phone lines are heating up from central bank to central bank
around the world? Hot enough to fry peppers. Poor Nice Government Men, trying to
prop up the euro and stop that money from flying into their own currency.
Japanese were brash enough to come out and announce it. US Dollar Index today
lost 63.5 basis points to 74.489, down 0.82%. Gave back half of what it gained
yesterday. THIS is how NGM "stabilize" markets. Despite all, Dollar Index has
certainly not broken down and is still grinding out a bottom from which to stage
a rally. Remember than in 2008 dollar rallied from 76.15 in late September to
88.19 in November. Panic does that. Euro mysteriously rose today to close
1.4291, up 1.35%. A great Potemkin currency. Look for 120. Yen regained some of
yesterday's huge loss, closing Y78.43/$ (127.51c/Y100). Still below 20 day
moving average and still with that samurai sword hanging over it. I was just
curious what the measured targets of those head and shoulders formations in the
S&P500 and Dow might be, so I calculated them: 10,904 for the Dow and 1,140 for
the S&P500. Now I know the problem with watching markets is that we grow too
pessimistic when the market's dropping and too optimistic when it's rising. You
might see a sudden rally back up to 12,000. Might. But 10,904 isn't far from
here, either. Dow rose 0.65% or 74.25 points today to close at 11,457.93. Muse a
moment. January 2000 sic high was 11,722. Ten years later, stocks are still
where they were. Merely to have stayed even with inflation the Dow would have to
be 15,365. That's nearly a 25% purchasing power loss. In the same time they've
lost over 80% against gold and silver. Stocks -- like sending out for the barber
to bleed you when you have pneumonia. The Gold Price couldn't quite make up its
mind today, ranging from 1670 to 1647.75, but closed near the day's low on Comex
at $1,648.80, down $7.40. Then in the aftermarket it kept climbing to $1,663.
Don't get too excited about that. It can well be explained as shorts covering
before the weekend in what may be a world wide panic. Anyway, it didn't take
gold high enough to do anything more than establish a downtrend with a lower
high. The Gold Price has drawn its line in the sand at $1,640. Strong support
lurks at $1,605. If gold closes above $1,680, that will tell us it has decided
to RISE during this financial crisis instead of falling. Look for lower Gold
PriceS. If I contented myself with saying silver had lost 189.5c from Friday to
Friday, I would be calling King Kong a "fair-sized monkey." From the week's high
close at 4174.7c silver lost 355c to close Comex today at 3819.7c. It lost
122.1c today. Gold/Silver ratio closed at 43.166, up a full ounce from
yesterday. Silver had a huge 230c range today from 3981 to 3749. After
yesterday's huge waterfall silver's bounce was tiny, and regained nothing.
Climbed in the aftermarket a little, but clearing books for the looming weekend
explains that. The Silver Price will move lower. First target is the 200 day
moving average, now at 3366c. Any close above 4175c gainsays that. The mess in
Europe is not fixable. The banks might be cobbled together again, but not
without swift, decisive measures. Of all the EU government and EC responses,
none have been swift and decisive. Since they have only two weapons, Liquidity
and Blarney, they have only one choice: PRINT MORE MONEY. Caught in the deadly
contagion of crisis and panic in the interwebbed world of Globalism they
themselves have woven, US authorities will respond with the same weapon: PRINT
MORE MONEY. This will worsen all the economic problems, perhaps even ushering in
a hyperinflationary depression. In the immediate future there's better than a
50/50 chance Europe will drag the US into crisis. Here are my suggestions for
self-protection: 1. Get liquid. Pay down debt as much as you can. Sell
non-performing investments, like stocks, or investments that will suffer from
depression or inflation. 2. Close out leveraged positions. Markets are way too
volatile for that. 3. Hold on to silver and gold. 4. Hang on to cash
anticipating great bargains in a crisis. Remember gold went to $700 and silver
to 880c. Gold/silver ratio went to 84, offering a great gold to silver swap. Not
expecting those numbers again, but we might see the analogs. 5. Fill up propane
tanks, home gasoline or diesel tanks. 6. Stock up on food -- long term storage
food, not smoked oysters and tomato soup. Rice, for instance. Dehydrated food.
MREs. 7. Stock up on ammo. 8. Get out of the city, or at least have a country
place waiting to receive you. Don't wait, and don't misunderstand. The numbers
above are NOT my targets for silver and gold. As yet I am not even sure gold
will act as it did the last time, plummeting while the dollar rocketed. Maybe
gold will drain off some of that flight to quality from the dollar. Don't be
fooled by my calm words, either. Y'all are reading the equivalent of an air raid
siren, and y'all had better run for cover. MILK NAZIS STRIKE AGAIN! Government
guardians of the public health are at it again, arresting the owners of Rawesome
Foods in Los Angeles and even the head of the local Weston A. Price Foundation
chapter. What called forth the SWAT team? Milk. Deadly raw milk. You see, in Los
Angeles the murder rate is so low, and drug traffic so rare, the authorities
have time to focus on the real criminals who dare to sell raw milk, which, after
all, has not yet been proven safe in the 6,500 years mankind has been guzzling
it. If the government didn't stop this insolent crime why, health might break
out all over, and what would we do then? Who would drink the High Fructose Corn
Syrup soft drinks? Who would take all Big Pharma's drugs? It would be a national
catastrophe. The purpose of all regulation is to stifle competition. Milk is the
most consumed food in the US. Who subsidizes the milk industry that produces all
that dead and deadly pasteurized milk? Whoops -- the US government. My dear
friend Catherine Austin Fitts published an article today analyzing the effect of
stifling competition. Y'all will want to go read it at
http://solari.com/blog/?p=13360 . Don't miss it. Y'all enjoy your weekend.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. -
Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com © 2011, The
Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically,
without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the
comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary
trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's
primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend
is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or
US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary
trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask,
"Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't. Be advised and
warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend
them for that or write them with that outlook. I write them for long-term
investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing
service for futures.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) Making Money From Android

It has been reported that Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)'s Android
business brings in three times as much money as Windows Phone. Microsoft
Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) Making Money From Android The fact may seem a bit
shocking, but it's true, for the major income of the software giant is not
from its own mobile operating system, but rather patent revenues from the sales
of other manufacturers' products. Even amid recent patent disputes with
rivals, including Apple and Google, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) has been
making a big amount from the mobile OS patent licenses it already holds.
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) shares were at 25.94 at the end of the last days
trading. Theres been a 3.3% change in the stock price over the past 3 months.
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) Analyst Advice Consensus Opinion: Moderate Buy
Mean recommendation: 1.84 (1=Strong Buy, 5=Strong Sell) 3 Months Ago: 1.78 Zacks
Rank: 24 out of 90 in the industry

Gold prices silver price per ounce todays spot gold price per gram spot silver price per kilo; gold silver investing stock market today

The marketplace was choppy and volatile yesterday and the major index
composites ended the day mixed. Gold and silver prices ended the day lower as
they closed in negative territory. Red was the hue observed across the majority
of the primary metal board. The safe havens did not get as much attention during
the last session as expected. It was a bad week for stocks, one of the worst
weeks in the past couple years. The GDP was weak. The consumer spending report
was weak. The manufacturing report was weak. The added jobs were below the
number needed to keep pace with population growth. All these economic posts
pushed stocks lower. Seemingly a prime environment for precious metal gold to
prosper. It did not however. Gold contract for December delivery fell lower by
.43 percent or 7.20 to close out at 1651.80 per troy ounce. Silver for September
delivery dropped lower by 3.09 percent per troy ounce. After last session close,
spot gold and spot silver prices were moving in divergent directions. Spot gold
price per gram was moving higher by .23 at 53.48 and spot gold price per kilo
was higher by 231.16 at 53479.23. Spot silver price per kilo was higher by 35.37
at 1231.95 and spot silver price per ounce was higher by 1.10 at 38.32. Camillo
Zucari

DJIA Index DJX Dow Jones DJI, Nasdaq, S&P 500 Close Review Stock Market Today Invest Money Profit News

Stock market trends were volatile during the last session in the U.S. and the
major index composites ended the session mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
ended the day up and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 ended lower. The DJIA was down by
.54 percent on the day and closed at 11,444.61. The Nasdaq closed out red by .94
percent and finished off the day at 2,532.41. The S&P 500 closed out in negative
territory as well by .06 percent at 1,199.38. The good news came early as the
jobs data posted and was initially received as positive. The job market gained
strength by adding 117,000 jobs in July. This number far surpassed what most
economists were anticipating. The national unemployment rate also ratcheted
lower by a tenth of a percent. This economic news skewed positive but when
compared to the number of jobs that many experts feel is necessary to keep pace
with population growth, it still fell short. Economists feel that at least
150,000 jobs need to be added on a monthly basis to keep pace with population
growth. This news was not enough to make those on Wall Street forget the other
inadequate reports that posted within the last six open trading days. The weight
of the weaker GDP, manufacturing and consumer spending reports continue to weigh
on investors not to mention the worries stemming from global debt concerns. The
week ended as one of the worst weeks for stock trends in recent years. All three
major indices were negative for the week. The DJI was lower by almost 6 percent.
The Nasdaq lower by 8 percent and the S&P 500 lower by 7 percent for the week.
To top it off, the U.S. is at risk of losing its triple A credit rating. Frank
Matto

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