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Friday, January 20, 2012
Todays Gold price per ounce; Spot gold price per gram Price of Gold and Spot silver price per ounce trends today
session in the green. Investors were worried that the better than expected U.S.
economic data this week would push the price of the safe havens lower as the
week culminated. According to floor and electronic price analysis as of last
session close, gold and silver price trend-line movement last session was
positive. Both gold and silver contracts closed out the final session of the
week on the positive side of break-even. Gold price per ounce and Silver price
per ounce Close Review: Gold contract for February delivery finished higher last
session by .57 percent and posted a floor price of 1664 per troy ounce.
Electronic price close for gold contract was higher by .18 percent at 1667 per
troy ounce. Silver contract for March delivery closed the last session higher by
3.82 percent at 31.68 per troy ounce. Electronic price close for Silver contract
was green by 1.58 percent at 32.18 per troy ounce. Spot Silver price per ounce
and spot gold price per gram: After last session close, spot gold and spot
silver price trend-lines moved positively. Spot gold price per gram was posting
higher by .37 at 53.56 and spot silver price per ounce was posting higher by
1.62 at 32.13. Camillo Zucari
Zynga Gets Serious About Mobile Games
rough ride since its IPO last December, something it hopes the acquisition of
four mobile video game companies will help address. The purchases, which took
place from August through December 2011, were confirmed on Jan. 18 by Zynga's
chief mobile officer, David Ko. Zynga now owns San Francisco-based Page 44
Studios and HipLogic, New York-based Astro Ape Studios and Game Doctors , a
German company. Fans of Facebook have been playing wildly popular Zynga games
such as FarmVille , Words with Friends and Mafia Wars since 2007, and the
companys games consistently attract more players than those of any other
developer for the platform. Facebook analytics firm AppData reports that Zynga
applications draw an average of almost 222.5 million users per month, crushing
the next-largest developer at under 68 million monthly users. However, despite
having 66 games in release for Facebook, Zynga has been less successful in
translating casual games played on social media sites to paid apps for mobile
devices. Many of its most popular titles have been ported to mobile gaming
platforms but theyre free, relying for revenue on in-app purchases of Zynga
virtual currency and game credits. Three of the four companies Zynga picked up
have developed successful game apps sold through Apple s (NASDAQ: AAPL ) App
Store and the Android Market, including hit premium titles such as the
award-winning World of Goo , which has sold over a million copies, and Game
Doctors' ZombieSmash
Top 10 Retail Stocks with Highest Upside: SPCHA, LAS, GAIA, CBK, ZLC, GOLF, VVTV, FLWS, MCOX, CMRG (Jan 20, 2012)
difference between current price and Wall Street analysts average target price.
Two Chinese companies (LAS, MCOX) are on the list. Sport Chalet, Inc.
(NASDAQ:SPCHA) has the 1st highest upside potential in this segment of the
market. Its upside is 242.9%. Its consensus target price is $6.00 based on the
average of all estimates. Lentuo International Inc (ADR) (NYSE:LAS) has the 2nd
highest upside potential in this segment of the market. Its upside is 201.5%.
Its consensus target price is $8.89 based on the average of all estimates.
Gaiam, Inc. (NASDAQ:GAIA) has the 3rd highest upside potential in this segment
of the market. Its upside is 142.0%. Its consensus target price is $8.69 based
on the average of all estimates. Christopher & Banks Corporation (NYSE:CBK) has
the 4th highest upside potential in this segment of the market. Its upside is
138.1%. Its consensus target price is $4.83 based on the average of all
estimates. Zale Corporation (NYSE:ZLC) has the 5th highest upside potential in
this segment of the market. Its upside is 131.2%. Its consensus target price is
$6.75 based on the average of all estimates. Golfsmith International Holdings,
Inc. (NASDAQ:GOLF) has the 6th highest upside potential in this segment of the
market. Its upside is 120.6%. Its consensus target price is $7.50 based on the
average of all estimates. ValueVision Media, Inc. (NASDAQ:VVTV) has the 7th
highest upside potential in this segment of the market. Its upside is 108.3%.
Its consensus target price is $3.33 based on the average of all estimates.
1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. (NASDAQ:FLWS) has the 8th highest upside potential in
this segment of the market. Its upside is 91.6%. Its consensus target price is
$5.00 based on the average of all estimates. Mecox Lane Limited ADR
(NASDAQ:MCOX) has the 9th highest upside potential in this segment of the
market. Its upside is 88.2%. Its consensus target price is $2.33 based on the
average of all estimates. Casual Male Retail Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:CMRG) has the
10th highest upside potential in this segment of the market. Its upside is
80.2%. Its consensus target price is $6.00 based on the average of all
estimates.
SuperValu’s Earnings Message: Stay Away from Grocers!
have thin margins, and they are under increasing attacks from competitors .
SuperValu s (NYSE: SVU ) recent earnings report demonstrates all the reasons why
grocery stocks are losers. The question you should ask is, Then should I buy the
competitors? The answer lies in the comparisons I'm about to make. Depending
on what part of the country you live in, SuperValu operates under the Acme,
Albertsons, Cub Foods, Farm Fresh, Hornbacher's, Jewel-Osco, Lucky, Shaw's,
Shop 'n Save, Shoppers Food & Pharmacy or Star Market banners. During the past
four years, the company has lost more than $2.5 billion. Whereas FY 2008 brought
in $44.5 billion in revenue, FY 2011 looks closer to $36 billion. Because the
company is losing money at the operations level, that means the half-billion
dollars in annual debt service is just barely covered by its cash flow after
backing out depreciation. With only a couple hundred million of cash on hand, it
cant afford to make any mistakes. People point to the generous 5% yield, but I
dont believe that is sustainable. Earnings will be flat for 2012 with only 6%
annualized growth expected for the long term. Now, compare that to whats going
on with two important competitors. The first is a company I love Whole Foods
Market (NASDAQ: WFM ). The Buy Organic propaganda machine has so effectively
taken hold of the American imagination that it has propelled Whole Foods into
the stratosphere, and its now the big brand name of that sector. While regular
grocers struggle to make money at all, Whole Foods has operating margins twice
the size, and net margins almost three times larger. While the grocers carry
billions of dollars in debt, Whole Foods has only $17 million of it, and over
$840 million in cash. Why? Because grocers are trying to be all things to all
people. Whole Foods has chosen to own a niche, where it can be most things to
most people while also relying on a massive marketing machine that is obviously
far more effective. In other words, why buy the horse and buggy of a standard
grocer when you can buy the race car that is Whole Foods? This brings us to yet
another problem for the grocers the dollar stores . Hoo, boy! It took a long
time, but those companies finally realized that the way to consumers hearts was
to offer them more food and beverage choices, particularly in a bad economy.
This new focus has propelled the dollar chains across the board. Ninety-Nine
Cent Stores just got bought out by a private investment consortium. Hedge fund
genius Bill Ackman has purchased a massive stake in Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO ),
and my personal favorite, Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR ), is at an all-time high.
And this is all coming at traditional grocers expense and that includes
SuperValu. If you dont believe me, just look again at SVUs earnings report and
try not to gag. As of this writing, Lawrence Meyers did not hold a position in
any of the aforementioned stocks.
Iran’s War on Barbie Dolls
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tdp2664 InvestorPlace What about Ken? CNBC.com reports that Iranian police have been confiscating Mattel ‘s (NASDAQ: MAT ) Barbie dolls from toy stores in Tehran — and shutting the stores down — as part of a recent Islamist crackdown on Western cultural influences. Barbie dolls have been banned in Iran since the mid-1990s, but interest in them — along with all things Western — doesn’t seem to have dampened in the years since, especially among young people. Meanwhile, Iran’s official state TV airs several Western and Hollywood films every week. More on this story at CNBC.com .
Morgan Stanley & BAC: I Still Say “Stay Away”
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tdp2664 InvestorPlace At first blush, it looked as if Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS ) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC ), two stocks I called “Duds” on Wednesday , had proved me wrong. Both stocks were up more than 4% on their earnings announcements yesterday morning, and some analysts predicted that their operating results are good news for the entire financial sector. Not so fast, I say. Bank of America is the big story — way up thanks to surprising profits of nearly $1.6 billion. That is a surprise when you consider that a year ago, BAC’s quarterly loss was roughly that amount. But look behind the numbers, and the story becomes less upbeat. For starters, there’s trouble at the heart of BAC’s business. While some costs were cut and credit reserves for bad loans declined, the investment bank unit’s numbers were u-g-l-y. Trading plunged 73% from the prior year, and investment banking fees fell 34%. Making up for these shortfalls were big asset sales — the kind of one-time events that may make this quarter look good but can’t be repeated. Among these one-time items were a $2.9 billion gain from the sale of China Construction Bank shares, a $1.2 billion gain from a massive exchange of debt and a smaller gain from the sale of some Canadian credit-card operations. To see what’s really going on at a company like BAC, I look at metrics that aren’t obscured by big one-time events. On my scorecard, Bank of America gets a failing grade on Sales Growth, Return on Equity and Cash Flow. Plus, the last few weeks of buying pressure on the stock isn’t anything to write home about, so it’s very unlikely that today’s move will be sustainable. My analysis says that the rot runs deep at Bank of America and needs a lot more time to be worked out. Steer clear. Now let’s look at Morgan Stanley. Despite yesterday’s pop in the shares, the picture here is also not good. Revenue is down 26%, institutional-securities division revenues are down 42%, and profits…well, there were no profits. MS lost $227 million for the quarter. Now, a big chunk of this loss was related to settling a long-running legal clash over bond insurer MBIA. And the loss is smaller than what analysts were expecting. Still, the signs of weakness in Morgan’s core operations are clear and cannot be ignored. My stock-grading system gives Morgan a “D” on the critical factor of Return on Equity. More importantly, MS gets an “F” on my quantitative metric. One quarter of results that are not as bad as we thought doesn’t outweigh those facts, so I won’t be buying any MS shares anytime soon, and neither should you.
The Gold Price Utterly Blasted my Expectations Today, Closing Up 2 Percent for the Week at $1,663.70
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DG365FD46564GFH654FU898 Gold Price Close Today : 1,663.70 Gold Price Close 13-Jan : 1,630.60 Change : 33.10 or 2.0% Silver Price Close Today : 3164.7 Silver Price Close 13-Jan : 2949.3 Change : 215.40 or 7.3% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.571 Gold Silver Ratio 13-Jan : 55.288 Change : -2.72 or -4.9% Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01902 Silver Gold Ratio 13-Jan : 0.01809 Change : 0.00093 or 5.2% Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 158.05 Dow in Gold Dollars 13-Jan : $ 157.48 Change : $ 0.57 or 0.4% Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.646 Dow in Gold Ounces 13-Jan : 7.618 Change : 0.03 or 0.4% Dow in Silver Ounces : 401.95 Dow in Silver Ounces 13-Jan : 421.19 Change : -19.24 or -4.6% Dow Industrial : 12,720.48 Dow Industrial 13-Jan : 12,422.21 Change : 298.27 or 2.4% S&P 500 : 1,315.38 S&P 500 13-Jan : 1,289.10 Change : 26.28 or 2.0% US Dollar Index : 80.155 US Dollar Index 13-Jan : 81.531 Change : -1.376 or -1.7% Platinum Price Close Today : 1,530.50 Platinum Price Close 13-Jan : 1,485.80 Change : 44.70 or 3.0% Palladium Price Close Today : 673.85 Palladium Price Close 13-Jan : 636.70 Change : 37.15 or 5.8% The GOLD PRICE and SILVER PRICE utterly blasted my expectations today, and crushed underfoot any suspicion of a key reversal from yesterday. Yet here, too, lurk two different stories, subtle, but not quite agreeing. Let’s take the SILVER PRICE first. It vaulted 116.5c (3.8%) today to close Comex at 3164.7c. It brushed that 3060c resistance aside like the Terminator flinging cops right and left, and climbed straight up. Never sank lower than 3029c today, and at its apogee reached 3191c. Notice, too, that it closed near the top of that range. Internally more was going on than just that. SILVER jumped over the hurdle of its 50 DMA (3103c) and o’erleapt and internal resistance line. Let’s just say silver’s shirt is full of starch. Gives me a headache to think about it, looking at the weekly chart: have I missed the low in silver? Wait, wait, there’s also such a thing as a false breakout, and toward the end of metals’ rallies silver always tends to outrun gold. Either way, Silver’s next stubborn resistance hangs in the sky overhead at 3400c. It could make that leap next week. However, if Monday comes a cropper and silver loses 200c or so, you’ll know it was a false breakout. Otherwise, buy it at the market. But listen as the GOLD PRICE speaks out of both sides of its mouth. It closed today up $9.60, higher than yesterday, at $1,663.7, new high close for the move, but did not today post a new intraday high. High reached only $1,666. Why didn’t gold punch through $1,670 when silver was so manic? I don’t know. Maybe it means nothing, maybe it only means that resistance there is very strong and gold will play catch-up next week, maybe the NGM take offense and react when gold reaches $1,670. But look here: if gold pierces that $1,680 next week, and then works through $1,705, stop waiting and buy. The bottom has passed, a new rally has started. Dear friends, listen and ponder: the GOLD and SILVER bull market is yet young. The public has not yet climbed aboard, and only a few investment professionals. What we have seen so far is pasty, bland cottage cheese compared to what is coming. Don’t be caught standing around trying to make your mind up, only to watch silver and gold run away. Within the markets are planted automatic circuit breakers, set to explode Humility Bombs whenever you begin to believe that you have things figured out. I stepped on those mines today. What a week! SILVER gained — look! — 7.3%, while GOLD moved up only 2%. Dow gained more than gold, 2.4%, platinum augmented 3% (a word for you engineers out there), and palladium added 5.8%. Dollar index dropped 1.7%, and probably broke its rally’s back. I love kids, but mine were always easy to catch whenever they were doing something wrong. If I got one alone and asked him what he had been doing, he said one thing. When another said something else, I knew I wasn’t getting the story whole. It’s the same way with markets. When markets that SHOULD confirm don’t, some monkey business is afoot behind the scenes. So today I ask myself, how could the Dow rise 96.5 points (0.76%) while the broader S&P500 rose only 0.88 (0.07%)? And when the Dow rose 3/4%, why did the Nasdaq and Nasdaq-100 DROP? Somebody’s story doesn’t match here, and when that happens with markets, the larceny of Nice Government Men pops instantly to mind. I don’t want to become one of those imagination-challenged boors who blames everything on government intervention, but that doesn’t mean they don’t intervene. And we KNOW they have a special group, the President’s Working Group on Markets, set up in the Reagan reign to manipulate the stock market. I suspect they treat the Dow, the most widely watched stock index, as a kind of Potemkin village for the economy, a number they try to keep perky so we mushrooms will feel good and not panic. Anyhow, the Dow (if not the S&P500 or Nasdaq), has penetrated overhead resistance. If the move is real, then stocks ought to advance smartly, not dragging feet. We’ll see. None of this, lest you conclude otherwise, changes my long term view of stocks, which are locked in a bear market (primary downtrend). If it’s a rally, this, too, shall pass, and more diving shall follow. Dow today ended at 12,720.48, up 96.50 or 0.76%. S&P 500 closed 1,315.38, up 0.88 (0.07%). I bet y’all wonder why I waste good electrons talking about the scrofulous US dollar index and scabby euro and scurvy yen. Easy: they are the chief competitors to silver and gold. Their course offers guidance where the metals are headed, and chronicles the metals’ ongoing war of annihilation against all the phony fiat currencies in the world. Dollar ended the day down only 6.1 basis points (0.08%) at 80.155, thus capping a week of disaster. Dollar index smashed through its uptrend line today. That does not guarantee twill proceed lower, as it did the same for several days early this month and again in December, but whenever a market breaks a trend line or resistance, the presumption states it will continue in that direction. Anyway, think about the backdrop. The world’s states are engaged in a very polite war of competitive devaluation, trying to build their own economies at their neighbor’s expense. Everyone smiles and bows and says they’re working together, but back in the office they are figuring out how to lower their currency’s value. Truth is, neither the Bernancubus nor the White House Toad want an appreciating dollar. Worse, they’ve had a fight on their hands as scared money poured out of the euro all summer, headed for refuge in US treasuries and driving up the dollar. For what technical analysis is worth under these manipulated circumstances, today the dollar index fell through both its uptrend line AND the 20 day moving average (80.51). That targets a fall at least to the 50 DMA (79.39), although some support lingers around 79.70 – 79.85. Euro today closed lower as traders took profits out of their week, 1.2931, down 0.23%. Yen changed nothing, up 0.11% at 129.83c/Y100 (Y77.03/US$1). Also, I have learned that altogether y’all know almost everything in the world, so I have a question. Anybody know where I can find a slightly used 10 – 20 kilowatt PROPANE generator, a good brand like Kohler? Drop me an email if you do, please. Again I must confess, I just don’t get it. I heard a lady from South Carolina on National Proletarian Radio (voice of Socialism Worldwide). They are voting in the meaningless Republican primary for president this weekend, you know, the one with the Invisible Candidate (R*n P**l). This lady lives in a county with 12% unemployed, and she said they needed to elect somebody who could help them. I gasped for air. Doesn’t she understand that the government is the REASON we suffer economic turmoil and instability? Rotten money? With all due respect, when did anybody from any government ever help anybody? Of the three greatest lies in the world, the first on the list is, “Hi! I’m from the government, and I’m here to help you.” All government money comes with a sock in the jaw. All government help comes with ropes, chains, and shackles. I don’t get it. Why can I see this, and somebody from South Carolina (of all places!) not see it? When are folks going to wake up grasp that the government cavalry is NOT coming, and you don’t want ‘em to? If anybody is going to help us, it will have to be US, and we have to start by re-building our own local economies, working to restore our neighbor’s prosperity as well as our own, building on a sound foundation of clean local food grown by local people. That’s just for starters. I just don’t get it. We’re standing on acres of diamonds, and people still want to call in the government to screw everything up even more than they already have. Y’all enjoy your weekend! Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt — – Gold and silver must be bought. – Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com © 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold’s primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver’s primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks’ primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don’t intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.